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Queencitywx

1/16-1/17 Event OBS

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Either the radar is lying, or the HRRR is not modelling any of this back banding and we have a small surprise coming.

 

Small surprise at the least. Ratios rapidly climbing to the 15:1 and soon 20:1 mark

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1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said:

“Trust me, not a big deal”

He certainly wasn’t the only one though!




.

Big shout out to Eric Webb - I think he was the first big vocal proponent for the upside potential

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Just now, Poimen said:

That band in the Triad is oriented in such a way that its pretty much stationary over my area. The snow is light but everything is adding up. 

yeah with the cold air aloft we will get the most out of this extra stuff

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13 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Either the radar is lying, or the HRRR is not modelling any of this back banding and we have a small surprise coming.

Noticed that too.  It hasn’t been showing that moving through intact to any significant degree.

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12 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Either the radar is lying, or the HRRR is not modelling any of this back banding and we have a small surprise coming.

Radar really going nuts actually, 20-25 DBZ in a band thats probably seeing ratios climb to 15-20:1 heck might even be good for another 1-2"...we had something like that happen in the Dec 2000 storm here, everyone thought it was over then a new band formed and dumped 2-3" on us in a hour and half. That a lot of new development on radar in the last hr, again this ULL is for real. 

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Can't say this band is that exciting where I am, also southern Durham. There are flakes and they are falling, but it's not a lot.

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1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

Awesome CR! I ended with 4.3" which was over GSP forecast. Enjoy it man. 

I finished with 5.8, also way beyond what was expected.  It was all snow too.  No rain.  Snow from 3:00 AM until around 6:00 PM.  Amazing day of light snowfall.  Yesterday morn the forecast was for under an inch of snow.  I finished the event under a WSW for 3-6 inches, and I just about pegged that top number.  Fantastic storm.  The fast-changing conditions and major over-performance reminds me of the Christmas Day storm.  That's when I joined this board.  On Christmas Eve, the models kept upping the totals one run after another until we ended Christmas Day with 8 inches of snow.  I love surprises...of this type.

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Can't say this band is that exciting where I am, also southern Durham. There are flakes and they are falling, but it's not a lot.

At this point this is all bonus snow for me -- anything more than token flurries is a win

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6 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Thanks bud! Glad you cashed in too. Makes me wonder where @POWERSTROKE is working today 

Big day in Winston. Going to bed for another round tomorrow.   Looks like 7.5-8 in most areas for us.  Now bring the warm to melt it away until Fab Feb!!!

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I finished with 5.8, also way beyond what was expected.  It was all snow too.  No rain.  Snow from 3:00 AM until around 6:00 PM.  Amazing day of light snowfall.  Yesterday morn the forecast was for under an inch of snow.  I finished the event under a WSW for 3-6 inches, and I just about pegged that top number.  Fantastic storm.  The fast-changing conditions and major over-performance reminds me of the Christmas Day storm.  That's when I joined this board.  On Christmas Eve, the models kept upping the totals one run after another until we ended Christmas Day with 8 inches of snow.  I love surprises...of this type.

Yep, for every one of these there are 3 that don't turn out as well as we had hoped. I will enjoy being on the better side of a storm for once. Ended up right at 6 inches myself.

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6 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I finished with 5.8, also way beyond what was expected.  It was all snow too.  No rain.  Snow from 3:00 AM until around 6:00 PM.  Amazing day of light snowfall.  Yesterday morn the forecast was for under an inch of snow.  I finished the event under a WSW for 3-6 inches, and I just about pegged that top number.  Fantastic storm.  The fast-changing conditions and major over-performance reminds me of the Christmas Day storm.  That's when I joined this board.  On Christmas Eve, the models kept upping the totals one run after another until we ended Christmas Day with 8 inches of snow.  I love surprises...of this type.

I am just south of you by 20 miles and had 5.5 inches. 

15162375327312.jpg

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1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yep, for every one of these there are 30 <==== that don't turn out as well as we had hoped. I will enjoy being on the better side of a storm for once. Ended up right at 6 inches myself.

FYP.

It is HARD to get 6" of snow in the SE.  Mother Nature just pulled a straight flush for us.  Jackpot.  

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37 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

“Trust me, not a big deal”

He certainly wasn’t the only one though!

82146afb451bee052cebbd9f608f9436.jpg


.

Brad really dropped the ball on this one. I hope some mets lick their wounds and learn from this. Everyday is a new day to learn something. 

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Solid snow band back over nW Raleigh again. Can confirm. Definitely accumulating type band. Could squeeze a surprise inch or two out of this in spots tonight .

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11 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Brad really dropped the ball on this one. I hope some mets lick their wounds and learn from this. Everyday is a new day to learn something. 

I wouldn’t call saying not a big deal 4 days before an event that people on this board doubted as well at that time frame is dropping the ball. 

He’s trying to prevent the chaos that happens here when people see any forecast of snow but he also has to include it in the forecast or he will look dumb for not forecasting anything when others are. 

This was also a once in a lifetime storm....

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9 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I wouldn’t call saying not a big deal 4 days before an event that people on this board doubted as well at that time frame is dropping the ball. 

He’s trying to prevent the chaos that happens here when people see any forecast of snow but he also has to include it in the forecast or he will look dumb for not forecasting anything when others are. 

This was also a once in a lifetime storm....

How about using a statement like " I'm not seeing this event coming together at present but I will certainly keep an eye on it and advise if things change"  vs. "Trust me....this is no big deal".  

He really needs to brush up on his communication strategy.  We all recognize tv mets dont have the luxury of brash, bold statements that we see on this site.  He just went a bit aggressive with his statement.

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

How about using a statement like " I'm not seeing this event coming together at present but I will certainly keep an eye on it and advise if things change"  vs. "Trust me....this is no big deal".  

He really needs to brush up on his communication strategy.  We all recognize tv mets dont have the luxury of brash, bold statements that we see on this site.  He just went a bit aggressive with his statement.

So true and I agree 100%. The EURO was showing some decent snow around the time he posted that status.. 

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