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Jan 16/17 Event Obs/Disc


mappy

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Just glanced over the models and I am not so sure we should be giving up on some coastal low impact just yet, especially on the DE/MD/VA shores. We have seen some pretty significant positive changes at 500 mb the last few runs for such short lead time. We are now seeing a strong closed upper level low forming to our west sustaining its integrity until off the coast. We are also seeing the trough it is embedded in moving towards a more neutral look as it runs through the region. Now at this point the trough is still too progressive/positive tilted and the surface low (off the SE coast) is forming to far out that we don't see a capture until well OTS. But if the models can continue with their trends maybe good things can happen. We need to see the trough reach at least a neutral tilt (would prefer a negative tilt though) as it runs through our region. We need to see a continuation of the projected strong upper low, if not stronger. And we need to see the surface low form closer to the coast then now currently projected. In regards to the surface low at this point, we are seeing the largest current pressure drops centered just off the South Carolina coast. But let's see where we stand 6 hours from now in that regards because those charts can be somewhat misleading.

Now we are talking lead times of roughly 24 hours so odds strongly favor nothing coming of this. But let's see what shakes out over the next 12 hours or so. Who knows, maybe we can luck into something a little extra.

Good post. Its possible there is some enhancement from the coastal. Solid band formed over here and its not moving very fast. It looks pretty impressive here right now.

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Just now, smokeybandit said:

Gotta admit, for as little snow fell, the secondary roads in AA county were not in good shape.  Which is strange for as heavily brined as they've been.

Highways were fine though.

Yeah, with snow still falling and temperatures falling fast, it's a pretty bad combination. The traffic map looks pretty ugly for a lighter than normal rush hour.

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10 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That blob to the SW has me interested. If that sucker makes it into the metro we might get a little more fun.

Killing me that I'm just to the WNW of that blob

For the briefest of moments I thought rates were about to pick up. But at least all the grass is covered. No traffic problems whatsoever but  schools closed in Cville and some surrounding counties. Delays elsewhere.

Over what looks to be maybe an inch?

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Models in the short term handled this well. .3-.5 in NOVA and 1-1.5 in Central/Northern MD. I dont see this as a reverse bust. Its right on target. Now if we get clipped by the energy that was supposed to be in RIC area, another story. But I don't see that happening for most. Nice to see wind blown snow. No complaints. 

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An inch here now.

9 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

WTF.  AA County just canceled school. For a friggin inch of snow.

This may not be the popular opinion, but I disagree. Snow is still falling, surface temperatures are well below freezing from the past few days, and with the front moving through now, air temperatures are falling relatively quickly. Why risk it?

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

An inch here now.

This may not be the popular opinion, but I disagree. Snow is still falling, surface temperatures are well below freezing from the past few days, and with the front moving through now, air temperatures are falling relatively quickly. Why risk it?

I guess growing up in an area where people were taught how to drive in the snow has me jaded for how things operate here.  Then again maybe it's all about a school's liability insurance.

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Just now, smokeybandit said:

I guess growing up in an area where people were taught how to drive in the snow has me jaded for how things operate here.  Then again maybe it's all about a school's liability insurance.

There's also a slight chance that someone is actually thinking of the children.

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