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North Balti Zen
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37 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yes, but it's a start. Pretty sure we haven't had a single event this whole winter that has dropped even half of that precip. 

I am going to be gentle. You comment guarantees my premise.

"We haven't had a single event this winter that has dropped even half of that precip."   Do you understand that is the problem??

You can hash or dice potentials any which way, but the fact is that significant systems are unlikely to affect our region until this pattern breaks. How many times have we looked 8- 12 days into the future this winter at a potential that really looked good, only to have it fall apart as we got closer.

Please, understand I am not criticizing you. I am only asking you to wake up! if your existence is only guaranteed by cheerleading, that is fine.

The pattern can break next week, or next month. We need to watch for signs. But, we need to also understand that the dry pattern is a major force in our snow drought of late.

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The Rockingham County Board of Supervisors were addressed by their senior extension agent yesterday. They were told to expect a dangerous drought situation this spring unless they receive at least 8 inches of rain by the end of March or 12 inches by the end of April. His terminology to describe the current situation: It is becoming critical. 

Private wells are beginning to fail. People are asked to not wash vehicles from private wells and conserve water anyway possible.

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51 minutes ago, stormy said:

The Rockingham County Board of Supervisors were addressed by their senior extension agent yesterday. They were told to expect a dangerous drought situation this spring unless they receive at least 8 inches of rain by the end of March or 12 inches by the end of April. His terminology to describe the current situation: It is becoming critical. 

Private wells are beginning to fail. People are asked to not wash vehicles from private wells and conserve water anyway possible.

I'm experiencing it pretty harshly too. Here's the view of my front lawn:

170221_vod_orig_cadrought_16x9_992.jpg.52bb26fa5540f196b19e2058d6263f02.jpg

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

In all seriousness, this is an issue. Good news is, typically extremely dry periods are followed by extremely wet periods. I hold out hope that we get our share of rain this summer, but as you pointed out, too little too late if it were the case. 

You are correct, a dry pattern is often followed by a wet pattern. I must believe that the probability of a dry spring and summer is reduced because of how long most of us have been dry. Many folks who are in a moderate drought as I speak don't have a clue because people don't notice a drought during the winter as they would during the green season.

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4 hours ago, Cobalt said:

I'm experiencing it pretty harshly too. Here's the view of my front lawn:

170221_vod_orig_cadrought_16x9_992.jpg.52bb26fa5540f196b19e2058d6263f02.jpg

Cobalt! You nearly caused a stroke with that shot!! Actually, that is a shot of your back yard after you have watered heavily in May and June and your local governance has implemented mandatory water use restrictions in July.......... It dries up and cracks open.  No fear of prosecution!  It will rain in June and July. That is my fearless forecast!

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23 hours ago, stormy said:

I am going to be gentle. You comment guarantees my premise.

"We haven't had a single event this winter that has dropped even half of that precip."   Do you understand that is the problem??

You can hash or dice potentials any which way, but the fact is that significant systems are unlikely to affect our region until this pattern breaks. How many times have we looked 8- 12 days into the future this winter at a potential that really looked good, only to have it fall apart as we got closer.

Please, understand I am not criticizing you. I am only asking you to wake up! if your existence is only guaranteed by cheerleading, that is fine.

The pattern can break next week, or next month. We need to watch for signs. But, we need to also understand that the dry pattern is a major force in our snow drought of late.

The problem with persistence based forecasting is you don't know when the pattern will break. And there can be wet periods embedded within longer term dry patterns. Some of us had over 1" qpf last week. Either way yes dry feeds back and can cause more dry but it can and will break and so all this dire saber rattling that it can't rain or snow because it's dry is overdone. Yes it's dry. No one is refuting that. But it's part of long term cyclical patterns. Dry wet it goes back and forth and will balance in the long run. This isn't anything out of the realm of normal long term variance. We have had droughts like this before and we will again. And it will end at some point. 

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22 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem with persistence based forecasting is you don't know when the pattern will break. And there can be wet periods embedded within longer term dry patterns. Some of us had over 1" qpf last week. Either way yes dry feeds back and can cause more dry but it can and will break and so all this dire saber rattling that it can't rain or snow because it's dry is overdone. Yes it's dry. No one is refuting that. But it's part of long term cyclical patterns. Dry wet it goes back and forth and will balance in the long run. This isn't anything out of the realm of normal long term variance. We have had droughts like this before and we will again. And it will end at some point. 

You are exactly right and I am exactly right. "It will end at some point".   My conclusion is that it will end soon after being dry for 5 months. My definition of soon? 1 week - 3 months.

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On 1/16/2018 at 9:01 AM, EastCoast NPZ said:

There is certainly a feedback loop that sets up which can exacerbate and extend droughts.  Around here, that region would probably need to be to our WSW for it to amplify our problems.  Haven't looked towards the mid-west to see how they are doing with ground moisture.  Dry conditions now - while they suck - won't be a big problem until we get to the growing season.  If we haven't entered a wetter pattern by then, there will be big problems by late spring.

One effect of a drought that is irrefutable is that it equals warmer temps.  We could be headed into an epic summer heat nightmare.

It's not good toward the Midwest.  In fact, a pretty significant amount of the country is abnormally dry or in drought conditions.  

20180123_usdm.thumb.png.0ecc7f23606f9d46ae6a0dcf1094dc38.png

 

90 day precip % of average

90dPNormUS.png.78ce33bc848fcee066590c6735110827.png

 

The feedback loop can be much more of an issue in warmer months as evaporation rates increase, so you are right that this would be a much bigger concern if these dry conditions are still around in Spring.

 

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's not good toward the Midwest.  In fact, a pretty significant amount of the country is abnormally dry or in drought conditions.  

20180123_usdm.thumb.png.0ecc7f23606f9d46ae6a0dcf1094dc38.png

 

90 day precip % of average

90dPNormUS.png.78ce33bc848fcee066590c6735110827.png

 

The feedback loop can be much more of an issue in warmer months as evaporation rates increase, so you are right that this would be a much bigger concern if these dry conditions are still around in Spring.

 

Definitely not good to see Texas and the SE that dry.  I sure hope that changes before Spring; else major heat could begin building.

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I am starting to notice the drought. North Carolina is getting much needed rain, while weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system after weather system gives us only drizzle and very light rain, time after time after time after time.

The rain we DO get is not measurable, unless you use a scanning electron microscope. I may have to start the dry summer complaints topic in early April lmao.

This is going to be one of the hottest and one of the driest springs in the Mid Atlantic, since records began to be kept.

I can't even begin to imagine how incredibly HOT and parched hellish dry the summer of 2018 is going to be.

I would much rather we have a super El Nino with 100% all rain, than have this dry horrific winter, then a dry horrific (and record HOT) spring, followed by the Summer Straight From Hell.

Climate Change is HELL, and the worst effects will be seen in the Mid Atlantic, NOT the Arctic.

La Nina will last into late 2023.

We will still get lots of snow this winter but it will be dry fluffy snow, and melted down, this snow will not help the serious drought here in the Mid Atlantic. We are going to be exactly like California by 2021.

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20 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

GFS very dry through the run... surprising. This should not be such a dry time normally. 

Grabbed this off wikipedia for 1981-2010 averages at DCA.  Looks like February is in fact the driest month of the year, on average.  You sure about your statement?

Month                                                  Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct     Nov      Dec Year
Average precipitation inches (mm) 2.81
(71.4)
2.62
(66.5)
3.48
(88.4)
3.06
(77.7)
3.99
(101.3)
3.78
(96)
3.73
(94.7)
2.93
(74.4)
3.72
(94.5)
3.40
(86.4)
3.17
(80.5)
3.05
(77.5)
39.74
(1,009.4)
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6 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Grabbed this off wikipedia for 1981-2010 averages at DCA.  Looks like February is in fact the driest month of the year, on average.  You sure about your statement?

Month                                                  Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct     Nov      Dec Year
Average precipitation inches (mm) 2.81
(71.4)
2.62
(66.5)
3.48
(88.4)
3.06
(77.7)
3.99
(101.3)
3.78
(96)
3.73
(94.7)
2.93
(74.4)
3.72
(94.5)
3.40
(86.4)
3.17
(80.5)
3.05
(77.5)
39.74
(1,009.4)

February is normally relatively dry at DCA, although January is normally drier on a per day basis (average of 28.25 days in February vs 31 days in January).  However, the last five months have been abnormally dry at DCA, with total precipitation totalling under 7 inches since September 1, 2017.   Assuming that we receive no more than an inch or so between now and Wednesday, precipitation during September 2017 through January 2018 will be the third lowest total in DC for any September-January period (147 year record), behind only September 1930-January 1931 (5.43 inches) and September 2001-January 2002 (5.50 inches).

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11 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Grabbed this off wikipedia for 1981-2010 averages at DCA.  Looks like February is in fact the driest month of the year, on average.  You sure about your statement?

Month                                                  Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep    Oct     Nov      Dec Year
Average precipitation inches (mm) 2.81
(71.4)
2.62
(66.5)
3.48
(88.4)
3.06
(77.7)
3.99
(101.3)
3.78
(96)
3.73
(94.7)
2.93
(74.4)
3.72
(94.5)
3.40
(86.4)
3.17
(80.5)
3.05
(77.5)
39.74
(1,009.4)

Yeah man. check out this drought

2.png

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46 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Yeah man. check out this drought

2.png

I was not debating the lack of recent precipitation, or the current drought status. I was debating your statement "this should not be such a dry time normally," which was about the next 384 hours on the GFS.  

When I go out to 384 on the GFS (18z) it shows most of the region in the 2+ inch range... which over the next 16 days, would be slightly above average based on the average amounts I posted above.

 

gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

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11 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I've watched the GFS produce those maps all Winter, it's pretty simple that in the pattern it won't happen. 

Since September 1, I have received 7.85 of the 17.85 inches predicted by the GFS 384 hr. precip. charts.

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Quote

000
AXUS71 KLWX 011608 CCA
DGTLWX
DCC001-MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-510-VAC003-
013-015-047-059-061-079-099-107-113-125-137-139-153-157-165-177-
179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-790-820-082300-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW IN DC AND BALTIMORE...

SYNOPSIS...
As of January 30th 2018, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that 
drought conditions continue to gradually worsen as overall dry
weather persists.

The D2 (Severe Drought) conditions that were first designated on
January 23rd have now increased in area, and include the following
areas:

All of the District of Columbia.

In Virginia: portions of Stafford, Culpeper, Fauquier, Loudoun, 
and Prince William Counties, as well as all of Fairfax and
Arlington Counties, and the cities of Falls Church, Fairfax, 
Manassas, Manassas Park, and Alexandria. 

In Maryland: portions of Montgomery, Prince Georges, Howard, Anne
Arundel, Baltimore, and Harford Counties, and all of Baltimore
City.

For most of these areas, this is the first week of this
designation. For Stafford County, this is the second week of this
designation.

D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions are still designated for almost 
all of the remainder of northern and central Virginia, with the 
exception of Highland, Page, Shenandoah, Frederick, and Clarke 
Counties. This includes the City of Fredericksburg and portions 
of Spotsylvania and King George Counties which were in the D2 area
last week but saw appreciable rainfall. D1 (Moderate Drought) 
conditions are also still designated on either side of the D2 area
in Maryland. 

A very small area west of the D1 region is designated as D0 
(Abnormally Dry), including the rest of Northern Virginia, the 
extreme eastern West Virginia Panhandle, and the Catoctin Mountain
Region of Maryland.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
State and Local Declarations:
A Drought Watch has been declared by the Virginia Department of
Environmental Quality (DEQ) for all of northern Virginia, except
for King George County, Highland County, and communities whose 
water supplies come from the Potomac River or Occoquan Reservoir.

A Drought Watch has also been declared by the Maryland Department
of the Environment (MDE) for its Western and Central regions,
which include Allegany, Washington, Frederick, Carroll, and
Harford Counties, as well as portions of Montgomery, Howard, and
Baltimore Counties that are not serviced by WSSC or Baltimore
City water systems.

No other state or local declarations are known as of the time of 
this statement.

Agricultural Impacts:
While this is not particularly the time of year for significant
agricultural impacts, some issues have been noted with winter
wheat due to the lack of rain and late planting. County extension
agents are also reporting very dry conditions with concerns that
wells could go dry.

Hydrologic Impacts:
Soil moisture remains below normal roughly south of Interstate 70.
The worst conditions remain in the I-95 corridor between BWI and
Fredericksburg, centered on Washington DC. Modeled estimates of
soil moisture depict an area near the Potomac River south of DC
that is below the 2nd percentile for soil moisture. 

The recent rains finally stopped the slide in groundwater levels
in most areas. They're still below normal virtually areawide, but
at least they appear to have bottomed out for the season. 
Typically this happens in September or October; this year it did 
not happen until January.

As of late December, the towns of Front Royal and Strasburg had
implemented voluntary water restrictions due to low streamflows
in the South Fork Shenandoah River and North Fork Shenandoah 
River, respectively. At the time of this statement, these 
voluntary restrictions were still believed to be in place.

Some municipalities implement voluntary or mandatory water
restrictions when streamflow levels drop. Please check to see if
your community is included in these water restrictions.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
Precipitation in the last week (since January 25th) has generally
been a half inch or less, mostly in the form of light rain. The
Virginia Piedmont and Southern Maryland got some steadier and
heavier rain during that time, totaling 1-2 inches. 

30 day departures from normal are worst in the D2-designated area;
only 25-60 percent of normal. The area in southern Maryland that 
got heavier rain this week, and a similar area in northern 
Maryland near Hagerstown that got heavier rain two weeks ago, are
now above normal at 30 days.

60 day departures are near normal in the heavier rain areas, and
below normal (25-50 percent) in the D2-designated area.

Generally speaking, we need to make up 3-6 inches of rainfall 
deficits to break out of the dry conditions.

Some statistics for the major cities in the D2-designated area:
(Statistics are preliminary and subject to correction.)

WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL (DCA)
--------------------------------
Timeframe          Total         Departure          Ranking
---------------------------------------------------------------- 

January 2018    0.94 inch     -1.87 inches       4th driest
Dec 01 - Jan 31    1.44 inches   -4.42 inches       2nd driest
Nov 01 - Jan 31    3.44 inches   -5.59 inches       2nd driest
Aug 01 - Jan 31   11.47 inches   -7.61 inches       6th driest
2/2017 - 1/2018   33.79 inches   -5.95 inches      22nd driest 
2/2016 - 1/2018   65.56 inches  -13.92 inches          N/A

BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL (BWI)
----------------------------------------
Timeframe          Total         Departure          Ranking
---------------------------------------------------------------- 

January 2018    0.96 inch     -2.09 inches       5th driest 
Dec 01 - Jan 31    1.91 inches   -4.51 inches       2nd driest
Nov 01 - Jan 31    4.06 inches   -5.66 inches       4th driest
Aug 01 - Jan 31   13.60 inches   -6.77 inches      10th driest
2/2017 - 1/2018   36.55 inches   -5.33 inches      28th driest 
2/2016 - 1/2018   76.26 inches   -7.50 inches          N/A

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... 
A more active pattern is setting up across the region, which is
good news for slowing down the precipitation deficits.

Precipitation is expected tonight (February 1st), but current
forecast amounts look to be just a tenth to a third of an inch,
highest in southern Maryland -- one of the areas that has been 
wet recently. Another round of precipitation is expected for 
Sunday (February 4th), with liquid equivalent totals currently 
forecast to be around a half inch. Yet another chance of rain or
snow is expected on Tuesday night into Wednesday (February 6-7),
with similar totals possible. 

Normal liquid equivalent precipitation for a week during this 
time of year is between a half inch and one inch, so these three 
events combined could be enough to lead to a near or even above 
normal week, if everything turns out as forecast.

Looking further out in time: unfortunately, the Climate 
Prediction Center outlook for week two (February 8-14) favors
below normal precipitation with below normal temperatures.

The Drought Outlook indicates some slight improvement in
conditions is possible during February, but the drought is
expected to persist overall through the end of April.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
Streamflows remain below normal to well below normal in the 
Moderate Drought (D1) and Severe Drought (D2) areas, but have 
recovered to near normal or even a bit above normal elsewhere.

River ice is no longer a hydrologically-significant factor,
though there are still some areas of mainly shore/sheet ice.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... 
With Severe Drought (D2) conditions indicated for portions of the
area, this statement will be issued weekly, until conditions 
improve. The next scheduled issuance of the Drought Statement will
be Thursday, February 8th, 2018.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses...

US Drought Monitor...http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu
NWS Drought Page...http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/drought
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
National Weather Service...http://water.weather.gov
US Geological Survey...http://water.usgs.gov

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA's
National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, state and regional center climatologists, and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, State
Cooperative Extension Services, the USDA, USACE, and USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
43858 Weather Service Road
Sterling, VA 20166
Phone: 703-996-2200
[email protected]

 

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