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January 20-22nd Winter Storm


cyclone77

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Excruciating cutoff along the northwest edge of heavy snow.  Places in areas of northwest Iowa up towards MSP bounce between basically nothing and 15" of snow depending on which model you look at.  Latest NAM completely shuts out the MSP area, while the Euro gives them a good footer.  You could make strong arguments for either scenario, as you could have robust convection tug the surface low a little southeastward, but the dry slot could end up shoving everything further northwest as well.  

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Excruciating cutoff along the northwest edge of heavy snow.  Places in areas of northwest Iowa up towards MSP bounce between basically nothing and 15" of snow depending on which model you look at.  Latest NAM completely shuts out the MSP area, while the Euro gives them a good footer.  You could make strong arguments for either scenario, as you could have robust convection tug the surface low a little southeastward, but the dry slot could end up shoving everything further northwest as well.  

The NAM pushes the system on a easterly detour for awhile before turning it north in the direction it was always headed that kind of thing if pronounced would bury people with snow who least expected it

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13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Interested in the localized severe potential in IL today. Robust dry slot moving in. Models firing a broken line of convection around 20z. Looks like a good setup for HSLC tornadoes but obviously that's contingent on enough instability developing

 

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Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 

18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. 

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 

18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. 

Looks like most guidance is on-board with a general 1-3" across far NE. Illinois/SE. Wisconsin tonight/tomorrow morning.

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 

18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. 

MKE does have a WWA out for the potential, though it could overperform.

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50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like most guidance is on-board with a general 1-3" across far NE. Illinois/SE. Wisconsin tonight/tomorrow morning.

Think a good chunk of the QPF may fall as liquid in NE IL as the warm front has lifted north of the area. Temps in SE WI don't have as far to fall for snow. Rates look to be heavier up there too. Congrats to the MSP metro on getting a nice dump! Trends were looking a little worrying for awhile, glad it worked out in the end.

image.png.8e4f2b7c78c054cfe84edeb63e122ff1.png

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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Looks like MSP got hit pretty good, with blizzard conditions and up to 15” in far S MN. 

18z GFS shows that micro deformation band in far SE WI overnight tonight, with like 6” in 6 hours. Strange for a global model to pick up on such a mesoscale feature like that...I wonder if MKE may be in store for a surprise. 

Definitely a few hours of blizzard or near blizzard conditions here. Airport measured 9.3" as of 6pm and it's been snowing moderately since so they are over 10" at this point. A few locations in the south metro are reporting 12-14" so far. Has been a very fun storm to track and an awesome day of watching the weather outside. Absolutely perfect.

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Inch of rain round one. Lull most of the day.  Thunder/lightning/pea hail round 2.  Eyeballing  a  2-3" of paste job so far to close.   The best worst climo winter event in some yrs.  Back to winter MIA mode until Feb :(     If we can have another Jan. 20, 2018 50+ degree sunny day on Friday I'm OK with that.   We take what we can get this winter.

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Quite the winter storm; heavy showers and storms on the warm front followed by a dry slot where the sun came out and spring arrived. Then a thunderstorm with small hail as the cold front passed. Woke up this morning to snow falling with perhaps an inch out there. Not bad.

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Yeah - not making 5"  Never trust the radar and the other half's eyeball measurement while laying in bed and posting lol.  Doesn't look like we added a whole lot more since my eyeball total at 4am.   West was the best.   Some impressive totals in areas of racine and kenoaha.

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Some totals in SE WI and NE IL from this event. We ended up with about 2”. Watching the evolution on radar is pretty sweet. Per Tom Skilling:

Paddock Lake, WI  9.0"
Burlington, WI   8.5"
Waterford, WI .   8.0"
Pell Lake, WI   7.7"
Sturtevant, WI   6.0"
Elkhorn, WI    5.6" 
Twin Lakes, WI.  5.5"
Whitewater, WI    5.0"
Lake Villa, IL    4.5"
Spring Grove, IL   4.0"
Kenosha, WI   4.0"
Grayslake, IL.  3.0"
Antioch, IL    3.0"
Lakemoor, IL.  3.0"
Harvard, IL   3.0"
Woodstock, IL    2.0"
Beach Park, IL .   2.0"
Waukegan, IL    1.8"
Marengo, IL .  2.0"
Algonquin, IL   1.5"
Northbrook, IL .  1.0"
Skokie, IL    1.0"
Naperville, IL    1.0"
Evanston, IL .  0.5"
Midway Airport-Chicago . 0.4"
O'Hare   0.4"

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well, the mets got it right around here, but the school board in St Paul (my current residence) screwed up big time. some kids didn't get home until 11pm from elementary school. totally sad.

https://blogs.mprnews.org/newscut/2018/01/meteorologists-blamed-for-st-paul-school-bus-snafu/

I can verify that not only the NWS got the right message out, but all the local TV stations did too. either they were directly saying 6-10 or 8-12, but the heaviest snowfall would be in the afternoon and the evening rush, and it would be heaviest in the east and southeast metro; or they were like 6-8, but the big band was close enough that any jog to the north that 12" was realistic for the east metro, also saying the worst would be the afternoon and the evening rush hour. I hate to say it, but with precinct caucuses in ~2 weeks for the DFL and GOP in Minnesota, and the school board members usually all there with the people actually seeking nominations (both US senate seats, governor's seat, US and state reps, and other state row offices) I wonder how many people will show up to complain to the school board members. I know as a DFL member (and convener/precinct chair for the precinct), I will definitely have to ask them politely but firmly who they were listening to about that forecast. after all, this is a storm whose call was right, not one to blame my fellow meteorological colleagues on.

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