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January 20-22nd Winter Storm


cyclone77

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Well, still a bit far out in the mid-range, but the Euro and GFS have been very consistent in developing a fairly potent storm system for the past several days.  This one has the potential to tap into some deep sub-tropical moisture and unload quite a bit of snow wherever that lines up.  For those who miss out on the wintry precip a respectable rain event could serve as sort of a consolation prize given the 2-3 month stretch of relatively dry weather.  

I haven't started a winter storm thread in like 3 or 4 years, so if this one doesn't work out I'll bow out and hide in the shadows for another few years.

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Trend this winter is for the models to be too slow/amplified with the northern stream in the D5-7 range. Right now models are indicating a partial phase of streams which causes this storm to deepen well to the NW. If the northern wave outruns the southern one we could see a further south solution play-out. A number of the 6z GEFS point to this solution (although a number also support the OP run).

Not saying this will happen this time. Just a trend I've noticed in 17-18. I wouldn't write anything off yet.

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5 hours ago, GreenBo said:

Looks good for a heavy rain event here. Should wash the salt off the roads and give us a clean slate for February. Thaws.....they happen. 

We just did that 4 days ago............we don't really need to push the re-set button again so soon, but Nina's are known for it, aren't they. IF it follows this season's MO and trends south, it'll end up another weak sauce WWA event. Looks to be a lose-lose situation. This split flow with "I think I can, I think I can" phasing is pathetic

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3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Well FWIW the GFS continues the early south trend 

Yeah a tick further south than the 06z.  Smashes Iowa into southern WI with heavy wet snows.  Nice baroclinic zone with mid 50s in central IL and mid 20s up in northwest IL at 156hr.  Nice 50kt CC over Iowa as well.  

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34 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We just did that 4 days ago............we don't really need to push the re-set button again so soon, but Nina's are known for it, aren't they. IF it follows this season's MO and trends south, it'll end up another weak sauce WWA event. Looks to be a lose-lose situation. This split flow with "I think I can, I think I can" phasing is pathetic

No doubt

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4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Trend this winter is for the models to be too slow/amplified with the northern stream in the D5-7 range. Right now models are indicating a partial phase of streams which causes this storm to deepen well to the NW. If the northern wave outruns the southern one we could see a further south solution play-out. A number of the 6z GEFS point to this solution (although a number also support the OP run).

Not saying this will happen this time. Just a trend I've noticed in 17-18. I wouldn't write anything off yet.

Yup, really hoping that the same trend that burned us last week’s storm will end up helping us over this way. Unfortunately, the trend is also to dry out the storm with that southern trend, but I’d be happy with anything at this point.

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Tidbit from LOT afternoon afd:

Again, much could and likely will change over the next several
days, but very early signs suggest the potential for convection
ahead of this low and significant winter weather on its north
side. It is too early to say what this means for the local area,
as all depends on the ultimate track and strength of the low, and
whether it even develops as models presently advertise. For
example, a quick look at the GFS ensemble shows a much weaker and
more transient upper wave, as might be expected, rather than a
slower and deeper closed circulation as depicted in deterministic
solutions. Either way, there appears to be a good chance for
active weather late in the weekend, with the potential for both
liquid and frozen precipitation.

Lenning

Wouldnt surprise me if it ends up being south/weaker just based on how things have gone this season. 

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9 hours ago, GreenBo said:

No doubt

yep this winter sucks so far, never seen so many promising looking systems farther out even less than 5 days out fizzle or weaken into fast moving waves of 2-3 inch snows. Really been a let down. Just one storm that is major to break Indy out of the near 3 year winter storm warning drought will do please

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2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

yep this winter sucks so far, never seen so many promising looking systems farther out even less than 5 days out fizzle or weaken into fast moving waves of 2-3 inch snows. Really been a let down. Just one storm that is major to break Indy out of the near 3 year winter storm warning drought will do please

February big dog for central Indiana, leave the magnet and LOT crowd drooling.  I feel it.  Time to get the averages adjusted proper :thumbsup:

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1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

February big dog for central Indiana, leave the magnet and LOT crowd drooling.  I feel it.  Time to get the averages adjusted proper :thumbsup:

I hope so lol. Really miss seeing a good to big storm winter storm warning level at least pop up each year. What really gets me is all these winter haters or pansies around here thinking these weak 1-3 inch snows are big storms now.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The rain would be more useful late in winter/spring.  Now it just can't soak in efficiently anyway.

Agreed.  Around here we just don't have an efficient drainage system other than soaking in.  Frozen ground usually ends up in temporary lakes until the spring thaw.

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At this point in time, I'd favour and lean towards a rainmaker for many of us. Quite the influx of warm pacific air coming in, along with the building SE ridge, which would likely result in a cutter. Unless the s/w slows down to allow the HP near Hudson Bay to sink down, I'd doubt any substantial south shifts with this storm. 

 

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Looks like a good "soaker"? for many around here. Still plenty of time to come back south, which I think is still in reach for the northwestern portions of the sub, given we are 5-6 days out yet. Tbh I'm with cyclone, a good Rainer would be nice, been a long time since our last 0.5 QPF system.

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