Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 16/17 light snow event.


clskinsfan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 871
  • Created
  • Last Reply
10 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yep... and I know that was your fear last night

Yea people give me grief for my "what could go wrong" but my pointing it out doesn't make it happen. I've just seen enough fails to know what to look for and what the most likely "it's all falling apart" scenario is. When I see guidance moving towards that I don't like it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs was a bad run imo. Moved the good stuff with the wave even further north. Not even close there. And the southern wave while closer isn't gonna do it. The upper low is swinging east. No high to the north. Nothing to get precip here. It's actually hurting us as the squeeze play between the closed low to our south and the frontal wave to the north is killing the frontal band as it's passing us. Not gonna sugar coat the run it wasn't what I wanted to see. 

It was a bad run however qpf. for our area has remained basically unchanged the last 4 gfs runs. Maybe a little drier at 0z just now. .17. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

H5 keeps backing more the next run or two and that northern low is even farther west and it will allow the southern precip to move north more before it goes east. You'll then have the scenario the euro first sniffed out a few days ago with rain on NYC and a few inches in central Virginia up to DC. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a looong shot. What I'm worried about is getting stuck in between the better lift from the frontal wave and the upper low. 

I need an easier hobby...one over which I have more control, like changing the laws of gravity or fixing the earth's axis of rotation so we can have year round winter weather as good as this year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea people give me grief for my "what could go wrong" but my pointing it out doesn't make it happen. I've just seen enough fails to know what to look for and what the most likely "it's all falling apart" scenario is. When I see guidance moving towards that I don't like it. 
Your worse case scenarios always play out. Not once have I seen your best case scenarios happen

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS and Euro are actually not too far apart now.  The main difference is that the Euro has moved the jackpot zone 75 miles farther south.  I wouldn't be surpried to bring it back up to near where the GFS has it at 00z.  Central VA has been showing up as the precip max in a lot of runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys need to look at the positives with the negatives. Lower precip but starting after dark and possibly below freezing. Could end up with better accumulation with less qpf. 

Straight out of the weenie handbook. Can't tell you what page number it's on because that page was one of the group ripped out in disgust last March when the proposition was last suggested. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Straight out of the weenie handbook. Can't tell you what page number it's on because that page was one of the group ripped out in disgust last March when the proposition was last suggested. 

We need to root for rain in NYC and BOS. Not because it helps our chances. It will just make us feel better because we got a trace of snow and they didn't. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We need to root for rain in NYC and BOS. Not because it helps our chances. It will just make us feel better because we got a trace of snow and they didn't. 

You have no idea how happy I was to see the Rgem and Gfs cut back on their snowfall totals because of the rain. I was talking to myself I was so giddy!

Really though, I'm not sure we really need that much of an adjustment for the long shot to become a 2' putt. And if we get to see more model runs showing rain for ny and box, our consolation prize has been received.  Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I need an easier hobby...one over which I have more control, like changing the laws of gravity or fixing the earth's axis of rotation so we can have year round winter weather as good as this year. 

I would prefer a hobby study for napping . This season between holiday and weather has done me in. I can test mattresses for the best napping!! Perfect 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The snow shadow in the northern Shenandoah Valley is back on the 00Z GFS.  Hope East Coast NPZ already turned in for the night:

image.jpeg.9ecfe188d69d43468e9c7115f63afca4.jpeg

That is basically right over his house. And it shows my area in about the same boat, so this WILL be the correct outcome, like the rest of this 'winter'.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...