Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 16/17 light snow event.


clskinsfan

Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I always thought ninos were bad too. I thought they gave us a lot of SE ridge torch stuff. I seem to remember a Nino winter in 1997 or 1998 that was like the worst in history. It was warm and snowless. Its almost like, no pattern is really a good pattern here.

Strong ninos  tend to be too mild, weak to moderate are good, neutrals lean mild, weak to moderate ninas are cold but dry, strong ninas too mild 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 871
  • Created
  • Last Reply
44 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I always thought ninos were bad too. I thought they gave us a lot of SE ridge torch stuff. I seem to remember a Nino winter in 1997 or 1998 that was like the worst in history. It was warm and snowless. Its almost like, no pattern is really a good pattern here.

Not always true...There's a reason why the slogan out of the outlook thread said "Mod Nino + blocking"? It all depends on the strength of it. Weak to moderate is generally our sweet spot...and in my novice opinion, our best odds to reach climo or more. Now, 97 was a strong Niño similar to what we had in 2016 (except it may have been a little stronger? Someone correct if I'm wrong about that). Those we don't do that well in except every so often (2 of the last 4 strong niños featured huge blizzards, while the other two, including 97, didn't, lol. And even in the best of setups, things gotta track right...but I put my lowest expectations in Niña years...because we tens to struggle with those (although not impossible to score). Let's hope we can buck Niña climo at some point this year!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Interstate said:

By the time we get to the 12z runs tomorrow... all the QPF will dry up for the cities... Not to mention high's around 40

Yeah, was gonna mention the temps. At least it is cold before this event, or else we'd have to subtract an inch off of our already non existent snow totals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. 

It gets a little less positively tilted with each run.  It also has the coastal tucked in off of NYC this run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The gfs has had 8 consecutive runs that have slowed down the front. It might not get here until next week. 

Now it's hurting us. Now that it's pretty settled that the first wave will be the one, once that wave gets going and moves north of us it kills the frontal precip. But now that is getting stalled to our northwest and doesn't really get in until it's being robbed of its moisture by the developing wave moving away. We need that over us as it's being enhanced not coming through as a dried out shell after the wave is moving away. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Now it's hurting us. Now that it's pretty settled that the first wave will be the one, once that wave gets going and moves north of us it kills the frontal precip. But now that is getting stalled to our northwest and doesn't really get in until it's being robbed of its moisture by the developing wave moving away. We need that over us as it's being enhanced not coming through as a dried out shell after the wave is moving away. 

Yep... and I know that was your fear last night

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gfs was a bad run imo. Moved the good stuff with the wave even further north. Not even close there. And the southern wave while closer isn't gonna do it. The upper low is swinging east. No high to the north. Nothing to get precip here. It's actually hurting us as the squeeze play between the closed low to our south and the frontal wave to the north is killing the frontal band as it's passing us. Not gonna sugar coat the run it wasn't what I wanted to see. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...