Ji Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: CMC the new NAM. 980mb bomb offshore at 96hrs. so glad Boston is getting another blizzard. They deserve it all. World championships, blizzards, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Why doesn't TT have the CMC out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: CMC caves to the solution that has been ruled out... I was surprised at that disco after the eps came out. Ens mean totally supported the op. And you just toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ah, gotchya. I missed that part. I just saw mitch complaining about no snow. Lol Closed low on euro, eps, jma, cmc, and icon. Getting interesting folks... The heck is the GFS issue? Lol Is it just me, or has it been on it's own an awful lot lately (with it being right the last few times, unfortunately)...But now, we're close to the short range and it's still on an island?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ATreglown said: Why doesn't TT have the CMC out yet? Never mind. It's loading now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 How much snow are we looking at on the GGEM? It's not in TT yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ATreglown said: Why doesn't TT have the CMC out yet? Switch to MSLP & Precip, not the rain/frozen one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Nice trend on all 00z guidance...All now at least back the flow on the east coast and most close off at h5. If I could extrapolate the trend on the cmc I can envision some of those eps solutions. Not there yet, especially for us western people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: How much snow are we looking at on the GGEM? It's not in TT yet 0.3" of precip just east of DC, with 0.5" just east of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 You can see the whole CMC run through 120 here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html No accumulation data though. ETA: Cobalt added the precip totals to the above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so glad Boston is getting another blizzard. They deserve it all. World championships, blizzards, etc Looks like the December 2005 bomb, but it's the Del Marva that gets rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Cmc would be close to warning level near the cities. Ulls almost always have high ratio snow. Great run and close to a storm Ji would only complain a little about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, cae said: You can see the whole CMC run through 120 here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html No accumulation data though. Local jackpot is coastal DE again, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Looks like the December 2005 bomb, but it's the Del Marva that gets rocked. It's their year. Or at least the first half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, cae said: You can see the whole CMC run through 120 here. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html No accumulation data though. It's trying I guess but it didn't look that good for me and we are running out of time. We need to see some significant trends here in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: It's trying I guess but it didn't look that good for me and we are running out of time. We need to see some significant trends here in the next 24 hours. I mean, if you want a significant trend, this is a good start. Hopefully Euro takes this home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Using 10:1 CMC would be about 3-4 for I-95 and immediate north and west burbs, 5-6 for interior eastern shore, and about 6-8 for the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's trying I guess but it didn't look that good for me and we are running out of time. We need to see some significant trends here in the next 24 hours. Here's your signficant trend my friend. One more of these and we won't know what to do with ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I mean, if you want a significant trend, this is a good start. Hopefully Euro takes this home Exactly. Models typically are not going go from T-1" to a 4-8 deal in one run. So far, this is the step we would like to see imo...another step or two and this is a nice region wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS not even close to CMC VS GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's trying I guess but it didn't look that good for me and we are running out of time. We need to see some significant trends here in the next 24 hours. Dude what are you taking about? Cmc closed off h5 and nearly got us in the meat of the coastal. We still get 2-5" of snow as is and a big step towards a euro solution that had plenty of upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS not even close to CMC You're right. Look at these three for 12z Thursday: Euro https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011412&fh=96 CMC https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011500&fh=84 GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011500&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dudex what are you taking about? Cmc closed off h5 and nearly got us in the meat of the coastal. We still get 2-5" of snow as is and a big step towards a euro solution that had plenty of upside. When you click on the link he was basing his post on, it took you to the 18z run. He probably saw that and not 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If the ukie comes in with a closed h5 solution and decent qpf then the upside solutions in the eps run start looking more real than fantasy. Even the overrunning front looked pretty good on the rgem and cmc. If the gfs ends up on a total island tonight then my guess is it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude what are you taking about? Cmc closed off h5 and nearly got us in the meat of the coastal. We still get 2-5" of snow as is and a big step towards a euro solution that had plenty of upside. Speaking from a strictly imby perspective, slowing things down and closing off h5 is my only hope. There are a lot of things that can happen short range when you have an arctic front slowing down and a closed ull rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If the ukie comes in with a closed h5 solution and decent qpf then the upside solutions in the eps run start looking more real than fantasy. Even the overrunning front looked pretty good on the rgem and cmc. If the gfs ends up on a total island tonight then my guess is it's wrong. Let's hope the king gets his crown back this week. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Let's hope the king gets his crown back this week. Haha DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, PCT_ATC said: DT? Euro. And DT I guess. He's been off the mark since the Dec 29th potential overrunning fail, and said the Jan 4th storm would go OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ukie has been stubbornly dry all year except for when it went off the rails the Saturday before the bomb. Don't hold your breath or the next time you family sees you they'll think you've become a Smurf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc would be close to warning level near the cities. Ulls almost always have high ratio snow. Great run and close to a storm Ji would only complain a little about Glad to see it after the rest of the suite so far. Everyone gets in the game. I am not feeling real good out here just based on the seasonal trend. But we we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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