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Kasper

January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event

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refcmp.us_se.thumb.png.3a49b8bb778cc275897fb65375f946ad.png

Notice the 2nd snow band developing in MS and streaking into AL. That is some of the higher pwats being tapped as lift begins to max.  I have seen this look before, I would guess that becomes the more dominant snow band.  As the trough tilts, it will likely move a little slower.  I think precip rates are being underplayed in that one band.  

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7 minutes ago, RichardJacks said:

Here is a look at the higher PWATS trend.

Especially in the last 5 frames.

nam.pwat.us_se.trend.gif

You don't think the convection being shown in the lower plains and deep south being shown on the NAM will choke off the QPF's?Relative speaking it's not strong but still there,just wondering :)

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8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You don't think the convection being shown in the lower plains and deep south being shown on the NAM will choke off the QPF's?Relative speaking it's not strong but still there,just wondering :)

For moisture to be cutoff by convection, you typically need a more linear look to the south.  There just isn't enough there to provide any kind of bock.

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27 minutes ago, RichardJacks said:

For moisture to be cutoff by convection, you typically need a more linear look to the south.  There just isn't enough there to provide any kind of bock.

You are probably right.The NAM in this range might even be wrong with convection.But still with convection it's showing would cut off the QPFS it seems to me some way or another.We've seen this many times in the Tn Valley with winter storms

AccuWeather com® Professional   Forecast Models.png

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0z CMC is solid like the RGEM and then it pops a coastal that gives our friends east a good storm.

1-2 across most of the state (10:1 ratio on tropical tidbits) and some 3” spots over the Plateau and SWVA/KY.

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not a big snow maker,ratios still look good at times

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z JAN15   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC    6 HR    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     QPF    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
MON 00Z 15-JAN                  21.8    12.2    06001                           
MON 06Z 15-JAN  24.2    21.6    23.8    14.0    15003           0.00      84    
MON 12Z 15-JAN  25.5    23.4    23.6    12.6    19006           0.00      62    
MON 18Z 15-JAN  40.0    23.6    40.0    26.7    22010           0.00       1    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  42.4    31.8    31.8    27.1    30005           0.01      63    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  31.6    23.8    23.9    21.8    35008     SN    0.01      76    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  23.6    17.0    17.0    14.6    35007     SN    0.05     100    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN  18.2    14.9    18.2    15.6    33006     SN    0.03      95    
WED 00Z 17-JAN  18.8    12.8    12.8     7.5    34006           0.00      89    
WED 06Z 17-JAN  12.7    10.1    10.1     6.0    34005           0.00      79    
WED 12Z 17-JAN  10.0     9.0     9.0     6.3    33005           0.00      74    

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3 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

0z CMC is solid like the RGEM and then it pops a coastal that gives our friends east a good storm.

1-2 across most of the state (10:1 ratio on tropical tidbits) and some 3” spots over the Plateau and SWVA/KY.

It looks like the Canucks are going to go from the driest model to the wettest. 

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GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            00Z JAN15   * - APPROXIMATED
                 SFC     SFC     2 M     SFC     SFC     SFC    6 HR    TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    PCP     QPF    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (PCT)
MON 00Z 15-JAN                  22.2     8.7    02001                           
MON 06Z 15-JAN  23.1    21.3    22.2     9.7    15001           0.00       8    
MON 12Z 15-JAN  23.6    22.2    22.8    11.6    18001           0.00      38    
MON 18Z 15-JAN  40.6    22.5    40.6    22.0    22008           0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  42.4    31.6    31.6    20.8    20004           0.00       9    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  31.7    28.7    28.8    21.0    22002           0.00       4    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  28.8    26.7    27.0    22.4    22001           0.00      66    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN  32.0    27.6    30.9    26.2    29004     SN    0.02      92    
WED 00Z 17-JAN  30.9    22.7    22.8    19.0    32004     SN    0.06      99    
WED 06Z 17-JAN  22.6    13.0    13.2     8.8    34004           0.00      74  
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The best convective snows should be in our NW parts of the Valley again on the GFS.The NAM appears to be out to lunch,shouldn't surprise anyone in this time frame.I did buy into it..lol

111.png

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5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

The best convective snows should be in our NW parts of the Valley again on the GFS.The NAM appears to be out to lunch,shouldn't surprise anyone in this time frame.I did buy into it..lol

 

The NAM gets over amped but it may have came in line at 00z with less qpf. The GFS is on an island though. It's either going to score when no other model does or it's going to bust badly. 

Right now it's the NAM/RGEM/Euro/GGEM vs the GFS.

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The NAM gets over amped but it may have came in line at 00z with less qpf. The GFS is on an island though. It's either going to score when no other model does or it's going to bust badly. 

Right now it's the NAM/RGEM/Euro/GGEM vs the GFS.

You could be right.Looking at the convection on the euro just now it looks like the Nam.I just hate seeing convection into the southern plains and lower Ms Valley during a storm,its a recipe for disaster for us

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The Euro is virtually the same as 12z. Little larger with the .2+ qpf in the NW and SEKY/Plateau area and a little drier in some areas but that's just run to run variability. 1-3 inch event for many, in line with all the other models except the gfs.

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Jma 0z not loading for me, but dang things are looking up...gfs is on an island, but even then it’s only had 1-2 drier runs, 6z looked like euro etc now.

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32 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is virtually the same as 12z. Little larger with the .2+ qpf in the NW and SEKY/Plateau area and a little drier in some areas but that's just run to run variability. 1-3 inch event for many, in line with all the other models except the gfs.

Couple inches by the euro,ratios still look decent in Mid Tn.Carvers warm spell looks to be pushed back a couple days,but the Euro shows it.I didnt think it would be that bad,but it could be on the Euro

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z JAN15
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 00Z 15-JAN                  23.7     7.0    04002   0.00    0.00      97    
MON 06Z 15-JAN  25.6    23.4    25.0     5.8    16004   0.01    0.01      93    
MON 12Z 15-JAN  26.8    24.7    25.5     6.2    19006   0.00    0.00      10    
MON 18Z 15-JAN  43.1    25.0    43.4    16.1    22009   0.00    0.00      40    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  46.5    33.2    33.8    24.8    31005   0.00    0.00      93    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  33.8    26.1    26.4    21.0    34007   0.00    0.00      97    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  26.4    20.1    20.0    11.5    34007   0.05    0.05     100    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN  20.0    17.2    17.8     4.6    33006   0.06    0.06     100    
WED 00Z 17-JAN  19.7    14.5    14.3    -1.4    33006   0.01    0.01      11    
WED 06Z 17-JAN  14.6    10.9    11.3    -3.4    34005   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 12Z 17-JAN  11.7     9.8    10.0    -1.0    32005   0.00    0.00      32    
WED 18Z 17-JAN  24.4     9.7    24.7     4.3    33005   0.00    0.00      22    
THU 00Z 18-JAN  26.9    20.5    20.3     6.7    30005   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 06Z 18-JAN  20.4    17.0    17.1     6.6    26004   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 12Z 18-JAN  17.4    15.8    16.2     4.2    22004   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 18Z 18-JAN  35.9    16.0    36.2     0.1    23005   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 00Z 19-JAN  40.3    29.3    29.3     3.5    21006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 06Z 19-JAN  29.3    25.6    25.6     2.1    21007   0.00    0.00      60    
FRI 12Z 19-JAN  25.6    23.3    23.5     2.7    20006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 19-JAN  45.3    23.5    45.6    12.2    21008   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 00Z 20-JAN  46.6    39.3    39.2    20.6    19007   0.00    0.00      88    
SAT 06Z 20-JAN  39.2    37.0    37.8    19.9    19008   0.00    0.00      93    
SAT 12Z 20-JAN  39.2    37.6    38.8    23.1    19008   0.00    0.00      94    
SAT 18Z 20-JAN  51.1    38.7    51.3    29.2    19009   0.00    0.00      57    
SUN 00Z 21-JAN  54.9    45.3    45.1    36.5    17008   0.00    0.00      18    
SUN 06Z 21-JAN  45.4    43.0    44.6    39.7    18009   0.00    0.00      24    
SUN 12Z 21-JAN  44.6    41.4    41.4    36.3    16008   0.00    0.00       6    
SUN 18Z 21-JAN  59.3    41.1    59.6    46.9    17010   0.00    0.00      13    
MON 00Z 22-JAN  61.9    56.4    56.4    47.9    16011   0.00    0.00      99    
MON 06Z 22-JAN  58.6    55.3    55.8    55.3    17017   0.16    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 22-JAN  56.3    44.8    44.5    42.8    23008   0.57    0.00       7    
MON 18Z 22-JAN  49.1    42.6    49.2    29.4    25011   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 23-JAN  50.0    42.4    42.1    27.4    23007   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 06Z 23-JAN  42.1    36.1    36.0    27.1    24006   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 23-JAN  36.0    29.1    29.1    24.9    22005   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 23-JAN  50.6    28.4    50.8    29.4    15003   0.00    0.00      76    
WED 00Z 24-JAN  53.0    42.5    42.3    31.5    14005   0.00    0.00      95    
WED 06Z 24-JAN  43.6    40.8    43.2    27.4    18009   0.00    0.00      98    
WED 12Z 24-JAN  43.7    42.0    42.4    30.1    18009   0.00    0.00      99    
WED 18Z 24-JAN  48.3    41.6    47.9    41.2    17010   0.09    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 25-JAN  50.7    47.7    48.7    47.9    20008   0.09    0.00     100    



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