Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Ok guys let’s reel this one in, the East needs a decent event, let’s hope all cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 0180114/09 UTC SREF Runs TYS - Avg 1.3", 7 runs with 2"+, 3 runs near 5" CHA - Avg .6", 3 runs with 2"+, 1 run near 4" TRI - Avg 1.2", 5 runs with 2"+, 3 runs 4-7" Iowa State Multiple Model Meteograms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: 0180114/09 UTC SREF Runs TYS - Avg 1.3", 7 runs with 2"+, 3 runs near 5" CHA - Avg .6", 3 runs with 2"+, 1 run near 4" TRI - Avg 1.2", 5 runs with 2"+, 3 runs 4-7" Iowa State Multiple Model Meteograms Now I would take this and twice on Sunday, hopefully we have a clear picture with today’s model runs! Although I’m not counting on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z nam looks still good little slower then last run I think but still stout on the 12 km maps at hr 57. Still snowing in valley at 63. Covers most state 1-4 inches this run with pockets of higher . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCVol Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Hopeful for at least a couple of inches...nothing from NWS yet...not even a hazardous outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, JCVol said: Hopeful for at least a couple of inches...nothing from NWS yet...not even a hazardous outlook Probally waiting for all the 12z models to agree or come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12Z Nam puts out .1 to .4 of an inch across the forum. Lets hope its not just being it usual bias with generous qpf. If it were true looking at ratios that to me appear to be 10:1 at the start of the snow for most but rapidly increase from there the NAM would easily be 1-4 across the forum with some winners pushing possibly to as high as 6" in a few spots upper cumberland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Some strong returns across middle tennessse 12z nam, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Bango said: Some strong returns across middle tennessse 12z nam, You’ve been namd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 One thing that does give me a little hope the little disturbance currently in MO, AR and KS has seemed to really out perform what was modeled over the last 24 hours, its not related to our front but models had a hard time with that in terms of qpf and snow totals it has out performed maybe they will with this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: One thing that does give me a little hope the little disturbance currently in MO, AR and KS has seemed to really out perform what was modeled over the last 24 hours, its not related to our front but models had a hard time with that in terms of qpf and snow totals it has out performed maybe they will with this as well. I just told my wife the same thing, but she’s clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 0180114/09 UTC SREF Runs TYS - Avg 1.3", 7 runs with 2"+, 3 runs near 5" CHA - Avg .6", 3 runs with 2"+, 1 run near 4" TRI - Avg 1.2", 5 runs with 2"+, 3 runs 4-7" Iowa State Multiple Model MeteogramsNice summarization of the SREF and Meteograms. Thanks for putting that together. The SREF can be a very useful tool for trends and to see what the NAM/GFS might trend toward for future runs. 12z nam looks still good little slower then last run I think but still stout on the 12 km maps at hr 57. Still snowing in valley at 63. Covers most state 1-4 inches this run with pockets of higher .I think slower is better. Slower means that the flow is backing up somewhat to slow the front down. This allows more moisture to build along the front. The NAM was a little sharper with the trough this run. Let’s see if it translates to the global models any. One thing that does give me a little hope the little disturbance currently in MO, AR and KS has seemed to really out perform what was modeled over the last 24 hours, its not related to our front but models had a hard time with that in terms of qpf and snow totals it has out performed maybe they will with this as well.I would like to know if any snow is reaching the ground southwest of Memphis. There are some 20-30dbz returns that the HRRR and other models are not picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I would like to know if any snow is reaching the ground southwest of Memphis. There are some 20-30dbz returns that the HRRR and other models are not picking up on. Yeah I'm really surprised to see 20dbz returns entering Mississippi at the moment. I'm curious as well, only OBS I see of snow is Northern AR, but with 20 dbz returns I wouldn't be surprised of at least flurries making it across the Mississippi river into Northern MS. If so this thing would have really out performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS looks dry still 1-2 inches in valley from loudon county north but not much at all of a flow up from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12z GFS is still very progressive. Totals are similar to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I haven't seen an update to the RGEM on Tidbits since 18Z yesterday which is really kind of annoying because its my preferred model for this time range. GFS to me is an outlier since it is the most progressive of all the major models. Curious to see the 12Z GEM once it gets enough frames loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Looks Like NWS Memphis are keeping an eye on that shortwave Shawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattywarmnose Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I’ll be curious to see if Nam shows this front slowing down, maybe it will start to pull moisture from gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Cmc looks better then the 0z run on its totals almost looks like nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GEM seems to be closer to the NAM just a tad less QPF but still a 1-3 inch event with a few areas above that (considering ratios rising above 10:1 during the event). Seems a middle of the road model between NAM and GFS, but closer to NAM than GFS in connecting to the gulf and a bit slower. Really wish I could see the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: GEM seems to be closer to the NAM just a tad less QPF but still a 1-3 inch event with a few areas above that. Seems a middle of the road model between NAM and GFS, but closer to NAM than GFS in connecting to the gulf and a bit slower. Really wish I could see the RGEM. 48HR RDPS on pivotal shows 1-1.1.5 in west tn on end of its run don't know if that's what your looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Definitely an overachiever in AR...they extended the WWA a couple counties to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 48HR RDPS on pivotal shows 1-1.1.5 in west tn on end of its run don't know if that's what your looking for. I believe they aren't the same. Both are canadian, but think they are different models in their ingestion of data and output. I think of the RGEM as the Canadian NAM in a sense, but seen it perform very well over the years in the 24 to 48 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 At least a step in the right direction after yesterday's models was beginning to wonder if we missed another now to wait for the euro hope it comes in good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Definitely an overachiever in AR...they extended the WWA a couple counties to the east. I don't even think the NWS offices in that region thought they would be issuing WWA for this if we went back 24 hours, let alone having to expand them. Maybe that is a sign of things to come with models possibly under performing. Would be nice anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 Some folks in W Tenn could get a little surprise if that holds together In Northern Arkansas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Kasper said: Some folks in W Tenn could get a little surprise if that holds together In Northern Arkansas! They mentioned yesterday that we would probably see some snow showers today and into this afternoon. Looks like we could get a nice band coming through!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Strangely the 12Z RGEM just ran with no 0 or 6Z before it... Weird, anyway it is also not progressive has a good connection to the gulf but lower QPF, though we are literally at the end of its run, hopefully it runs the next few model cycles. Up to .2 of an inch in the forum as a max, but because it is not quite a progressive we are not seeing the whole of the event yet. Suspect there are still some issues with the RGEM, just looks strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yeah I'm really surprised to see 20dbz returns entering Mississippi at the moment. I'm curious as well, only OBS I see of snow is Northern AR, but with 20 dbz returns I wouldn't be surprised of at least flurries making it across the Mississippi river into Northern MS. If so this thing would have really out performed. I'll let you all know if I start seeing any snow here in hardeman county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 RGEM right at the end of its run, nice connection from gulf all the way to new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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