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January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event


Kasper

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What I'm wondering is, the HRRR is ran from assimilating radar data...so how's it going to affect that model or does it?

That’s a good question. I actually think that is a real dry slot in the southern valley. HRRR at this hour sees it and fills it back in later on just like previous runs.


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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


That’s a good question. I actually think that is a real dry slot in the southern valley. HRRR at this hour sees it and fills it back in later on just like previous runs.


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There is a dry slot in the valley I can attest to it.  Though for me its not completely dry its back down to flurries.  Though Hytop down you can't fully see it.  Though BNA radar has what looks like light bands on the edge of the plateau, but because that is so far away from the BNA radar its likely heavier than it looks.

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Actually that "Light looking" band on the plateau near the edge of the valley must be heavy just too far from active radar.  Oak Ridge TAF site reporing heavy snow at the moment, and that band which looks broken due to lack of radar is now hitting the edge of Anderson Co.

Will not be able to trust returns dbz, or the lack of returns.

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5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


That’s a good question. I actually think that is a real dry slot in the southern valley. HRRR at this hour sees it and fills it back in later on just like previous runs.


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If Nashville is picking up returns on and over plateau, they're not light in reality. MRX site is notoriously bad for southern valley. Don't believe there is much of a dry slot happening.

Screenshot_2018-01-16-14-11-19-1.png

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8 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Actually that "Light looking" band on the plateau near the edge of the valley must be heavy just too far from active radar.  Oak Ridge TAF site reporing heavy snow at the moment, and that band which looks broken due to lack of radar is now hitting the edge of Anderson Co.

Will not be able to trust returns dbz, or the lack of returns.

Not really that heavy right now in Oak Ridge, but the roads look like they are going to start to get covered. 

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18 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

There is a dry slot in the valley I can attest to it.  Though for me its not completely dry its back down to flurries.  Though Hytop down you can't fully see it.  Though BNA radar has what looks like light bands on the edge of the plateau, but because that is so far away from the BNA radar its likely heavier than it looks.

I can as well. Snow in Marshall county (NE AL) stopped completely for over an hour. It just picked back up a few minutes ago. 

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The HRRR has not ingested reality for a couple days now, lol! 

39 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

What I'm wondering is, the HRRR is ran from assimilating radar data...so how's it going to affect that model or does it?

Tellico Plains will go back to snow when the column cools.

11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Switched over to sleet here now

Finally I will not quote the dry slot panic someone else posted, but this is not at all a dry slot. Nashville has dry air at 700 mb as expected behind a cold front.

GOES-16, radar, and soundings all show a quality DGZ on the back of the snow ribbon. Might not last long, but did I say this is not a dry slot?

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Returns are really starting to light up the radar in the western valley. Starting to feel better now.


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Yep and I am in them now back up to borderline moderate snow, and 26 degrees.  Like Jeff says the majority of the snow we get will be from the back band.  Best ratios and DGZ area.  Everything in front is bonus.

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2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

The HRRR has not ingested reality for a couple days now, lol! 

Tellico Plains will go back to snow when the column cools.

Finally I will not quote the dry slot panic, but this is not at all a dry slot. Nashville has dry air at 700 mb as expected behind a cold front.

GOES-16, radar, and soundings all show a quality DGZ on the back of the snow ribbon. Might not last long, but did I say this is not a dry slot?

Yeah I agree...seems the front is right over me battling. Temps have went from 39 to 34 (snow) to 37 (sleet) now back to 34 (snow) in last 30-45 mins.

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