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January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event


Kasper

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Just now, John1122 said:

The HRRR is not handling the initial band of snow very well at all. It keeps drying it out too fast. Per last hour there was supposed to be no snow in northern Middle Tn right now. So now it had to adjust that and shows barely any snow next hour. It keeps missing badly on what's actually happening.

Yeah it's been doing that the entire event

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1 minute ago, JCVol said:

Just my guess because the latest forecast from WXSouth has the area at 1 inch or under...it looks to be losing some of the gulf moisture, it's not moving to the east, and temps have risen above freezing in areas

It's been moving very slow all night and all morning. Slow movement is what you want. Temps are also not an issue. All the snow is behind the arctic front. My temp is falling through the 20s right now and it's in the 10s 30 miles north of me. Nashville is snowing and 14.

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Hi res models are struggling. Obviously they are missing fronto-genesis, small short-waves, and/or other forcing. 

6 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Ok I'm lost why is this a swing and miss for valley can some one elaborate.

You are not lost. Game on! 

5 minutes ago, EastKnox said:

The last couple of scans on the radar seem to dry out a bit.  Hoping that is just temporary and it rebuilds soon.

Mid morning pause was shown. Everything is fine. I'm the biggest skeptic on the board, but we need an It's Happening cartoon about now.

Check short-wave on Satellite water vapor coming out of Mississippi, with more energy back in TX/LA.

 

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3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Hi res models are struggling. Obviously they are missing fronto-genesis, small short-waves, and/or other forcing. 

You are not lost. Game on!

Mid morning pause was shown. Everything is fine. I'm the biggest skeptic on the board, but we need an It's Happening cartoon about now.

So its not a swing and miss for valley 

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I like the 12z 32k nam, and in general, i feel like the nam has handled the storm the best, although no meso models have done well with this event for the reasons john outlined.  Think the jury is out until we see what the radar looks like post pivot, 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

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10 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Hi res models are struggling. Obviously they are missing fronto-genesis, small short-waves, and/or other forcing. 

You are not lost. Game on! 

Mid morning pause was shown. Everything is fine. I'm the biggest skeptic on the board, but we need an It's Happening cartoon about now.

Check short-wave on Satellite water vapor coming out of Mississippi, with more energy back in TX/LA.

 

Hope you are right.  GREAT win by your Jayhawks last night.  You were the first person I thought of when I saw the news, lol.  

By the way, we are all hoping you redeem yourself here at KTRI after the last storm..   hahahahaha  All kidding aside, your thoughts on our board are VERY much appreciated.  Hope Chattanooga over performs!

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7 minutes ago, Bango said:

I like the 12z 32k nam, and in general, i feel like the nam has handled the storm the best, although no meso models have done well with this event for the reasons john outlined.  Think the jury is out until we see what the radar looks like post pivot, 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

All the models have done very poorly with the system, LMK had probably best write up overnight...they went with their best guess.

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

If you're on a computer, put your mouse on the eastern edge of the precip on the Nashville radar and put it in motion. It's moving east at probably 25 miles per hour by the look of it.

Last couple of scans appear that the eastward motion has begun again.

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2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

All the models have done very poorly with the system, LMK had probably best write up overnight...they went with their best guess.

I agree, its not even been a playing catch up scenerio for the short term models, its almost a chunk them all and go by radar/waiting game.

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A question for you more experienced guys/gals, where do we look downstream to check for stronger returns for east tn, (could we follow/expect strong developing returns upward from say...louisianna/bama coast)?  Or is this a scenerio where you look for the general stream of moisture and hone in on your area to look for intensifying ?  

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4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

It’s starting to look a little ragged to me on radar. Back to the SW, moisture seems to be drying up and breaking apart in Alabama.  Hopefully, it will hold together.

I am thinking that was expected, as it pivots it reestablishes shortly after

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