Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event


Kasper

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 699
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, bearman said:

That snow is stuck right on the edge of the Valley.  This is a fine example of why it is so hard to get storms that come from the north west to produce well into the valley.  It happens but it is rare.

Least it's holding together I'd be more worried if it was falling apart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

That can’t be right. No official ASOS sites anywhere in east TN have a DP that low. 

The unit is a couple of years old.  Maybe the humidity sensor has gone south.  Looking at other PWS's in the area, there is one close to mine with a DP of 28 and temp of 36.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long time Lurker guys. I appreciate all you all do. I live in the Tri Cities area. We are at 32 degrees and partly sunny. My humidity is at 81%. I'm hoping this sun is going to juice up the air a bit. System seems to be building to the south west. Buddy of mine is getting snow in La Follette now. Hoping that's showing its progressing east north east. Again thank you all. Fingers crossed for an over performer for all of us!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bearman said:

That snow is stuck right on the edge of the Valley.  This is a fine example of why it is so hard to get storms that come from the north west to produce well into the valley.  It happens but it is rare.

That's more due to the trough is pivoting more N/S oriented slowing the progression rather than the plateau itself....as it pivots more the flow begins to get cutoff and lift starts pulling north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Vols1982 said:

Long time Lurker guys. I appreciate all you all do. I live in the Tri Cities area. We are at 32 degrees and partly sunny. My humidity is at 81%. I'm hoping this sun is going to juice up the air a bit. System seems to be building to the south west. Buddy of mine is getting snow in La Follette now. Hoping that's showing its progressing east north east. Again thank you all. Fingers crossed for an over performer for all of us!

Great to have another poster in NE TN.  Please keep posting!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

That's more due to the trough is pivoting more N/S oriented slowing the progression rather than the plateau itself....as it pivots more the flow begins to get cutoff and lift starts pulling north.

So slowing is good..we don't want it to be progressive, right?  But the trough becoming oriented more N/S isn't good since that means it will start to lose the Gulf moisture?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, EastKnox said:

So slowing is good..we don't want it to be progressive, right?  But the trough becoming oriented more N/S isn't good since that means it will start to lose the Gulf moisture?

Not really, it will lose the forcing in the upper levels that causes the moisture to precipitate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Vols1982 said:

Long time Lurker guys. I appreciate all you all do. I live in the Tri Cities area. We are at 32 degrees and partly sunny. My humidity is at 81%. I'm hoping this sun is going to juice up the air a bit. System seems to be building to the south west. Buddy of mine is getting snow in La Follette now. Hoping that's showing its progressing east north east. Again thank you all. Fingers crossed for an over performer for all of us!

Awesome to have another area poster on board!  Thanks for taking the time to create an account and post.  I live just outside Jonesborough and work in Erwin.  Please post more often.....   Good luck to everyone as this band finally comes east!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Latest hrrr  starting to pick up on moisture in valley totals up from last few runs

snku_acc.us_ov (4).png

Looks like the HRRR is showing what some of the other modeling has, the initial band decaying but a secondary line forming over central AL and coming NE. It's what gives the decreased totals in between the two areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is Robert's (WxSouth) latest thinking:

 

Final Snow Call Map (Tuesday January 16, 2018)

by wxsouth • January 16, 2018

It looks like I’m going to have to adjust down in most areas. As the RGEM, GGEM and ICON I fell for were (or going to be) simply too sharp too far west I think. At this point they looked overdone and now viewing all guidance, the European looks about right overall. Tonight as the upper wave scoops more moisture quickly through Georgia and just east of the mountains in NC and VA, there will be enhancement going on. Meaning better lift than what may occur just west of the southern Apps in western GA and central Alabama where lift sort of falls in a lull. One spot that may be surprised is middle GA or even Atanta area, maybe attaching more up 85 and across 26 northwest of Columbia since the UVVs are going to be increasing rapidly around midnight and after, so the snow map is hard to draw in every region, so I had to be broad. But the 1 to 2″ amounts may get pretty close to the area just mentioned but isn’t outlined. Surprises usually happen and the snow graphic will be right some areas, wrong some areas. By and large a weak system with minimal moisture, but the rates and duration will probably increase  in central NC and central VA, possibly ending as snow to the coast. Also, rain may start the event along and near 85 from western SC Upstate to southern Piedmont NC tonight with lack of strong cold there early on.

SnowMapFinalCall_Jan16_2018.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome new and returning posters!

Feel free to start an obs thread. Jax thank you for the pic. Did that escalate quickly?

Snow totals are doing better than one would expect with actual radar returns. Trend refuses to end.

Kentucky and Barkley lake effect will be under the radar. Check VIS. When the surrounding area clears, look for remaining streamers.

Today could be a very memorable 24 hours ending 03Z. Kansas hoops enjoyed its biggest come-from-behind road win in 20 years at Morgantown WV last night. Meaningful snow in Chattanooga is likely!

No cliff diving below! Did you check the short-wave coming out of Mississippi? Satellite (esp vapor) is a strong ally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

Ok I'm lost why is this a swing and miss for valley can some one elaborate.

Just my guess because the latest forecast from WXSouth has the area at 1 inch or under...it looks to be losing some of the gulf moisture, it's not moving to the east, and temps have risen above freezing in areas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob changed the title to January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event
  • Mr Bob pinned this topic
  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...