TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Just curious, but has anyone been able to find a model that initialized correct? I have looked at a bunch and they all seem to be missing what is happening at the surface.. Looked back and can't find any...it's what's leading the discussion among Mets about non of the models are picking up on the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I have a feeling that west TN is probably going to see 3-6 inches from this system overnight and into the morning. If areas around Paducah are already at 8” then some spots from Nashville to Memphis will see lollipops to 6. The radar looks great and the same direction of southwesterly flow will continue for west TN into the morning commute hours. Don’t look at the HRRR or other HI-RES models out west. They clearly are going to underperform from Nashville west. Just look at the radar and outside your window at this point and enjoy! I expect Winter Storm Warnings to move east all the way to Nashville. For eastern areas I think the 18z RGEM was too amped and the 0z RGEM is probably the more realistic scenario minus the weird snow hole it tries to depict over parts of the valley. The 18z RGEM actually cut off the 500 mb energy right over the TN Valley which no other model has shown so far. 0z RGEM does not cut off the 500 mb low and moves the energy thru slightly faster. This is the reason why the totals were so high on the 18z RGEM. I think a blend of the 0z NAM/0z RGEM is the way to go for the Plateau eastward toward the valley. The Euro was showing it closing off at 500mb over SE KY at one point a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro was showing it closing off at 500mb over SE KY at one point a few days ago. I remember that. There was a run or two of the NAM at the end of the run closing it as well around the same time IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Every local afd that has updated mentioned the front moving slower than modeled by any model, which has allowed much more snow than modeled by any model. This will almost assuredly cause a delay in the arrival of precip for those of us in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Couple interesting things I've read over on why it's overperforming in MO/KY areas...The ratios are higher than what was shown and the front is squeezing out all available moisture it can, it's continuing to snow in areas there with no radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1056 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 .NEAR TERM...(Rest of tonight) Issued at 1056 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 The arctic front is quickly moving southeast across the TN Valley and is about to pass over KDCU after already passing KMSL. The bigger news is the update in snowfall accumulations... Made a real quick update to trend snowfall accumulations up due to the mesoscale trends in snowfall rates with the band of snow to the NW over N MS/W TN. Snowfall to liquid ratios are looking to be around 15:1 to 20:1 in far NW AL and perhaps 15:1 over north central AL/southern middle TN. The upward trend has resulted in a small area over far NW AL having forecast amount of nearly 2 inches. If the trend continues to hold, may need to upgrade a few counties to winter storm warning (criteria is >2 inches). For now though, have just updated the wording in the winter weather advisory to reflect the current thinking. Also, made an adjustment to raise probabilities for snow beginning around 09Z- 12Z and trended adjustments to the falling temperatures. .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I'm honestly at a loss about what to call this event. It's a clipper combined with an arctic front that's performing like a southern slider that may miller b to the coast of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I'm honestly at a loss about what to call this event. It's a clipper combined with an arctic front that's performing like a southern slider that may miller b to the coast of North Carolina. Also known as a forecasting nightmare lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It is an arctic front with steroidal upper dynamics causing southwest winds aloft pulling moisture northward. How is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 It is still pounding just south of Paducah with probably 20:1 snow ratio, gonna be some totals approaching 15-18 inches in that zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Will be interesting to see if this continues, but that area of precip in northeast Texas is moving more east than NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 My nephew in Clarksville, Tenn., having a fun drive home from work. Very healthy returns approaching from their NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 As was mentioned, this is moving more east north east right now than SE to NW. That's allowed training to happen and just crushed parts that get under the bands. Will have to see if it orients more SE to NW later as models have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 MEG upgraded NE AR to a Warning now, upped totals to 3"-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro run picks up on the increasing amounts west, yet it dries out the east, although still a nice 2-4 for many. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Euro run picks up on the increasing amounts west, yet it dries out the east, although still a nice 2-4 for many. We shall see...3"? I shall not complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Louisville wfo talks about expanding wsw east and southward. Secondary Moderate/Heavy Snow Axis Beginning to Form... We`re seeing a transition in heavy snow axes at this time as frontogenetical forcing strengthens with the right entrance region of the 130 knot upper jet. As the jet continues to pivot around to a more SW to NE orientation, south central and eastern KY look to sit under the resulting frontogenesis well into the day on Tuesday. The lift, combined with saturation through the DGZ, should continue to pose a threat for bands of moderate to briefly heavy snow. The biggest question is exactly where to place that band. At this point, it looks like it will extend somewhere around a Bowling Green to Lexington line. Plan on upping snow totals along and southeast of that line, but want to wait a bit longer to see exactly where the band sets up over the next hour or two. With an increase in totals, suspect we may have to upgrade the Winter Storm Warning further east. We`re likely seeing at least 20:1 snow ratios given good dendritic growth and the arctic boundary undercutting at the surface. With expected QPF at least another .1 to .2", a good 2 to 4 inches is probably still possible on top of what has already fallen. Will be making some decisions about what to do across the central, southern, and eastern portions of the CWA over the next 1 to 2 hours, and will be letting some of the northern counties fall out of the Winter Weather Advisory shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshNeoG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The forecast for my area near Knoxville has the snow around town around 7am. The snow band on radar really has not moved much over the last couple of hours. Is that timeframe still accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, FreshNeoG said: The forecast for my area near Knoxville has the snow around town around 7am. The snow band on radar really has not moved much over the last couple of hours. Is that timeframe still accurate? I think it'll probably be more like 9 or 10. But it could change if the flow changes more sw to ne like the Louisville wfo mentions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Mrx graphic shows 9-10 a.m start time for Knox, but damn this things slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshNeoG Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I guess my forecast was not updated. The graphic does show it arriving quite a bit later which would be good for the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bango said: Mrx graphic shows 9-10 a.m start time for Knox, but damn this things slow No kidding. It's been 20 miles from Nashville for 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lol at the 03z SREF spread, as the event gets closer it should get closer...nope not this event. Top CHA, Bottom TYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wow, nice death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just now, Windspeed said: Wow, nice death band. There's the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nam 18z keeps the fun hose in tact to east tn, albeit not comparable in qpf with our mid to western friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 HRRR is looking good for east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 06 NAM cut totals by a large amount. MRX is delaying the start of the WWA but still expects 1-3 inches as of now. The cold is impressive behind the front. The snow is falling on upper 10s. This will probably be an 8-10 inch week for Clarksville/Fort Campbell area and points west. I hate the uncertainty of this thing performing against modeled expectations as far as slow movement etc. It always feels like the longer it takes for things like this to happen, the more that can go wrong at the last minute for areas in the Middle and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 06z 3k NAM and 12k doesn't look as good, but not sure any model has a clue right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: 06 NAM cut totals by a large amount. MRX is delaying the start of the WWA but still expects 1-3 inches as of now. The cold is impressive behind the front. The snow is falling on upper 10s. This will probably be an 8-10 inch week for Clarksville/Fort Campbell area and points west. I hate the uncertainty of this thing performing against modeled expectations as far as slow movement etc. It always feels like the longer it takes for things like this to happen, the more that can go wrong at the last minute for areas in the Middle and East. When SREF has a range from 5"-T, it's hard to take any one model at face value, especially the NAM....a lot of uncertainty at this close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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