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January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event


Kasper

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2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I think its getting safer to say 2-4 for the State of TN, any exceptions are likely to be few spots along southern border where could be less, and Western may over perform.

I'd still say 1-3 with some who bonus and some who starve, as is the nature of these events. I always remove a certain percentage from clown maps. Though that occasionally busts in the other direction. 

A few years ago I got 6 inches from a high performance clipper that models struggled with as the storm moved SE. The RGEM was the only model that even got close and even it played catch up and never quite got what fell here. The HRRR and RAP were hot garbage for it and couldn't even initialize right. 

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Just now, TellicoWx said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but GEM is also known as GDPS, and RGEM is RDPS. Some people call the GEM, the CMC, but that's just the name of the orginaziation.

That's correct. Many names for the two models. The Canadian,  the GEM, the GGEM, the GDPS etc is the 240 hour model.  RGEM, RDPS is the Canadian hi res model.

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3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but GEM is also known as GDPS, and RGEM is RDPS. Some people call the GEM, the CMC, but that's just the name of the orginaziation.

I was never sure of the RGEM and RDPS were the same or not because the output of the 2 between Pivitol Weather and Tidbits look different, almost like RDPS might be a high res version of the RGEM like the difference between 12K and 32K NAM.  I always prefered the RGEM from tidbits.

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OHX upgraded western and northern counties to warning.

Quote

FXUS64 KOHX 160334
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
934 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest radar imagery shows snow has spread throughout our
northwest counties with leading edge of snow approaching
Nashville - a couple hours faster than guidance had previously
suggested. Reports indicate 1 inch of snow has already fallen in
Stewart County in the past 2 hours. Latest model guidance
including the 18Z GFS, 00Z NAM, HRRR and RAP models indicate
higher snow accumulations in much of the cwa, especially the
northwest counties which will see snow for roughly another 12
hours or so. Based on this as well as coordination with
surrounding offices, have upgraded some of our northwest counties
to a Winter Storm Warning with 2 to 4 inches of snow now expected,
with possibly higher amounts. The rest of the forecast area still
falls into the 1 to 3 inch total snowfall range, where a Winter
Weather Advisory will remain in place. Grids and zones have been
updated with the new hazards and to begin snow a little faster in
the northwest, but otherwise remain on track.

 

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From LMK, for the folks along TN/KY border:

The NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR indicate a weakening of 700mb/600mb
frontogenetic forcing over the next 2-3 hours before ramping it up
again after 06z over eastern/southern portions of the CWA.
Theoretically, we should see radar reflectivities come down some
during this timeframe and banding becoming more disorganized, with
intensification of reflectivity after 06z and more organized banding
structure. Right now the winter storm warning area highlights our
best guess for where the potential banding will set up, though it
may have to be expanded if this system continues to over-achieve.
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11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'd still say 1-3 with some who bonus and some who starve, as is the nature of these events. I always remove a certain percentage from clown maps. Though that occasionally busts in the other direction. 

A few years ago I got 6 inches from a high performance clipper that models struggled with as the storm moved SE. The RGEM was the only model that even got close and even it played catch up and never quite got what fell here. The HRRR and RAP were hot garbage for it and couldn't even initialize right. 

The way things are going some will have 1-3 before midnight

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White House got upgraded to a winter storm warning. They say 2-4 inches with locally higher totals. I just got about 4 inches on Friday so no doubt this will be the quickest I have ever had 4 inch snow storms so close in time to eachother if this pans out. It also started snowing lightly about 30 minuets ago. Last years horrible winter is quickly turning into a distant memory.

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1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Nice size flakes, that was one of the things I was worried about was getting super fine snow.  Bigger the flakes the faster it piles.

I've always loved the fine flakes. That means its cold! The blizzard of 1993 had dime sized flakes here and it snowed 11 inches in 3 hours at one point with them!

I do admit that I also enjoy silver dollars. 

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I've always loved the fine flakes. That means its cold! The blizzard of 1993 had dime sized flakes here and it snowed 11 inches in 3 hours at one point with them!

I do admit that I also enjoy silver dollars. 

I like dimes too, just not the straight up dust that it can snow for hours and virtually not accumulate.  

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Did this system start sooner then pronged, not necessarily that the front is moving fast, but the models mis-time it a hair?  The reason I ask is that most meso models I looked at were showing the current precip fields at 3 or 4 a.m,unless I read them wrong (rgem 0z))

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We got bumped up overnight

Tonight
Snow. Low around 16. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow, mainly before noon. High near 18. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
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5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

We got bumped up overnight

Tonight
Snow. Low around 16. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow, mainly before noon. High near 18. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Hope you overperform, Jax. Good luck!

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I have a feeling that west TN is probably going to see 3-6 inches from this system overnight and into the morning. If areas around Paducah are already at 8” then some spots from Nashville to Memphis will see lollipops to 6. The radar looks great and the same direction of southwesterly flow will continue for west TN into the morning commute hours. Don’t look at the HRRR or other HI-RES models out west. They clearly are going to underperform from Nashville west. Just look at the radar and outside your window at this point and enjoy! I expect Winter Storm Warnings to move east all the way to Nashville.

For eastern areas I think the 18z RGEM was too amped and the 0z RGEM is probably the more realistic scenario minus the weird snow hole it tries to depict over parts of the valley. The 18z RGEM actually cut off the 500 mb energy right over the TN Valley which no other model has shown so far. 0z RGEM does not cut off the 500 mb low and moves the energy thru slightly faster. This is the reason why the totals were so high on the 18z RGEM. I think a blend of the 0z NAM/0z RGEM is the way to go for the Plateau eastward toward the valley.

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3 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I have a feeling that west TN is probably going to see 3-6 inches from this system overnight and into the morning. If areas around Paducah are already at 8” then some spots from Nashville to Memphis will see lollipops to 6. The radar looks great and the same direction of southwesterly flow will continue for west TN into the morning commute hours. Don’t look at the HRRR or other HI-RES models out west. They clearly are going to underperform from Nashville west. Just look at the radar and outside your window at this point and enjoy! I expect Winter Storm Warnings to move east all the way to Nashville.

For eastern areas I think the 18z RGEM was too amped and the 0z RGEM is probably the more realistic scenario minus the weird snow hole it tries to depict over parts of the valley. The 18z RGEM actually cut off the 500 mb energy right over the TN Valley which no other model has shown so far. 0z RGEM does not cut off the 500 mb low and moves the energy thru slightly faster. This is the reason why the totals were so high on the 18z RGEM. I think a blend of the 0z NAM/0z RGEM is the way to go for the Plateau eastward toward the valley.

 trained spotter reports of over a foot south of paducah, wow

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