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January 15-16 Arctic Boundary Event


Kasper

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19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Is downsloping getting upper E Tennessee?


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The 18z RGEM was pretty good.  Models usually struggle up here w/ these events.  Always possible this just runs out of gas.  Jeff mentioned some energy transfer taking place with this to the Piedmont/coast.  That could be part of it.  I think we do ok up here.  I have been saying 1-1.5" and I still feel good about that number.

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The 18z RGEM was pretty good.  Models usually struggle up here w/ these events.  Always possible this just runs out of gas.  Jeff mentioned some energy transfer taking place with this to the Piedmont/coast.  That could be part of it.  I think we do ok up here.  I have been saying 1-1.5" and I still feel good about that number.

When does the 0z RGEM run ?


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17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:The 18z RGEM was pretty good.  Models usually struggle up here w/ these events.  Always possible this just runs out of gas.  Jeff mentioned some energy transfer taking place with this to the Piedmont/coast.  That could be part of it.  I think we do ok up here.  I have been saying 1-1.5" and I still feel good about that number.

Trying to remember what other model was showing the transfer beside the arw which doesn’t seem to be in the ball park for correct right now

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4 minutes ago, Ranger said:

Do any of you think once the front hits the southern part of the Plateau that the moisture will substantially subside getting into Chattanooga and north GA?

 

Nam shows it re amplifying when it gets to the valley hrrr leaning that way to it looks waiting on gfs. 

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3 minutes ago, Ranger said:

Do any of you think once the front hits the southern part of the Plateau that the moisture will substantially subside getting into Chattanooga and north GA?

 

With the SW flow that area will hopefully get ample moisture pumped into the area. This isn't a typical clipper where the southern valley gets for sure downsloped.

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1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Nah shows it re amplifying when it gets to the valley hrrr leaning that way to it looks waiting on gfs. 

It appears that the whole column through Louisiana, Arkansas and Texas is filling in, plenty of moisture to work with, I believe!

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The RGEM shifted it's snow hole to NE Knox, but I'd probably ignore that. Rest of the area looks solid with 2-4 inches from Western areas to NE areas. 

I think its getting safer to say 2-4 for the State of TN, any exceptions are likely to be few spots along southern border where could be less, and Western may over perform.

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