PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That's a little more amp'd than I expected out of them, typically being conservative. WBIR cut their totals down as soon as the 18z NAM came out. I know which model they like.Cutting or adding totals after one run is silly. Just ride with the trends, one run isn’t a trend. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 HRRR coming in wetter for West Tennessee . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 This may be one of those systems that surprise and overachieves here in the East. The best moisture return starts being pulled into the valley as moisture from gulf streams into western Carolinas. 18z 3k: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18z GFS gives west tn a good 3-5 east 1-2 inches it's like it hits Nashville and hits the gas and speeds through after sitting in west tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 some of the mets are calling 3-5 inches of snow in south central Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The deeper moisture return is why I believe the crazy uncle keeps spitting out totals across the deep south such as this. WWA coming out now from NWS Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The models seem to be increasing moisture over the west as the system unfolds. As if it is over performing out there and the models pick up on it and then increase totals close to the system but decrease them later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The models seem to be increasing moisture over the west as the system unfolds. As if it is over performing out there and the models pick up on it and then increase totals close to the system but decrease them later in the run. Yeah I feel like this has potential to bust for a lot of folks in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: The deeper moisture return is why I believe the crazy uncle keeps spitting out totals across the deep south such as this. WWA coming out now from NWS Mobile. I will take these totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: The deeper moisture return is why I believe the crazy uncle keeps spitting out totals across the deep south such as this. WWA coming out now from NWS Mobile. Mobile AL NWS .5" to and 1" and saying some may get more than an inch.... Wow didn't see that coming leading up to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 18Z RGEM: It just wants to give everyone in the SE 2-3 inches as a minimum just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I will take these totals. You would think the moisture would be deeper than the NAM/GFS for this kind out output, but in comparing, I don't see much difference in the PWATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Mobile AL NWS .5" to and 1" and saying some may get more than an inch.... Wow didn't see that coming leading up to this storm. There's a deep fetch of moisture that streams forward across AL, GA, toward SE TN, before going on the East side of the Apps. These strong artic fronts tend to squeeze all the moisture out they can. Should be an interesting system to watch unfold. Crazy Uncle doesn't have any support, but I believe there is some potential upside to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, RichardJacks said: You would think the moisture would be deeper than the NAM/GFS for this kind out output, but in comparing, I don't see much difference in the PWATS. Yeah the setup is generally the same across all the modeling as far as PWAT. Only thing I came up with is the CMC/RGEM squeezes everything out. Also, HUN had in their overnight disco that there was some veering at 700mb drying out that layer on the models while the column above and below stayed juiced. I think it's why MOB went ahead and jumped with the WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah the setup is generally the same across all the modeling as far as PWAT. Only thing I came up with is the CMC/RGEM squeezes everything out. Also, HUN had in their overnight disco that there was some veering at 700mb drying out that layer on the models while the column above and below stayed juiced. I think it's why MOB went ahead and jumped with the WWA. Well these arctic fronts are known to squeeze everything out...I too have noticed the 700mb drying and you can see how it dries out the sounding...if winds do not veer, and the squeezing out is underplayed, this could be more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, RichardJacks said: Well these arctic fronts are known to squeeze everything out...I too have noticed the 700mb drying and you can see how it dries out the sounding...if winds do not veer, and the squeezing out is underplayed, this could be more significant. Could you elaborate for us noobs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardJacks Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kasper said: Could you elaborate for us noobs? The arctic air behind the front is very cold and dense, any moisture will be squeezed out as snow. If the models are under forecasting the moisture, or not handling the process correctly, there will be more snow than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Can anyone explain why MRX is calling for 2-3" north of I40 but the point and clicks show nothing of the sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, RichardJacks said: Well these arctic fronts are known to squeeze everything out...I too have noticed the 700mb drying and you can see how it dries out the sounding...if winds do not veer, and the squeezing out is underplayed, this could be more significant. HUN didn't buy it this morning, said it was occurring too fast, haven't had much time this afternoon to go thru all the discos to see if the thinking changed any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, RichardJacks said: The arctic air behind the front is very cold and dense, any moisture will be squeezed out as snow. If the models are under forecasting the moisture, or not handling the process correctly, there will be more snow than shown. Gotcha, I misinterpreted what you were saying, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kasper said: Could you elaborate for us noobs? Also, the veering of the winds at 700 dry slots that layer killing the qpf output..if it's slower totals would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Can anyone explain why MRX is calling for 2-3" north of I40 but the point and clicks show nothing of the sort, MRX, drinks various flavors of kool-aid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Can anyone explain why MRX is calling for 2-3" north of I40 but the point and clicks show nothing of the sort,Mine is the same way, this happens quite a bit for the Knoxville area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Can anyone explain why MRX is calling for 2-3" north of I40 but the point and clicks show nothing of the sort? If it went up, could mean they have an update coming...not sure tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Can anyone explain why MRX is calling for 2-3" north of I40 but the point and clicks show nothing of the sort, I believe former forecasts are in catches and sometimes you pickup some of these. I can click on my area and get 1 to 2 inches one time and get less than one half inch the next. It is either an old catch or there system is screwed up. I have noticed if I clear my browser and click on my area I get the new forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Mine is the same way, this happens quite a bit for the Knoxville area. . True. I don't want folks to think I am knocking the forecast...but not sure which forecast to roll with. Was wondering if the grids were late in updating. The afternoon disco was pretty much 2-3" north of I-40....but my forecast is .5. I am good either way...but there is a big difference between those amounts when thinking about travel. I think there are probably organizations seeing .5" and may not see the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, bearman said: I believe former forecasts are in catches and sometimes you pickup some of these. I can click on my area and get 1 to 2 inches one time and get less than one half inch the next. It is either an old catch or there system is screwed up. True. Will check on another computer and will update this post... Update: Don't think it is a cache problem. Looks like the point and click does not correlate with either the winter weather advisory and definitely not the afternoon disco. Looks like the afternoon disco is an error maybe? If any of you know those folks, might not hurt to notify MRX of the discrepancy as there are folks making decisions on this and need accurate information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: True. Will check on another computer and will update this post... No need to check. I just got .5 for TRI and 1-2 Knoxville and I haven't visited the point and click in months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 18 minutes ago, Kasper said: MRX, drinks various flavors of kool-aid I was kidding btw, I’ll text Anthony and see what’s up with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: True. Will check on another computer and will update this post... Update: Don't think it is a cache problem. Looks like the point and click does not correlate with either the winter weather advisory and definitely not the afternoon disco. Looks like the afternoon disco is an error maybe? If any of you know those folks, might not hurt to notify MRX of the discrepancy as there are folks making decisions on this and need accurate information. Point and click are computer generated forecasts. The ZFP is written by the Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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