PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 WAA issued for all of E Tennessee. 1-3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 MRX Update: Quote 000 FXUS64 KMRX 151456 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 956 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .DISCUSSION...Overall forecast still on track with only minor updates needed. Temperatures were raised several degrees through the morning and early afternoon with greater cloud cover over the area. Warm temperatures and mostly clear skies expected through the day...with clouds increasing overnight ahead of a cold front. Models try to bring in more moisture to the area...with slightly higher snowfall totals expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to account for the snowfall expected through the late morning and Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I’m still very much not sold on this. I think south of 40 in east TN will be lucky to get a dusting. In fact the NAM has trended that direction this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: I’m still very much not sold on this. I think south of 40 in east TN will be lucky to get a dusting. In fact the NAM has trended that direction this morning. I understand your skepticism for Hamilton County especially, but the 12K NAM squeezes out between .1 and .15 inches for the southern 2/3 of hamilton County. Likely 13 to 15:1 ratios, I would expect 1-2 inches for Chatt proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: MRX Update: I find it hard to believe that MRX is going with warmer temps today, with the cloud cover, I just don’t see it! I’m still at 26 at the moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kasper said: I find it hard to believe that MRX is going with warmer temps today, with the cloud cover, I just don’t see it! I’m still at 26 at the moment! Think there is some WAA ahead of the front today that they are counting on. I saw it last night kick in was down to 15, then at midnight saw it was back up to 22. WAA is a good sign that the front is stout though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I think we will see a lot more 2-4” amounts around Knoxville than 1-2”. If this keeps tilting we’re going to see some training of heavier bursts. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Kasper said: I find it hard to believe that MRX is going with warmer temps today, with the cloud cover, I just don’t see it! I’m still at 26 at the moment! The way that update was worded I think it was a mistake to say temps were going up. I think they meant lower, although Shawn might be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kasper said: I find it hard to believe that MRX is going with warmer temps today, with the cloud cover, I just don’t see it! I’m still at 26 at the moment! More of an observation but here in the Tricities, the sun is out. Will be interesting to see this little system play out. In general, looks like a widespread 1-3 inch snow for the mid-south is on tap. I thought the mountains might even enhance (certainly not inhibit) precipitation in the mountains and northeast valleys, but the NAM is relatively weak for northeast TN. The 6z RGEM was pretty beefy up this way. Mesoscale model battle is on if 12z keeps the "beefy" look for northeast TN. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: More of an observation but here in the Tricities, the sun is out. Will be interesting to see this little system play out. In general, looks like a widespread 1-3 inch snow for the mid-south is on tap. I thought the mountains might even enhance (certainly not inhibit) precipitation in the mountains and northeast valleys, but the NAM is relatively weak for northeast TN. The 6z RGEM was pretty beefy up this way. Mesoscale model battle is on if 12z keeps the "beefy" look for northeast TN. Good luck everyone. Not that often that the entire forum is under winter weather products at the same time. Very cool when it happens even for light events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: Not that often that the entire forum is under winter weather products at the same time. Very cool when it happens even for light events like this. Very true it’s been a while, you’re right Shawn I have a slight SSW at 3 mph, Good Luck everyone! Hopefully we get a nice surprise with totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Is this cold front supposed to be sharp, like the previous one we had on Friday? Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12ZGFS continues to move a lot faster then other models it seems. But totals are little higher then the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 12z GFS is looking more stout on moisture at 30hrs. Absolutely is. Looks as though the GFS is caving. QPFs went up more inline with NAM and Euro and RGEM. 06Z GFS QPF 12Z GFS QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 RGEM totals and RDPS models are showing higher totals to. On 12z Both show a higher amount right on top of my house in loudon I say let it snow I'm off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: Absolutely is. Looks as though the GFS is caving. QPFs went up more inline with NAM and Euro and RGEM. Yep it has caved, not a big surprise there! Looks as if there might be a nice dendritic growth zone setting up! That would be sweet a few hrs of heavy snow and this would really catch everyone by surprise! Well except us of course.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12z ICON and 12z RGEM were the beefiest runs yet for the Eastern Valley. .2-.4 QPF on both models in some spots. The trend in both models is slight backing of the trough compared to previous runs. This doesn’t have as big of an impact for us than it does for NC and points east but it increases the flow from the Gulf. Any slow down of the front allows for more moisture to bank against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said: Is this cold front supposed to be sharp, like the previous one we had on Friday? Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Shouldn't fall as rapid as this past weekend but it will fall likely all day with the snow falling as it is a strong front. We won't be warm when it gets to us so it won't feel as extreme as the last storms drop. But we don't often get snow with the kind of cold we will have with this, there is a certain point you cross usually around 25 degrees or so that if there is no sun, salt doesn't really perform well expect roads will be really bad Wednesday morning with a low in single digits for most. Performance of salt gets worse and worse the lower the temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Shouldn't fall as rapid as this past weekend but it will fall likely all day with the snow falling as it is a strong front. We won't be warm when it gets to us so it won't feel as extreme as the last storms drop. But we don't often get snow with the kind of cold we will have with this, there is a certain point you cross usually around 25 degrees or so that if there is no sun, salt doesn't really perform expect roads will be really bad Wednesday morning with a low in single digits for most.Thanks... once again I really appreciate the details! Still working on contingency plans for school / work schedule... Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Would love to see the 12z icon come to fruition with the moisture hanging up in east tn, a long duration light snow from hour 32-34 and not exiting until hour 52-54 (times roughly for tri but applicable for much of the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12Z GEM is pretty Juicy also in QPF. Many in the forum up to .2" and .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Since the radar is now lighting up out west, need to see which models best match the current radar w intensity and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Anyone notice MRX wording on the WWA, “Portions” they are being very careful! Lol WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the evening commute on Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of one to three inches are expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and Southwest North Carolina. * WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Since the radar is now lighting up out west, need to see which models best match the current radar w intensity and timing. Dont think the HRRR is performing very well ATM. Not picking up the current reflections back in Colorado at the tail end of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 If we get the euro to raise there totals like most models are we might have a nice little system here. Is it normal to see the heavy band set up showing in most models in same spot all but the GFS has my county getting 2-4 I live in loudon county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Curious to see if the temps can reach the expected highs in the low 40s today... TYS is still at 28 and cloudy, but appears the clouds are moving out of the southern valley with respective temp increases (Chatts at 37 now, shot up 7 degrees in the last 2 hours). Looks like the southwest flow is about to come up the valley. Update: Helps to refresh the page, multiple people mentioned this already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: WAA issued for all of E Tennessee. 1-3” . Same thing in west Tennessee as well. I'll gladly take 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Well, I can tell you my work place is not taking this seriously at all. A lot of people are seeing 1inch and thinking it will be fine because typically snow melts on the roads here. I’m gonna have to call out of work because I really don’t want to get stuck there for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Trying to get my bearings, recent trends CMC, ICON, RGEM in the extremely beefy region wide, NAM, GFS, Euro beefy but perhaps not quite as generous as the aforementioned although the nam 12z is better for some areas ...about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Touchet said: Well, I can tell you my work place is not taking this seriously at all. A lot of people are seeing 1inch and thinking it will be fine because typically snow melts on the roads here. I’m gonna have to call out of work because I really don’t want to get stuck there for two days. Yeah this won't likely be the typical little snow that just makes the road wet and melts in an hour. This will be very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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