UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Ill take the ukie too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 gefs juicy too, NWCT or Western MA is my jackpot for this, 8-10 isnt crazy to think up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The better question is what is it good for, and I have heard absolutely nothing. That is awesome! Way to get that reference in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The better question is what is it good for, and I have heard absolutely nothing. Hahaha. Youve won 2018 before January is even over, well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: gefs juicy too, NWCT or Western MA is my jackpot for this, 8-10 isnt crazy to think up there Agree with this, model consensus for the most part keying in on Ma/Ct/Lower Hudson River area for best snows. This makes sense given the tracks of the mid level features. The remaining question is does the initial “overrunning” produce higher amounts for Nj or do they scrape from the developing weak coastal only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 one thing we can infer, models in La Nina....might as well not even be opened till 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 So I guess the second wave is dead??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, kingbaus said: So I guess the second wave is dead??? ya no way that second wave is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 looking at early nam, looks like better heights along the EC and a slightly better trough orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: looking at early nam, looks like better heights along the EC and a slightly better trough orientation Thats 06z VS 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Thats 06z VS 12z. woops wrong one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 same thing, trend still relates, those screaming 250kt, should allow a larger swath of precip north and west of whats being modeled too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Prob too close to event to matter but is EPS in line with op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 For some reason the NAM never even gets precip into SW CT. Snowholed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: looking at early nam, looks like better heights along the EC and a slightly better trough orientation The coast doesn't really want a more amped up solution. Right now the positive tilt allows the surface low to track ENE so that the mid-level stay cold. If this tracked more up and in it could bring more warm air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Anyway, the 18z NAM says what snow? That's why people here should never compliment the NAM as much as they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The coast doesn't really want a more amped up solution. Right now the positive tilt allows the surface low to track ENE so that the mid-level stay cold. If this tracked more up and in it could bring more warm air with it. agreed, but i do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 That was not a good run for the HV. Cuts the qpf in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anyway, the 18z NAM says what snow? That's why people here should never compliment the NAM as much as they do. instead of enhancing our passing features the Low robs it of its energy as it develops offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Certainly a possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anyway, the 18z NAM says what snow? That's why people here should never compliment the NAM as much as they do. Don't say that until it doesn't verify. Anyway, the 18z NAM looks to split the energy more, with the northern and southern aspect becoming more disjointed. The result is there is a "screw zone" where forcing abates before things can get going again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That was not a good run for the HV. Cuts the qpf in half. def a possible outcome, id be worried if other models went drier not wetter today, its a wet outlier as of now, i like the nam so its surprising to see it so weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 NWS issued WWA for N NJ for 2-4" west of the GSP, 4-6" in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Don't say that until it doesn't verify. Anyway, the 18z NAM looks to split the energy more, with the northern and southern aspect becoming more disjointed. The result is there is a "screw zone" where forcing abates before things can get going again The NAM has always been a terrible model and just because it's a had a recent hot streak doesn't matter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 nam at 00z last night was wet, 06 dry, 12z wet, 18z dry.....off runs suck? maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: nam at 00z last night was wet, 06 dry, 12z wet, 18z dry.....off runs suck? maybe Yes, I have noticed the past couple of events the off hour runs have been drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: nam at 00z last night was wet, 06 dry, 12z wet, 18z dry.....off runs suck? maybe It’s been lousy with this event overall. Many features have been jumping from run to run. The most consistent models have probably been the UKMET and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 32 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: NWS issued WWA for N NJ for 2-4" west of the GSP, 4-6" in NW NJ. well since the GSP and NJ TPK both intersect in my town, this distinction usually doesn't mean much for me. I have a feeling from about western Union co NW will do best. I'm thinking best case is 1-3 in my zone. Or less, that's how it usually goes in clippers here. It does seem to want to snow this year though. I'll keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1-3 is a good call for NYC with less in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Forecast Now: C/E LI: C-1" W LI: ~ 1" NYC/SI/NE NJ (E 287 & N 78 & E GSP): 1-3" N NJ (E 287 & N 78 & W GSP): 2-4" N NJ/ SW CT/ LHV ( W 287 & N 78): 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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