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WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

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6 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon.

13-14 certainly didn't suck. I was just pointing out that was a year where we did amazing without a great pattern. Nobody could've said that that winter would be snowy/cold in November with certainty. Most areas got a head start in the Dec 8-9 event (plus 1 more during that week), and We had one of the greatest Late Jan-Late March periods in recent memory. I was just pointing out how we did great during that winter by a -EPO and pure chance. That was the 1 time out of the 3 we get every decade where snow comes easy, only it wasn't in a Mod El Nino like our other 2 bigger winters during the 2000s came. 

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Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon.
Lol

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

I'm assuming you're being sarcastic on this one? 

13-14 was the best winter of the decade IMO, since it was a string of moderate events with constant cold and good snowcover (one of my benchmarks). Constant tracking with RESULTS almost every time.

HECS are lots of fun, but a lot of times those are one-shot deals with long gaps of nothing or rain in between (see 15-16). 

I assume you aren't counting 09'-10' as part of this decade? Lol

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I assume you aren't counting 09'-10' as part of this decade? Lol

It was as close to a 60's winter as you can get. Snow and cold embedded in 4 straight months with pretty stunning totals in both total snowfall and # of events. It doesn't pass 09-10 for total accumulations but for a 4 month winter experience you have to go back basically 50 years to find a close match. 

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GFS gets some wet snow into our area (along with some rain) near hour 150. Has showed up multiple times on separate runs over the past few days, so could be next chance of light accumulations, especially in Western burbs.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh138-162.thumb.gif.c30fda53c2f2df048862c599c1ab911c.gif 

 

 

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And I agree with interstate. Recapping past winters is 100% banter. We all form our own opinions on what is great and what isn't anyways. It always ends up an endless debate that accomplishes nothing because we all perceive things differently. 

Let's stick to the future. Looks a lot better than at any time last year. 

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

GFS gets some wet snow into our area (along with some rain) near hour 150. Has showed up multiple times on separate runs over the past few days, so could be next chance of light accumulations, especially in Western burbs.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh138-162.thumb.gif.c30fda53c2f2df048862c599c1ab911c.gif 

 

 

850s are stone cold.  Surface warm but that shouldn’t be too much rain if it happens like that.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

And I agree with interstate. Recapping past winters is 100% banter. We all form our own opinions on what is great and what isn't anyways. It always ends up an endless debate that accomplishes nothing because we all perceive things differently. 

Let's stick to the future. Looks a lot better than at any time last year. 

This.

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16 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

18z GFS brings some little snow in the region Jan 29/30 from a little clipper. Past few runs have shown differences in where it tracks, but there's that.

Yeah. It's an interesting difference between the 12Z run and 18Z. It still squashes the southern storm but gives us snow from the upper stream feature. Really different from anything else.

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47 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Yeah 13-14 winter sucked, wouldn't be surprised if February does the same thing again. Just gonna bandwagon.

LOL!  Is this snark?  Or just trolling?  Being honest here.  I don't want to venture too much into banter debating what winter is better than another, but this...just no.  Just for the record, I'd consider 2013-14 easily the 3rd best winter in the time I've lived in this area (moved here in 2001).  Almost 2nd, but I'm hard pressed to put it ahead of the season that had PD-II! :D  But the sheer number of trackable events that year...wow!

More on topic, I'm very glad to see that indications getting into early February are more or less on track.  I don't expect much of anything the remainder of January.  But if we get a snow TV mini paste bomb next week as an "appetizer", I won't complain!  Some of those 12Z GEFS ensemble members that Bob showed earlier were quite nice for the early part of February.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. It's an interesting difference between the 12Z run and 18Z. It still squashes the southern storm but gives us snow from the upper stream feature. Really different from anything else.

Yea...it looks like it splits the n.energy that run and the blob of precip the snow comes from is from the trailer or 2nd piece. 

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...it looks like it splits the n.energy that run and the blob of precip the snow comes from is from the trailer or 2nd piece. 

My guess is that little trailing vort is just a phantom. Too subtle and too far out in time for an op to get that right. 

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Kudos to @wxmvpete on twitter. Thought it was worth a mention.

DUPT37tWsAEvB5K.jpg

This is the 2nd driest Nov 1 to Jan 22 period ever in the DC area.

#1 is Jan 1966 but the funny part is that there was a blizzard a week later. 

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1 hour ago, Mordecai said:

Kudos to @wxmvpete on twitter. Thought it was worth a mention.

DUPT37tWsAEvB5K.jpg

This is the 2nd driest Nov 1 to Jan 22 period ever in the DC area.

#1 is Jan 1966 but the funny part is that there was a blizzard a week later. 

These forums need a different reaction button to when there's something cool posted, but quite unpleasant reality.

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