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WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

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59 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I would be OK with a little relaxed version of what we had in late Dec early Jan.  The overwhelming cold is a little underwhelming with regards to snow chances.

I did notice that the end of gefs the PV seems to strengthen a bit and make a move toward the pole.  Hopefully we see another weakening and displacement once we get the EPO ridge back...

The thoughts by some strat followers is that the PV takes a hit at the end of this month and it continues as the month of Feb. progresses. So,  what you say about the gefs is most likely not a big concern at ths time.  

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Given this mean it doesn't surprise me there are still some holdout flush hits in the gefs and that their centered over our area.  That's a mediocre look but it's a mean. If some members have a slightly stronger negative to our northeast and slightly stronger blocking suddenly it opens up a small window of opportunity.  It's transient but it could be something. EPS doesn't like it at all though. Low odds but not impossible. 

IMG_3702.thumb.PNG.1bb27ebeb7c86d2f431fde063a0730de.PNG

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Weeklies look like what we expected. -EPO builds through week 3. Step down pattern during the first week of Feb then a general "decent" winter pattern all the way through into early March. Coldest relative to normal during the first week of March which is good because by then we need solid BN for snow. Overall the pattern during the second half of Feb reminds me of Feb 14&15. Not a lot of blocking but a decent -EPO/+PNA couplet and trop PV wobbling around hudson. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look like what we expected. -EPO builds through week 3. Step down pattern during the first week of Feb then a general "decent" winter pattern all the way through into early March. Coldest relative to normal during the first week of March which is good because by then we need solid BN for snow. Overall the pattern during the second half of Feb reminds me of Feb 14&15. Not a lot of blocking but a decent -EPO/+PNA couplet and trop PV wobbling around hudson. 

Was just looking at it and I concur. No real signs of sustained help in the NA but the EPO/PNA get good mid month forward. Going to be a bit of a fight to get cold back in the east initially it appears, probably beyond the 10th if this is close to reality. Looks like latter 2 weeks of Feb into March could be rockin, or at least we hope lol.

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@psuhoffman

Saw that, and GEFS had 2 members that dumped on the entire forum. Wonder if that look will persist and continue to have members showing the potential, or if it will cave to the EPS and what the EPS is showing. 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look like what we expected. -EPO builds through week 3. Step down pattern during the first week of Feb then a general "decent" winter pattern all the way through into early March. Coldest relative to normal during the first week of March which is good because by then we need solid BN for snow. Overall the pattern during the second half of Feb reminds me of Feb 14&15. Not a lot of blocking but a decent -EPO/+PNA couplet and trop PV wobbling around hudson. 

We could hope the control is right lol

IMG_3703.thumb.PNG.540331d63dcfd0f9b56376e7beaa29c0.PNG

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That snow map is a joke but the way the control does that is how we would have to win. The combo of the epo and pna sets up a favorable boundary location and wave after wave rides along it. None of that snow is from some amped up coastal bomb just a series of waves along the boundary. Very similar to 2014 & 2015. The big difference on this run vs the last cold shot is the big cold dumps are centered to our north not south. That's important. We don't want a big blue ball centered over the Tennessee Valley unless there is some pretty serious block to force jet buckling. Minus that it's cold dry. Better off being near the southern boundary of the cold and try to win the gradient game in an epo driven pattern. 

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I'm totally good with the weeklies run. 3 solid weeks of an ok pattern. Who knows, maybe March pulls off a 14/15 too. 

Psu, agree about the lw pattern looking good for waves running it. We've won that way before. Let's try it again. Next thing I would like to see is the regular ens rolling the trough forward out of the west and in our direction without delays. We'll know within a week....

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm totally good with the weeklies run. 3 solid weeks of an ok pattern. Who knows, maybe March pulls off a 14/15 too. 

Psu, agree about the lw pattern looking good for waves running it. We've won that way before. Let's try it again. Next thing I would like to see is the regular ens rolling the trough forward out of the west and in our direction without delays. We'll know within a week....

Can that work out without the 14/15 warm blob?

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Can that work out without the 14/15 warm blob?

We had epo help plenty this year. The problem was almost too much. It drove the core of the cold down into the middle of the eastern Conus and just crushed everything. Then we got unlucky in our chances at modest events to boot. But we don't need that warm pool to get a -epo. 

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10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Can that work out without the 14/15 warm blob?

The warm blob is a chicken or egg debate. IMHO- the warm blob was a byproduct of the pattern and maybe caused a small amount of feedback at best. The area that it covered was really small and also think about the actual temperature of the water there. The difference between 45 and 50 degree water is probably insignificant. It looks "warm" on the ssta anomaly panels but in reality it still just chilly npac water either way. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The warm blob is a chicken or egg debate. IMHO- the warm blob was a byproduct of the pattern and maybe caused a small amount of feedback at best. The area that it covered was really small and also think about the actual temperature of the water there. The difference between 45 and 50 degree water is probably insignificant. It looks "warm" on the ssta anomaly panels but in reality it still just chilly npac water either way. 

That comment disappoints me.

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The reality is ssta values matter.

Bob didn't make a flippant comment nor did he say ssta don't matter. He clearly explained that the ssta over a relatively small domain in that specific location is unlikely to have caused the extreme epo pattern we had. It's way more likely they were part effect and at best part of a feedback loop to a small degree.  

Ssta is not a universal. They matter more in the tropics where a bigger proportion of energy/heat is added to the equation. The effects of a ssta in the North Pacific isn't as great. The difference in heat being added to the atmosphere due to 49 degree water vs 43 is way different from the difference between 75 and 80 degree water.  It's not a 1-1 correlation. 

I do not think bob was dismissing your question. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Bob didn't make a flippant comment nor did he say ssta don't matter. He clearly explained that the ssta over a relatively small domain in that specific location is unlikely to have caused the extreme epo pattern we had. It's way more likely they were part effect and at best part of a feedback loop to a small degree.  

Ssta is not a universal. They matter more in the tropics where a bigger proportion of energy/heat is added to the equation. The effects of a ssta in the North Pacific isn't as great. The difference in heat being added to the atmosphere due to 49 degree water vs 43 is way different from the difference between 75 and 80 degree water.  It's not a 1-1 correlation. 

I do not think bob was dismissing your question. 

I came on too strong about my disagreement, so sorry.  I'm in the process of plotting January 2014 to see when the blob did eventually show.  Arguably, this year can become last year just as well as 2014 based on the historical context.  I continue to be skeptical about where we're heading until 2019, but I'll tone that down a lot more.

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Here's a couple notes about comparing the scenarios.  The strength of the warm Pacific waters leading into 2014 were stronger and better positioned when comparing to this year.  I won't say that can't change down the road.  A big positive sign to the current look I just noticed is there was a notable cold blob last winter during the December pattern that is not present currently from last month. 

December2013warmblob.png

December2014weakeningwarmblob.png

December2016weakcoldblob.png

December2017weakwarmblob.png

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The epo hasn't been the problem. At times it's the only thing we had. The current pacific 2-3 week relaxation is being driven by tropical forcing not the North Pacific imo. 

When you say tropical forcing, I'm guessing you're concerned about where the SOI has been trending in the short-medium range?

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10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

When you say tropical forcing, I'm guessing you're concerned about where the SOI has been trending in the short-medium range?

I think that is related to the MJO passage , I believe it hit, or may hit + 30 as per JB , but that should reverse dowen the road 

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28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont want to clutter this thread up. But that is PATHETIC. Only place on the east coast without snow is HERE.

It's called "being unlucky". Missing storms by 50, 100 , 150 miles is what we've been doing so far this winter. 

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On which model?
Gfs looked different from 18z to 00z but still nothing

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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I wonder if the 16 blizzard has spoiled us a bit lol. That storm was definitely of legendary status here and I still view old pics occasionally. That cold stretch we had recently was legit. We just got unlucky. Still plenty of time.

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2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

It's called "being unlucky". Missing storms by 50, 100 , 150 miles is what we've been doing so far this winter. 

Yep all about missing the connections by 6-8 hours would make the difference what you get in a progressive flow with minimal blocking. 

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Not because I am particularly high on the period at this point but more so just to have something to track, roughly around day 11 might have some potential. Both the GEFS and the EPS are suggesting the possibility of energy running up from the south as a cold front pulls through the region. The signal there seems to be getting marginally stronger as well. But we have been down this road several times already this winter (waiting/hoping for cold to filter in as trailing energy pulls up through the region). But again, it may be something to at least track to get us through a slow period of time. 

I am still liking the idea of a flip in the NPAC in a couple of weeks or so (The extended actually looks to be in the transition period). Also still seeing indications of ridging developing into Greenland in the longer range but this winter I will believe that when I actually see it occurring.

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