Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

WinterWxLuvr

January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

Recommended Posts

CFS and EPS weeklies look very similar to kick off March. If they looked way different I would discount both but the similarities do add some confidence....as much confidence as you can have in a 6 week prog...lol

dp1vCxc.jpg

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks to hold right into March. In like a lion from how it looks right now. Subject to change 43 times but right now I'm already shoveling the March MECS in my mind. 

well mitchnick asked for a pattern change to deep warm...lets see if his theory holds and we come back with a southern jet attacking cold arctic Highs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

whats happening on the the immediate coast here lol...more big snows for the beach?

 

wk3.wk4_20180117.NAsfcT.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro weeklies week 6 qpf anom plot looks good too

lJ7h8RT.jpg

looks like the same as its now...snow to our south and on the beach. Notice how the green stops just shy of DC lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ji said:

well mitchnick asked for a pattern change to deep warm...lets see if his theory holds and we come back with a southern jet attacking cold arctic Highs

The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS and EPS weeklies look very similar to kick off March. If they looked way different I would discount both but the similarities do add some confidence....as much confidence as you can have in a 6 week prog...lol

dp1vCxc.jpg

 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_6.png

looks like more of the same man...no split flow...lots of northern stream stuff....i guess your hoping for a March 1999

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

looks like the same as its now...snow to our south and on the beach. Notice how the green stops just shy of DC lol

Having the green within 100 miles on a 6 week prog is pretty good. Just be glad it isn't pink. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:

looks like more of the same man...no split flow...lots of northern stream stuff....i guess your hoping for a March 1999

I was thinking more of march 14-15. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. 

like watching the wizards give up 133 points to the worst offensive team in the league. I swear...Ted Leonsis has let Ernie ruin this franchise longer for 15 year. I have seen like 5 once in a lifetime snowstorms in Ernie's tenure. We really need the HM storm to work out cause in winter, i dont have any other hobbies

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You want me to blow smoke and BS you?

sure

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. 

woodworking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro control drops 6" on my yard on the 30th. Only 3" in leesburg. Sorry dude. 

gotta trust the GFS more. Sorry dude. Especially since we do so well with back end snow

 

image.thumb.png.33bb4970e663192cf8e12b0631b0e98f.png

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies.

Thought the same thing this morning and gefs seem to do the same.  Trough axis goes from off the west coast to the rockies/W plains.  I am hpefull for something to pop as the pattern transitions the first week of feb.  Could still have an active pattern and pressing cold.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies.

6z GEFS looks like that as well way out at the end. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z GEFS looks like that as well way out at the end. 

Embedded in the EPS members shows quite a spread. Mean h5 looks fairly disgusting but inside of the members it looks like half are blasting a sig front through the MW into the east by the end. My guess is when the pattern shifts it will be abrupt. There will be one final push of warmth in advance of a pattern changing front. IMHO- it's more of a when discussion versus an if discussion. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HM storm is farther north on the 12z GFS, but damn it’s fast flow. Seems like it would be hard for anything to turn the corner up the coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC also has the HM storm along the coast, verbatim I guess it's rain for us but it's really close. 

Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

Maybe I'm mixing things up, isn't this one the HM storm?

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Very possible I've been looking at the wrong thing though. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

I think if we are able to eek out anything over the next 2 weeks it would look something like this. A thump and then hopefully dryslot..lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Maybe I'm mixing things up, isn't this one the HM storm?

Very possible I've been looking at the wrong thing though. 

Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. 


Definitely a long shot. Like I mentioned early, enough GEFS members have something in the area to keep me interested. It’s nice that the Canadian has a low going up the coast, since WxUSAF just said that would be hard to get happening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. 

I just want you know...we’re all counting on you...to be wrong. :lol:

 

eta: just this time and this time only

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×