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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Well, I apologize, gym. I wasn't trying to be combative. My bad. I will step out.

Did I miss something?  Hope I didn't get into the middle of anything, I thought we were just having a casual conversation about past moderate vs significant events and our perceptions of their frequency.  I didn't pick up on any hostility or anything but I have been distracted and not following every post lately so maybe I am out of the loop.  I was just throwing my thouhts out there so hopefully nothing I said was taken as a shot or hostile.

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I was not aware of how pronouced the Western Pacific MJO wave was .  This combined with the events at the top later this month point to a real change coming. 

Looking forward to real pressure being focused on the PV both from the East and the West .

 

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GEFS loaded up again with gradient type storms starting around the Feb 3rd. Probably one of the best looks I've seen combing precip with cold nearby all winter. Not all storms are snow but compared to where we've been all winter...this looks like a real window coming into focus. A lot of waves running boundary type of events showing up.

YCXEzfp.png

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57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If nothing else...the 12z gfs called our number for both the crosshairs and right side of the gradient. 

I liked the back to back systems from Feb 4th to the 7th... hopefully it will remain there.  Day 10-15 on both the GFS/GEFS certainly suggest potential for some decent weather events.  As you said, lets hope we are on the right side of the gradient -- if we are, we will have a good amount of fun and tracking.

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Just now, yoda said:

I liked the back to back systems from Feb 4th to the 7th... hopefully it will remain there.  Day 10-15 on both the GFS/GEFS certainly suggest potential for some decent weather events.  As you said, lets hope we are on the right side of the gradient -- if we are, we will have a good amount of fun and tracking.

What we need is a general long duration pattern supportive of precip with cold overhead or nearby. Screw these tiny windows embedded in cold/boring/dry. It doesn't looks like a cold pattern so I'm already prepared for the complaints about snow melting 1-2 days after it falls and all that stuff or warm ground or whatever else. lol. I'm in numbers mode now. I just want to see snow fall and pile up. It can melt in 4 hours after it shuts off and IDGAF. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I liked the back to back systems from Feb 4th to the 7th... hopefully it will remain there.  Day 10-15 on both the GFS/GEFS certainly suggest potential for some decent weather events.  As you said, lets hope we are on the right side of the gradient -- if we are, we will have a good amount of fun and tracking.

The transitory gradient step down seems like it wants to takes its sweet time . Hopefully we score a few times as it would appear there will be intial resistance to the incoming cold. Looking better and better for early to mid Feb.     

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

The transitory gradient step down seems like it wants to takes its sweet time . Hopefully we score a few times as it would appear there will be intial resistance to the incoming cold. Looking better and better for early to mid Feb.     

We probably want it to take time or even just hang around in general. Ensemble means d15 look just like the CFS weeklies week 3. Week 4 isn't good though. Rolls the EPO/PNA ridge forward. This would be a dry pattern here for sure. Looks pretty good weeks 4-6 though. Regression back to the gradient look with plenty of cold. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EURO Apps runner Day 6-7


GFS/CMC went total flat nothingness and the euro is keeping the amplified double wave idea alive. A bit of a model war but too far out for ops to really be at odds. We'll see how it looks in 2-3 days. EPS still had the same spread of 20+/- members dropping a trace or more but nothing exciting on at the top end. We prob need to sit on our hands for a week or so before good stuff starts coming into range. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:


GFS/CMC went total flat nothingness and the euro is keeping the amplified double wave idea alive. A bit of a model war but too far out for ops to really be at odds. We'll see how it looks in 2-3 days. EPS still had the same spread of 20+/- members dropping a trace or more but nothing exciting on at the top end. We prob need to sit on our hands for a week or so before good stuff starts coming into range. 

I agree Bob, I will put my money on the GFS/CMC combo based on past experiences this winter season. But tracking is coming up again soon.

 

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41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All ops and ens have the same look. "Should" be the final trough ejecting from the west before the pac improves. 

What is your guess for the Euro weeklies coming out later ?  Maintain the pattern change and push it up a few days? 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, frd said:

What is your guess for the Euro weeklies coming out later ?  Maintain the pattern change and push it up a few days? 

 

 

Weeklies basically just extend the previous 0z run and last nights eps already had the cold in here by the 6th. The thing I'm most curious about with tonight's weeklies is whether or not the EPO ridge rolls forward and shifts the trough axis too far east in our area. 0z EPS already had the axis centered just east of the MS river so my guess is week 3 looks cold and dry. lol.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies basically just extend the previous 0z run and last nights eps already had the cold in here by the 6th. The thing I'm most curious about with tonight's weeklies is whether or not the EPO ridge rolls forward and shifts the trough axis too far east in our area. 0z EPS already had the axis centered just east of the MS river so my guess is week 3 looks cold and dry. lol.

Didn't you say eariler you thought even if the EPO ridge rolls too far East, it would retrograde back West later possibly, providing another prime window, granted that's way out there but interesting to say the least.     

I feel with the MJO in the right phase, at the right month, puts us in the game for a big event mid Feb. And,  the way the MJO phases look to progress it would be possible the entire month of Feb. to wind up colder than normal, maybe by a lot.  

 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Didn't you say eariler you thought even if the EPO ridge rolls too far East, it would retrograde back West later possibly, providing another prime window, granted that's way out there but interesting to say the least.     

I feel with the MJO in the right phase, at the right month, puts us in the game for a big event mid Feb. And,  the way the MJO phases look to progress it would be possible the entire month of Feb. to wind up colder than normal, maybe by a lot.  

 

You better hope it doesn't.  if it ends up much colder than normal, then there is a good chance it ends up drier than normal too.

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