CAPE Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You want me to blow smoke and BS you? sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The next week is going to be terrible unless the trailing vort pans out. Assuming it doesn't, there's going to be nothing to track for a full week +. Going to be quiet in here. If the shift in early Feb starts gaining traction on ens plots then we'll probably start feeling better. Until then...concentrate on other hobbies. woodworking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: sure Euro control drops 6" on my yard on the 30th. Only 3" in leesburg. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro control drops 6" on my yard on the 30th. Only 3" in leesburg. Sorry dude. gotta trust the GFS more. Sorry dude. Especially since we do so well with back end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies. Thought the same thing this morning and gefs seem to do the same. Trough axis goes from off the west coast to the rockies/W plains. I am hpefull for something to pop as the pattern transitions the first week of feb. Could still have an active pattern and pressing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Rolling 0z EPS @day 15 forward, it looks like the Pac (PNA/EPO) may be reconfiguring more in our favor. Mean trough shifting east. It might be the second week in Feb before we get back to a truly favorable pattern. Hopefully sooner. Be interesting to see the new weeklies. 6z GEFS looks like that as well way out at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z GEFS looks like that as well way out at the end. Embedded in the EPS members shows quite a spread. Mean h5 looks fairly disgusting but inside of the members it looks like half are blasting a sig front through the MW into the east by the end. My guess is when the pattern shifts it will be abrupt. There will be one final push of warmth in advance of a pattern changing front. IMHO- it's more of a when discussion versus an if discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You want me to blow smoke and BS you? Not sure why you are bothering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 HM storm is farther north on the 12z GFS, but damn it’s fast flow. Seems like it would be hard for anything to turn the corner up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Cmc day 9 and 10 would work. A lot of CAD. Has a .000001 % chance of happening but nice to see...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Cmc day 9 and 10 would work. A lot of CAD. Has a .000001 % chance of happening but nice to see...lol CMC also has the HM storm along the coast, verbatim I guess it's rain for us but it's really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC also has the HM storm along the coast, verbatim I guess it's rain for us but it's really close. Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. Maybe I'm mixing things up, isn't this one the HM storm? Very possible I've been looking at the wrong thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 I figure this one will trigger a meltdown for the usual suspects. The closest match at 500 I have is 2/19/12.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Would be a mixed event. Decent CAD hp out in front but retreating. These types of tracks can be friendly to the western crew. I think if we are able to eek out anything over the next 2 weeks it would look something like this. A thump and then hopefully dryslot..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Maybe I'm mixing things up, isn't this one the HM storm? Very possible I've been looking at the wrong thing though. Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. Definitely a long shot. Like I mentioned early, enough GEFS members have something in the area to keep me interested. It’s nice that the Canadian has a low going up the coast, since WxUSAF just said that would be hard to get happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ah, my fault. Personally, I don't see much chance with the HM storm but I've been plenty wrong plenty of times. I just want you know...we’re all counting on you...to be wrong. eta: just this time and this time only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 26 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Cmc day 9 and 10 would work. A lot of CAD. Has a .000001 % chance of happening but nice to see...lol I'd buy 5-10 inches that the CMC shows lol. The western crew cashes in well too. Too bad it will likely be gone next run... its probably the first chance we will get to see some wintry precip coming out of this "warm" pattern. What's also interesting, if correct, it looks like our usual way of getting good snows -- CAD helps us stay snow, and as the system winds down/moves by we switch over to a lil bit of light rain/drizzle to end the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, Scraff said: I just want you know...we’re all counting on you...to be wrong. eta: just this time and this time only With the way this year has gone...it's probably a good thing I'm not taking it seriously. Inverse podiatry and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The Icon delivers It does, but that HP needs a bit of a kick to get here since the precip is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Gfs has Hp in right place at least Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Welp folks....our 10 day non tracking period lasted 10 minutes. I'll be staying up for the 12z euro Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 4 out of 20 gefs members give us accum snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With the way this year has gone...it's probably a good thing I'm not taking it seriously. Inverse podiatry and stuff. So...does this mean you think we'll get a foot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...i was just looking at h5.... but I see it's a little warm verbatim . I'd take my chances though with the track. Especially in January (IE track) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 Certainly a camp that bring the low up the coast this run compared to 06z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 4 out of 20 gefs members give us accum snow4/20 is Better than are usual odds lol...this is how we score....dirtySent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 On that note...the CMC storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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