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Days and days of snow disco


Damage In Tolland

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was an extraordinary event.

Not extraordinary snowfall wise, but anything that drops near a foot in NYC and Boston is jettisoned into the KU annals by default.

Not only that, but a storm that had already undergone max intensification well south and was hauling arse.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I know, right? 

I think the 3-6" forecast for most of CT with less coast and more NW Hills is in decent shape. 

Yeah there isn't a whole lot to go on with meh midlevels and almost-certainly-erratic mesoscale aspects that are not easy to pin down. There will porb some weenies bands near/just north the warm front in the boundary layer....NW CT sees the most consistent snows with the inverted trough already setting up there tonight.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there isn't a whole lot to go on with meh midlevels and almost-certainly-erratic mesoscale aspects that are not easy to pin down. There will porb some weenies bands near/just north the warm front in the boundary layer....NW CT sees the most consistent snows with the inverted trough already setting up there tonight.

Yeah I bet some places have over 1.5" already up there. So they'll be good with 6" or so.

I really don't know about the Hartford area. We're totally reliant on getting some of that low level forcing in and who the hell knows how that will go. 

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42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was an extraordinary event.

Not extraordinary snowfall wise, but anything that drops near a foot in NYC and Boston is jettisoned into the KU annals by default.

Had it slowed it would have been quite historic. It was impressive here for a storm that was in and out in 12 hrs. 78 lasted for 36 hrs.

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1 hour ago, Hoth said:

I'm really feeling a full-on screwgie down here. You can just see those two separate areas of forcing and the two lane pleasure cruise of jack schiat between on radar. It would almost be fitting if that NAM run that blanked me comes to fruition. Of course, even if something does get in here it might well be rain. F this stupid waste and F that system out West that wrecked our PNA and turned a high potential setup into this mundane monstrosity, this mountain of meh, this mehlstrom of mush. Its mother was a hamster, and its father smelt of elderberries. Time to refocus for late Jan, early Feb.

Now that is a high quality melt! Bravo!

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Almost looks like they're doing the more mid level forcing to your west, but enhancing lift near the coastal front too, leaving you stuck in between.

Luckily it's the RAP and HRRR beyond 6 hours where they can be terrible...but RGEM kind of hinted at it too. Luckily NAM/GFS didn't....but I'd rather the RGEM not be doing it...it actually has skill.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Luckily it's the RAP and HRRR beyond 6 hours where they can be terrible...but RGEM kind of hinted at it too. Luckily NAM/GFS didn't....but I'd rather the RGEM not be doing it...it actually has skill.

Given the lower level nature of the forcing, you would think the coastal front has a bigger impact on the outcome than normal. 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Given the lower level nature of the forcing, you would think the coastal front has a bigger impact on the outcome than normal. 

I've been thinking all along there will be a good swath of totals just north of that 900-950mb front. But models aren't really that excited about the idea. Of course, we also don't know exactly where it's going to set up shop either...10-15 miles either way could impact a spot location pretty big.

The guidance has made the front a bit more diffuse since yesterday, but my guess we will still see some "surprises" associated with it. It's also why I think the totals SW of BOS might have been shaved too much...I think there is a realistic risk there for a swath of 4"+ totals. But yet the HRRR/RAP laugh at me.

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