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Days and days of snow disco


Damage In Tolland

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14 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Don't be upset and sad with your 2-4.  I am fine with my 1-3.

 

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you ever follow along? Or just read like half a page of posts? You should get 4-6 as mets said and my area up to ORH west are in the 6-8” range with a few lucky spots at 10”

Trend has not been our friend, my friend.  Obvious was obvious by mid day yesterday, at least for points mid state and east.

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12 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

 

Trend has not been our friend, my friend.  Obvious was obvious by mid day yesterday, at least for points mid state and east.

You are right. This one didn’t work out. A terrible terrible job by me. I was awful. Good job to Pickles and whomever called it. They won, and got their wish. Hopefully February works out 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are right. This one didn’t work out. A terrible terrible job by me. I was awful. Good job to Pickles and whomever called it. They won, and got their wish. Hopefully February works out 

I don't think anyone wished it. Who the hell wishes against a good snow storm?  Unless I missed something.  

Overall I think we've had a pretty good December and January so far don't you think?  Most places in CT will have between 20-30" of snow so far this season.  That is not bad considering what could have been.  I sure as hell hope we rip during Feb. and into March.  

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not sure anyone in SNE is pulling warning totals out of this one.  It started to look more disorganized than most models were hinting at by midnight last night.  This was not a great model performance, some mesos did ok with where the best banding would be but definitely and underperformer.

Mesos started to really show this last night. The whole setup was a little strange. I'm not surprised it will be on the low end.

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13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

" ... it's an event that's spraying solutions all over the place by some models, with max QPF nodes next to nadirs, mere townships apart and never in the same spot the next cycle either.

My experience with that is that it usually under performs, and spit, band-aide and shoe laces cobbling together events by the models ... they tend to disappoint.  .. But, we'll see...  Perhaps the we'll get a more congealed rad presentation out of this.  It just wouldn't shock me if the whole lot of it is over forecast - not that anyone has any choice in the matter.

nyuk nyuk nyuk... 

 

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Looking at the model runs yesterday, man what a massive QPF and temperature failure by pretty much all models...looks like that worked in the favor of some and not others.  

But modeling this season has seemed less than stellar with this La Niña flow.  You have no idea what you're gonna get.

chocolates_tsdlg.jpg

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are right. This one didn’t work out. A terrible terrible job by me. I was awful. Good job to Pickles and whomever called it. They won, and got their wish. Hopefully February works out 

I don’t think anybody was wishing things to go bad for you or anything like that.  That’s where you are incorrect on most people in here.  Nobody wishes you to bust in your calls, or not get any snow.  

Your calls yesterday were obviously way overblown(it was clear you were trying to convince yourself that this system was a decent one..when it was becoming clear it wasn’t).

We’re all snow weenies here..and we all want that great feeling of knowing a solid event is incoming...that’s the best.  But when things are trending away, try not to bark at people telling them they aren’t following along or what aren’t we getting??  

Believe Me, years ago I used to do that same stuff...try and convince myself that the goods were still/might still come, even when the modeling was going the opposite way. It’s not worth the hassle and nonsense energy expenditure of self convincing.

 

I know now how much you love snow, cuz I do too..and so does everybody here(well except for that wrestler guy), I give you credit for seeing this now for what it was looking like yesterday. The best part of this, is the learning aspect. 

I’m Looking forward to tracking our next winter event DIT. Keep your chin up :)

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The ol' emotional forecaster... your desires are your forecast.  You don't forecast logically but with what you want.

Except that’s not what I did. Based on Euro , Reggie, they were all giving 5-7” here. I was banking on the 925 warm front and forcing. It didn’t work out. I’m not sure why or what happened. Bottom line , I sucked 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro sh*t itself big time.

There were elements of models that worked out pretty well in hind-sight.  Mesos had a pretty good handle down in this area keeping the 925mb warmth offshore.  GFS was like this as well for the most part.  Euro/RGEM overplayed the dymanics further W and I believe this led to the warmth flooding inland more.  The band out W was there but I'm not sure the forcing was enough, especially with the weak onshore flow.

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except that’s not what I did. Based on Euro , Reggie, they were all giving 5-7” here. I was banking on the 925 warm front and forcing. It didn’t work out. I’m not sure why or what happened. Bottom line , I sucked 

Fair enough dude, it just seemed whenever a run wasn't perfect there was a reason to toss it and go with another piece of guidance.  I never wish a negative bust on anyone.  I had 4-8" too for you too.

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31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

There were elements of models that worked out pretty well in hind-sight.  Mesos had a pretty good handle down in this area keeping the 925mb warmth offshore.  GFS was like this as well for the most part.  Euro/RGEM overplayed the dymanics further W and I believe this led to the warmth flooding inland more.  The band out W was there but I'm not sure the forcing was enough, especially with the weak onshore flow.

Yeah when I saw the HRRR staying cold, I started thinking the mount of QPF would be the issue. That fronto band producing the 5-7" isn't a surprise. But I thought central MA into CTR would be much better.

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fair enough dude, it just seemed whenever a run wasn't perfect there was a reason to toss it and go with another piece of guidance.  I never wish a negative bust on anyone.  I had 4-8" too for you too.

This.

 

There’s usually a model that will show you what you want...the old “fool yourself into believing things aren’t falling apart” idea.  Ya, been there done that before.  

Objective forecasting isn’t as easy as it seems.  

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at the model runs yesterday, man what a massive QPF and temperature failure by pretty much all models...looks like that worked in the favor of some and not others.  

But modeling this season has seemed less than stellar with this La Niña flow.  You have no idea what you're gonna get.

This was a tough event...the forcing in the midlevels was pretty weak, so relying on LL forcing can be tricky. If the BL doesn't produce that as much as models show, then things can get pretty ragged...esp away from the front. There was the inverted trough and weak ML forcing to the west in the Berks and E NY...and then the better LL forcing ended up over far eastern CT into E MA and RI...stayed colder in SE areas, but the forcing ended up a bit weaker so overall QPF was lower too. Central CT was caught in the middle.

I've seen these events go both ways...we had one back in March 2008 that produced a nice stripe 7" over central MA into SE NH when it was looking kind of meh...and then I've seen it happen like today where nobody really seems to get hammered....parts of SE NH are doing ok I guess, but pretty narrow area.

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