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Days and days of snow disco


Damage In Tolland

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46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't had a chance to look at anything today...if everything is trending colder, what is shoving the higher amounts west, the mid levels?

Looks like to me its with the track of H7, This whole system is rather weak and an open wave that really never closes off at any level other then briefly @H5 but its way south and east of us up here.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If you believe the GFS???

 

Euro and RGEM and SWiss model are looking fine.  Of hour GFS never fails to surprise in one way or the other...

Ya I certainly don't wanna believe but at this point who knows.  The numbers on this one have been all over the place.  It does seem like an off run though.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I approve.

Lots of emotional swings as the models swing inside 24hrs. Information overload. 

Very disorganized system, There is not one model that wraps this up like it was days ago, It will be interesting to see which ones handle it the best, I would think the Euro/RGEM would be good choices right now, But i guess we will have to look at the 0z runs, The 18z runs were not helpful and sometimes are not at all.

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The modeling has certainly been all over the place.  A run for Everyone is the motto for this system.  Everyone in SNE has had a good run from some model, and a bad run from some model...even as we are approaching go time.  I'm going with the latest Euro/RGEM for my hood...it's been the most consistent(if one can even say that) as of late.   We'll see how it shakes out??? 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I approve.

Lots of emotional swings as the models swing inside 24hrs. Information overload. 

That's why I think its good to keep the ranges relatively wide (as wide as is practical this close in)......4-8" is a range I like for most folks who are going to stay snow in this. I think basically anyone more than 10-15 miles off the coast will probably stay snow.

 

I doubt that those runs with 2" of snow for those who stay snow are going to verify, and I'd be a little skeptical of the 0.90" qpf bomb runs too.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's why I think its good to keep the ranges relatively wide (as wide as is practical this close in)......4-8" is a range I like for most folks who are going to stay snow in this. I think basically anyone more than 10-15 miles off the coast will probably stay snow.

 

I doubt that those runs with 2" of snow for those who stay snow are going to verify, and I'd be a little skeptical of the 0.90" qpf bomb runs too.

concur 100%

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Very disorganized system, There is not one model that wraps this up like it was days ago, It will be interesting to see which ones handle it the best, I would think the Euro/RGEM would be good choices right now, But i guess we will have to look at the 0z runs, The 18z runs were not helpful and sometimes are not at all.

Thats the way to go, euro/rgem. I cant trust any of these mesos. If this burns me, so be it. 

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18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's why I think its good to keep the ranges relatively wide (as wide as is practical this close in)......4-8" is a range I like for most folks who are going to stay snow in this. I think basically anyone more than 10-15 miles off the coast will probably stay snow.

 

I doubt that those runs with 2" of snow for those who stay snow are going to verify, and I'd be a little skeptical of the 0.90" qpf bomb runs too.

ALY used to issue Winter Weather Advisories for 3-8" all the time back in the day for their hill-town zones.... that seems like a nice range to use in this one too, ha.

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