ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 0c at 925 gets all the way past Framingham Prob too aggressive. I'd sell that. Most guidance struggles to get it much NW of like marshfield to dighton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 0c at 925 gets all the way past Framingham Paging zeus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Prob too aggressive. I'd sell that. Most guidance struggles to get it much NW of like marshfield to dighton. Yup. When the GFS is cold.. it pretty much tells you all you need to know. Man, what happened to the Euro.. they really ruined it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob too aggressive. I'd sell that. Most guidance struggles to get it much NW of like marshfield to dighton. Hopefully, just saying what it shows. Wish we could see the ukie at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I’d still weigh Euro >50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. When the GFS is cold.. it pretty much tells you all you need to know. Man, what happened to the Euro.. they really ruined it days and days ago the euro was on this train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. When the GFS is cold.. it pretty much tells you all you need to know. Man, what happened to the Euro.. they really ruined it All They Need to do is move you to the jack, and boom its number 1 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. When the GFS is cold.. it pretty much tells you all you need to know. Man, what happened to the Euro.. they really ruined it Kill a horse > save a horse ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: All They Need to do is move you to the jack, and boom its number 1 again? If Euro was cold and gfs warm I’d agree with it.. when you have every met telling you it’s too warm and aggressive.. guess what ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Hopefully, just saying what it shows. Wish we could see the ukie at 925. The Euro and Ukie have basically the same track so it does have some merit, Whether the upper levels a right or not, That's the question, The trend has been NW with the slp and amped up with more qpf, GFS typically not as good with coastal's, So i wouldn't be surprised to see some correction as its late to the party as well as it usually corrects as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob too aggressive. I'd sell that. Most guidance struggles to get it much NW of like marshfield to dighton. There's a 6C difference between the Euro/GFS by 3am Wed in SE areas. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’d still weigh Euro >50%. Yeah I'd weight it around 70/30. Though sometimes maybe more like 60/40 if it's kind of an outlier. 950mb 0C prob won't stay near PYM but I'm not buying all of RI and into Ray's fanny either. Just seems too overdone given the track and antecedent airmass. I'd want to see a sfc low basically over 128 or 495 to get the warmth that far west in this airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 0c at 925 gets all the way past Framingham This run is great for me. Its probably a bit warm, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The euro is warm, because it’s dry slotting. Precipitation is not helping to keep it more isothermal below 850. So, I don’t think it’s off it’s rocker. If it’s wrong, it’s probably because it’s too dry in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd weight it around 70/30. Though sometimes maybe more like 60/40 if it's kind of an outlier. 950mb 0C prob won't stay near PYM but I'm not buying all of RI and into Ray's fanny either. Just seems too overdone given the track and antecedent airmass. I'd want to see a sfc low basically over 128 or 495 to get the warmth that far west in this airmass. I think se of Boston is problematic.....laid that out well on the my firs call early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 And yes this antecedent Airmass, will definitely play a role. I don’t see this warming up quick or getting dislodged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: The Euro and Ukie have basically the same track so it does have some merit, Whether the upper levels a right or not, That's the question, The trend has been NW with the slp and amped up with more qpf, GFS typically not as good with coastal's, So i wouldn't be surprised to see some correction with it as well as it usually does as we get closer. It(GFS) loves the northern stream. And as has been stated before, this is a big theta-e injection from the southern stream which may warm things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro is warm, because it’s dry slotting. Precipitation is not helping to keep it more isothermal below 850. So, I don’t think it’s off it’s rocker. If it’s wrong, it’s probably because it’s too dry in those areas. Nothing worse than a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Hmm. Edited my post above based on that. The 6hr qpf looked better than that. But not worth over-analyzing at this point... I think there's another 3-6hr after that that continues to hit NH hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'd lock to lock the euro...low level convergence would be in this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Personally, I’ll take the slot if it’s going to be 1” of slop and rain. It’s funny how some toss the euro when the solution starts to get dicey for a lot of people. Still time for this to end up west again. Id weigh the euro more than other guidance... ukie seems similar too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 My guess is Ray down to OR H and even TOL are in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Personally, I’ll take the slot if it’s going to be 1” of slop and rain. It’s funny how some toss the euro when the solution starts to get dicey for a lot of people. Still time for this to end up west again. I agree. It would not shock me if It ticked west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 How is that snow looking on Cape Cod, Jimmy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Nothing worse than a dry slot. 1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I agree. It would not shock me if It ticked west. The other models seem to be at least inching in that direction as well. Can’t have it both ways though. Expect and need a west trend on most events this year and then magically expect an east trend when the west move starts to become problematic. I like ORH NW in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Watch Reggie very closely starting tonight. Once it gets inside of 36 hours it has exceptionally accurate thermals. It's better than the euro in close range on the thermals. So we will see if it tries the same thing as the euro...that would give it more credence. My guess is the final solution ends up a little more tame than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How is that snow looking on Cape Cod, Jimmy? Been a rough year down there. He knows when to fold though, give him that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is Ray down to OR H and even TOL are in good shape. Lol ...from your lips to Humpties ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Been a rough year down there. He knows when to fold though, give him that. Low blow tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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