TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: GFS is actually 3-5 while CMC is 5+ as currently modeled. Eh... I wouldn’t count on that, especially down this way. Maybe I’m wrong, but it looks kind of warm too. and 3-5 isn’t a light event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Eh... I wouldn’t count on that, especially down this way. Maybe I’m wrong, but it looks kind of warm too. and 3-5 isn’t a light event? This is the model thread. I’m correcting your mis-statement. CMC with more coming after 72 has urs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 And Brett, I think 1-3 is light, 3+ is moderate, 6+ is heavy. You’ve been alive for unreal snow times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 A nice 3-6 inch event would be fine, cover the ground for a few days. Besides, whether it is 1-3, 3-6 or 8-12, the torch that follows will melt it regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 adding specifically to the mise en scene of the mental Holiday cinema. I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Ukie is juiced too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is juiced too. We juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 It's really always been about two waves in this week's trough evolution. Some runs earlier on ... two or more days ago, they were melding the two together. In recent cycles the 2nd of the two waves has been minoring out, such that what remains now is the first of the two. I just think that's interesting, because should the Euro come in a bit more robust with the 2nd system ...then the boundary between it and the first of the two may get skewed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is juiced too. She’s coming. I like H5 height trends I’m seeing off the east coast. Def better downstream ridging showing up across guidance. Expectations in check though. The progressive problem won’t go away entirely, but i do expect it to continue to abate. Not anticipating a huge correction here, but I think this is a good spot to be with upside potential for a SECS and lowside potential (higher confidence) for widespread 6” snowfall for majority of eastern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's really always been about two waves in this week's trough evolution. Some runs earlier on ... two or more days ago, they were melding the two together. In recent cycles the 2nd of the two waves has been minoring out, such that what remains now is the first of the two. I just think that's interesting, because should the Euro come in a bit more robust with the 2nd system ...then the boundary between it and the first of the two may get skewed again. Yea noticed the same tip. I have given up on the trailing wave predominating given current guidance (inside day 4) has latched onto wave one, and even the EPS now appears to favor wave one. No doubt this still remains an important piece of uncertainty in the grand scheme of things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 58 minutes ago, weathafella said: This is the model thread. I’m correcting your mis-statement. CMC with more coming after 72 has urs. It’s hardly a mis-statement, just different threshold for what is light moderate etc. Either way, any snow is good snow. Hopefully this keeps trending better and we can talk low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Couple flurries out there now. We partly sunny though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Couple flurries out there now. We partly sunny though. Yeah I can see the scud on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: And Brett, I think 1-3 is light, 3+ is moderate, 6+ is heavy. You’ve been alive for unreal snow times. Young people weren't around for... 1985-1986, 1988-1989, 1990-1992, 1997-1998. Except for November-December 1989 snow was horrible in sne from February 1988-February 1993 with a few exceptions like December 1992 for interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 We often forget how bad 1994-1995 was because it was sandwiched between two prolific winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I was around for the 80s...and 6-10" is moderate and very manageable to me...but everyone is different. That said, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 We snow extended RGEM 20 mm over Mia casa .78 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2018 Author Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We snow extended RGEM That’s a SNE regionwide warning .. except maybe mixing SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 That Pacific system seems significantly weaker on the Euro so far. Perhaps could affect duration of ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 57 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea noticed the same tip. I have given up on the trailing wave predominating given current guidance (inside day 4) has latched onto wave one, and even the EPS now appears to favor wave one. No doubt this still remains an important piece of uncertainty in the grand scheme of things... OH yeah ...barring something rather unusual in the department of data assimilations/sampling nuance ... that 2ndary system idea set sail. While on the subject, ...to sure what other folks' opinion on that is, but, I feel the Euro hiccuped a bit on this one (2nd that is..). I'm not really sure how far to take that impugning ...but, when this thing was day 4 for St Louis ... ~ lat/lon, that should have been inside the proverbial "wheelhouse" for the nation's heartland,... yet, the morphologies in the run in the cycles immediately thereafter ultimately dimmed the potential back here in the east. Those changes reflected that it had less awareness what would ultimately get dumped into that region via transit from Canada. Since I'm talking about transitive arguments here...it may not be fair to blame the Euro for a D5.5 on the EC ...which was "outside" it's wheelhouse? Even though the better resolved/more accurate St Louis scenario would have had to translate eastward. Hm, interesting debate. It's like it could have scored exceptionally well for day 5.5 if it just did more typically better at D4 west of here - sort of like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We snow extended RGEM 20 mm over Mia casa .78 qpf Not to quibble but the max I see on this map is 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro looks like a 3-6 deal. Might be issues SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was around for the 80s...and 6-10" is moderate and very manageable to me...but everyone is different. That said, I'll take it. 12/13/07 was a crippling 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Tries to close off H5 for thursday. Unlikely, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not to quibble but the max I see on this map is 15. conversion mm to inches... 15 mm ~ .60 or so .. i dunno, maybe that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro looks like a 3-6 deal. Might be issues SE MA. I mentioned this earlier... I’m not convinced this isn’t just slop down this way. Temps look somewhat marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: 12/13/07 was a crippling 6-10. I used to think of 6-10 as a huge storm back in the day during our snow drought years. But now I just think of it as moderate to heavy. Either way, it's a warning criteria snowfall for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mentioned this earlier... I’m not convinced this isn’t just slop down this way. Temps look somewhat marginal I wouldn't worry yet. Onshore flow is light. Could easily be some man snow. It gets to 0C at 925 near BOS, but could be he euro a little ampy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: 12/13/07 was a crippling 6-10. And why do you remember it? Anomalous set of circumstances...intensity and timing relative to commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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