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Days and days of snow disco


Damage In Tolland

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know..I feel like it may be more to the gfs idea?  There’s time and I’m not ruling it out....but given everything out there......not sure I buy euro suite.

I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. 

I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now.

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21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’ll take the other side of this. I need a coup after today’s kitchen sink debacle anyway. 

I think 0z Euro is closest piece of guidance right now.

Yeah I’m not ruling it out, but I think the bullish solutions from yesterday may be tough to come by.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Step to the gfs there. Too progressive I think. 

Agreed.

I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. 

Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out.

I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Agreed.

I still think that’s a great look at 120 hr. Obviously need some minor changes but that’s pretty locked for a big storm nearby by euro standards. 

Euro looks more like a blend of the really amped solution from yesterday’s 12z run with today’s 12z GFS run. I think this is a compromise, and still a good spot this far out.

I wouldn’t be as optimistic if the NAO and AO wasn’t forecasted to plunge into “go time”. Both indexes argue we lose the progressive look over the Eastern conus. Hopefully those forecasts materialize; because in my mind this easily has SECS potential with the teleconnections mentioned above.

PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO

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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PNA is collapsing...not all about NAO and AO

We can agree to disagree on this aspect. Through day 3, the PNA ridge is sufficient to open the door for a PV lobe from the arctic, beyond that I want the east coast to work out. If the flow is slowed over the east coast we get a big storm.

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