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Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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1 minute ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Nice for sw wake then...SE wake again getting the screw job. We have 2 inches on ground only because of rates. You can see the lighter rates not far away. Snow will start melting when that happens. Already sounds like it is raining because of water falling off roof and gutters. Still 35.

I would gladly trade with you!  We were supposed to have 1 to 3 inches by now and it is still raining.

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2 minutes ago, ragtop50 said:

I would gladly trade with you!  We were supposed to have 1 to 3 inches by now and it is still raining.

I do feel horrible for you. Believe me. Just don't ever trust anyone on this board when they say "temps will not be a problem" lol...yeah...ok.

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6 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Don't look now but NAM has Eastern NC getting hit as hard or harder as the coastal develops...

namconus_asnow_seus_7.png

Slower and sharper with the trough keeps increasing our chances 

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From the NWS for the Western Piedmont of NC, just now:

... WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT... HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING. PLAN ON DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 74.

 

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

This post did not age well.

If it were 35-37 like the models were showing, then it would have been like that.

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Don't look now but NAM has Eastern NC getting hit as hard or harder as the coastal develops...
namconus_asnow_seus_7.png&key=3cd0b82a6a731bb7fc9fb28f87be1cc50b6c122b21da675f7fb36d35b619a83f

I’m stoked about that. Let’s see what AKQ thinks about that and if they react accordingly and change our WWA to a WSW.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

If it were 35-37 like the models were showing, then it would have been like that.

The only model showing that was the HRRR which is notorious for being too warm and is terrible with temps, especially in the long range of the model. The 3km NAM and RGEM had the right idea with temps.

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

The only model showing that was the HRRR which is notorious for being too warm and is terrible with temps, especially in the long range of the model. The 3km NAM and RGEM had the right idea with temps.

Dude...it is 35 to 37 for many...wake up...many have not seen a drop of snow. They are still under WSW

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4 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


I’m stoked about that. Let’s see what AKQ thinks about that and if they react accordingly and change our WWA to a WSW.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Would have liked to have seen the 3k back it up but it really didn' at all.

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Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Dude...it is 35 to 37 for many...wake up...many have not seen a drop of snow. They are still under WSW

I'm well aware of what's going on and things are going according to plan. RGEM had a sharp cutoff and low ratios across Wake county, specifically the SE part where you live. It had the highest totals of 4+ to the west which is where they are. It's going exactly as modeled when you follow the one that has led the way with this storm, the RGEM.

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

Would have liked to have seen the 3k back it up but it really didn' at all.

Key is what RGEM shows as it has led the way... NAM is one step behind it on this storm.

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Looks like things are looking up for the coastal low for e nc.. models keep trending wetter and further west with the precip from the coastal should be a fun night for us here in the east

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Probably already discussed, but we have ourselves a CLOSED 500MB LOW. That's helping enhance that western edge precip and should slow the entire system down I'd think.

500mb 303pm.png

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1 minute ago, Jonathan said:

Probably already discussed, but we have ourselves a CLOSED 500MB LOW. That's helping enhance that western edge precip and should slow the entire system down I'd think.

500mb 303pm.png

correct. comma head might form right over central NC as it pulls east

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Just now, tramadoc said:

RGEM still puts me into WSW criteria for AKQ CWA.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Do you expect them to issue WSW?

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1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

correct. comma head might form right over central NC as it pulls east

If comma head forms, will it finally drop our temps? If it had only been below freezing I would easily have 5 to 6 inches by now.

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Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said:

If comma head forms, will it finally drop our temps? If it had only been below freezing I would easily have 5 to 6 inches by now.

Temps will drop as the 925mb low slides east. It's sitting just to your south hence the warmer boundary layer temps there. Was very well modeled....

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The NAM posted above is a thing of beauty but at this point in the storm is it something to take seriously or is the HRRR really the most reliable now?

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Anyone else notice that the wet snow and lack of wind has limited accumulations under tree canopies?  Certain sections of my street are barely covered due to the snow having trouble making it through the large oak branches. 

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1 minute ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

If comma head forms, will it finally drop our temps? If it had only been below freezing I would easily have 5 to 6 inches by now.

it should. comma head= heavy rates. but the closed ULL should allow the system to slow down so snow should continue into the evening. your temps should really drop by then and you could still pick up a quick 2-3 inches if you get under a good band

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