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Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Looking at the last 30 minutes of radar, I think the main axis of precip will be to our east/northeast by that point.

 the system is actually going to slow down even more we'll be under the main axis of precip for a while longer. and there's gonna be a little more redevelopment to our west as the energy transfers to the coast

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48 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Glad you’re finally getting the goods man

Thanks man. It's hard to wait!

45 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

are you in west or south raleigh? per radar that band is moving NE looks like

SE Wake between Garner and Fuquay.

44 minutes ago, NCSU_Pi said:

It seems like all the model soundings for our area showed temps well below freezing all the way up the air column, except right at the surface, for the duration of the event. Do you think they missed on the upper air temps, or do I have a layman's misunderstanding of the thermodynamics at play?

No, I think they were correct.  The surface temps are causing the main issue.  Plus, the whole system was delayed by a few hours.

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Happy Snow Day, everyone!  

We have 3" here in NE Charlotte (just beyond the Cabarrus County line), and although we are also not under any radar echos currently, it is still lightly snowing.  Absolutely beautiful! :snowwindow:

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1 minute ago, wake4est said:

hrrr still showing 6+ more for sw wake

Yep.  But looking at the radar loop, the heaviest returns look to only last another couple of hours before scooting northeast.  Unless there is regeneration upstream, I don't know how that's going to pan out.  Anybody see it differently?

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1 minute ago, tramadoc said:

How reliable are the HRRR and RAP?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Short term inside the 8 hour mark the HRRR is fairly good with depicting banding and heaviest qpf. Rap is okay but not great IMO.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep.  But looking at the radar loop, the heaviest returns look to only last another couple of hours before scooting northeast.  Unless there is regeneration upstream, I don't know how that's going to pan out.  Anybody see it differently?

The HRRR shows current rates for another two hours, then it lightens up a little bit. Presumably as the ULL moves in and takes on a neutral tilt, that'll keep the precip flow.

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

The HRRR shows current rates for another two hours, then it lightens up a little bit. Presumably as the ULL moves in and takes on a neutral tilt, that'll keep the precip flow.

Thanks.  That looks about right, based on eyeballing the radar.  Hopefully, the ULL pans out (along with getting into the 20s).

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2 minutes ago, btownheel said:

deform band out west is getting organized in a hurry.  Would that be pushing east far enough to get over the Piedmonet this evening as a back end burst?

well thats what the hrrr appears to show

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14 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

The HRRR shows current rates for another two hours, then it lightens up a little bit. Presumably as the ULL moves in and takes on a neutral tilt, that'll keep the precip flow.

Man that back edge is coming in quick!  Best rates of the day here.  Finally accumulating on the driveway a bit.  I do not see much redevelopment upstream.  Looks like about an hour left.

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9 minutes ago, Norwegian Cyclone said:

Mid-storm snow report map from NWS Raleigh...the 5.8" report on the Orange/Chatham line isn't me, but I'm close to it. We've probably added another inch or so since then. 

 

DTw6sCNXcAAXwRG.jpg

ouch. what happened to the 8-10" totals? my old house got 2.1" i would have been PISSED.

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Just now, WakeCountyWX said:

 

Nice for sw wake then...SE wake again getting the screw job. We have 2 inches on ground only because of rates. You can see the lighter rates not far away. Snow will start melting when that happens. Already sounds like it is raining because of water falling off roof and gutters. Still 35.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Man that back edge is coming in quick!  Best rates of the day here.  Finally accumulating on the driveway a bit.  I do not see much redevelopment upstream.  Looks like about an hour left.

Just went through that "back edge" near Winston-Salem. Incredible rates, mixture of the small flakes and large flakes - beautiful. The bonus - now I'm in the area where the radar shows no returns, but it is still snowing lightly. And the deformation band to my west is bearing down upon me. I would expect much more fun for all of you in the Raleigh area!

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