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Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

snku_acc.us_ma.png

This one scares me a bit for SE Wake. Thats a sharp gradient right on the Wake JoCo line. Just as I was feeling this was a sure thing, the dreaded gradient creeps in...

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35 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Ive never seen a build up of air this sharp. Once it spills over mountains its game time.5a5e63e1ceed8_Screenshot(14).thumb.png.db3f774bc7c82c8bef2d77d82951d6b2.png

Perfect visual. Unfortunately, I think that is what is really going to be a limiting factor for the NEGA/Upstate area, cold always, ALWAYS takes longer than forecast to make it over the mtns, and with our limited precip problems, being a fast mover, and how worm we got today, it is going to be a struggle. Looks like a lot of our early precip will be rain and that will further hinder our situation. I really hope I'm wrong, and Lookout and Burrel and others are much better at this than me, but I just feel like I have seen this too many times and I think it will be a struggle anywhere west of Spartanburg in the upstate, and outside of elevation. 

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For our Georgia friends...

NWS AtlantaVerified account @NWSAtlanta 43m43 minutes ago

 
 

Here is the projected timing of the rain/snow line into north/central GA this evening into the early morning hours. The precipitation intensity may be fairly light to start with a better surge in moisture overnight, especially from LaGrange northeast to Athens. #gawxDTsJ24HX0AAXMQV.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Perfect visual. Unfortunately, I think that is what is really going to be a limiting factor for the NEGA/Upstate area, cold always, ALWAYS takes longer than forecast to make it over the mtns, and with our limited precip problems, being a fast mover, and how worm we got today, it is going to be a struggle. Looks like a lot of our early precip will be rain and that will further hinder our situation. I really hope I'm wrong, and Lookout and Burrel and others are much better at this than me, but I just feel like I have seen this too many times and I think it will be a struggle anywhere west of Spartanburg in the upstate, and outside of elevation. 

Not your average cold behind the mountains though. And looks as if front comes through hours before precip! I'm hopeful on this one!

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48 minutes ago, Lookout said:

hrrr keeps looking better. now has a band of  0.20 to 0.30 amounts cutting right across the athens area. ...even some  amounts near 0.40  now for parts of the northern upstate. 

qpf_acc.us_se.png

Lookout I noticed as well the short term models seem to be picking up on this as well better then the operational models. In december's storm our area in northern pickens county was forecasted to get very little and we ended up with just over 4 inches. The mountains just above us in Cashiers & Toxaway got crushed with 12-18 inches. The short term models picked up on the quicker changeover and increase in precip amount where the operationals played catch up. Are they just calculated better to handle local terrain and lee side down sloping impacts?

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7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That gradient on the wake/Joco line is the 3/2 gradient.    Relax.  

Looking at the 12z vs 18z, the 18z is definitely better for Wake.  Totals continue to increase.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Burrel, don't you dare say that to me right now!

DONT YOU PUT THAT EVIL ON HIM, RICKY BOBBY. 

RGEM is showing 13:1 or better ratios for the duration for me.

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56 minutes ago, griteater said:

I like your area and @Eric area for this one

With all the time and effort you put into model analysis and PBP, I always root for you to cash in.  It worked out very well for you last winter!  Thank you for all you contribute to the board. Hopefully everyone cashes in this go-around.

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Don't shoot me for posting this, but you can get your old school 1980's weather channel local forecast here at this site.  Just plug in your city - http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=raleigh%2C+nc

To make it truly 1980's old school TWC, you need to have the Yellowjackets' "And You Know That" playing in the background.

 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not your average cold behind the mountains though. And looks as if front comes through hours before precip! I'm hopeful on this one!

Mack we know how this usually plays out but I am also hopeful. This front came all the way from Siberia. That has to mean something?

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not your average cold behind the mountains though. And looks as if front comes through hours before precip! I'm hopeful on this one!

Dude...you will be GTG. Here is the WB Calc. Go to a WXUnderground station and run the #'s. You will wetbulb and the temps will crash.

 

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