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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Columbia just put out Winter Storm Warnings for it's northern counties. Has upwards of 2". What is the criteria for Winter Storms? I thought it was 3" or greater.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Columbia SC
238 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.A strong upper trough and associated arctic cold front will
approach and cross the region Wednesday. Increasing moisture along
the front will interact with cooling temperatures and result in a
period of rain and mixed precipitation overnight, with a
transition over to all snow during the morning hours Wednesday.

SCZ015-016-170800-
/O.UPG.KCAE.WW.Y.0002.180117T0900Z-180117T1900Z/
/O.NEW.KCAE.WS.W.0002.180117T0700Z-180117T2200Z/
Lancaster-Chesterfield-
Including the cities of Lancaster, Elgin, Lancaster Mill, Cheraw,
and Pageland
238 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Total snow
  accumulations of up to two inches are expected.

* WHERE...Lancaster and Chesterfield Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for snow accumulating on
  roadways, especially bridges and overpasses, which could create
  hazardous travel conditions. Any lingering snow or wet roads
  could refreeze by late afternoon into evening as temperatures
  quickly fall back below freezing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

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26 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Serious question: how reliable is the RAP at those longer leads? It has .3 qpf in the Triad by 10am with several more hours of snow to go. 

It did fairly well here in Eastern NC during the coastal bomb, once inside about 12-15 hours but at the 15-21 hour lead it wasn't that great.

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1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

Could that be accurate with thermals? I've seen no other hints of CLT or really anywhere close as rain during the main band moves through. Would be sad to waste such good rates.

pretty sure the call all along has been charlotte starts out as rain or rain/snow mix and then transitions somewhat quickly to all snow

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1 minute ago, wake4est said:

WSWarning for RDU for 2-4 with 5" locally

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.An Arctic cold front will approach from the west this evening,
then cross central NC overnight through Wednesday morning. The
arrival of the much colder air mass will interact with available
moisture to cause a swath of snow across much of central NC. The
precipitation may end as light freezing rain or freezing drizzle
Wednesday afternoon.

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-085-086-088-171045-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0003.180117T0400Z-180118T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0002.180117T0900Z-180118T0200Z/
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney,
Henderson, Norlina, Wise, Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston,
Roanoke Rapids, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, Franklinton,
Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, Spring Hope,
Rocky Mount, Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma,
Benson, Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Dunn, Anderson Creek,
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Laurel Hill,
Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, Rockfish,
Silver City, Fayetteville, and Fort Bragg
250 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, possibly as early as the morning commute. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher
  amounts up to 5 inches possible.

* WHERE...The eastern Piedmont, the Sandhills and most of the
  coastal plain of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times, especially between 8 AM and 1 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be
found online at DriveNC.gov.
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1 minute ago, Randomgirl said:

Lurker with a question... What would reasonably cause a hole like this to form? Climo? Just seems weird for this to set up in this area. Of course i'm almost dead center of it by being in anderson co. 

Warm bubble. Several high res models are showing a weak warm bubble of air in this area that could waste much of the precip as rain or a mix before changing over. It has happened in quite a few storms and very well could with this setup too.

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12km NAM just went BOOM!!! for the western Upstate and NE/E Georgia!!  It's much quicker with cooling the warm bubble area down to freezing as well... has me hitting 32 by 3am.

 

Also, score one for the Rgem... it was showing this 48 hrs out and the NAM models didn't have a clue.

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WSW for areas west of Raleigh, including Durham and Chapel Hill worded a little differently.

 

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, especially during the morning commute on Wednesday.
  Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...The western and southern Piedmont of central North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times, especially between 3 AM and 8 AM.
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