Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,394
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

3K Nam beefed up totals quite a bit from 6z.  Good trend for sure, as we close in.  This is 10:1:

nam3km_asnow_seus_41.thumb.png.f7e93191c0b2705055460b4ed0e1a52c.png

The hole over NE GA just makes me laugh every time 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Latest Hrrr Has Precip developing further west than NAM.

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png

Good. We need that line to redevelop as soon as it crosses the Applachians. Not much room for error for us upstate folks 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seems like this is still getting downplayed by the media. Even GSP only calling for up to an inch in the CLT metro and surrounding areas. 2-3 with cold ground temps would make the morning commute borderline impossible for most.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

Seems like this is still getting downplayed by the media. Even GSP only calling for up to an inch in the CLT metro and surrounding areas. 2-3 with cold ground temps would make the morning commute borderline impossible for most.

They'll play catch-up later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The hole over NE GA just makes me laugh every time 

:gun_bandana::gun_bandana:

northeast ga is legit one of the hardest places east of the rockies to get snow if there is no cad. 

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like widespread 3 to 6 inches around the Memphis area. 12km NAM had a dusting to 2 inches in this area on all of it's runs up to within 12 hours of the event  starting. The earliest 12km NAM run to catch the snow totals in Memphis was 9 hours prior to the event starting for those guys.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the main reason that a lot of the mets are being conservative is concern over accumulations.  Slushier snow at first before transitioning to higher ratios later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

FYI, just form anecdotal evidence. I have noticed that in these type setups, precip usually over performs for the tiny warm bubble behind the mountains from lookouts house up to Oconee county. I contribute this over-performing do to the slight amount of lift created when the cold air from the northwest is lifted over this dome of warmer air. It usually doesn't help us at all though b/c it's typical raining in these set ups while everyone else is cold enough for snow. 

If we can manage to be cold enough for snow I expect there to be some qpf there for us in this "no man's land area".

  I would  watch out for some lingering flurries/light snow behind the main band too with an area of converging winds.  It probably would only amount to some flurries at most but One of my favorite snows ever happened many years ago due to something similar. (picked up nearly 4 inches of totally unexpected snow)   In that case, it was only a small area that got enhanced totals...generally east of athens and the upper savannah river valley iirc...this was a long time ago). Interestingly, the temp pattern is very similar..it was very cold in west ga...low to mid teens...and 10 to 15 degrees warmer here..much like tomorrow.  You can see a hint of it on some of the models with only very light precip amounts or lingering clouds (nam for example) ....and they vary from model to model where it is. 

latest hrrrx is showing actual snow. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Looks like widespread 3 to 6 inches around the Memphis area. 12km NAM had a dusting to 2 inches in this area on all of it's runs up to within 12 hours of the event  starting. The earliest 12km NAM run to catch the snow totals in Memphis was 9 hours prior to the event starting for those guys.

Interesting to see if that trend continues even post-App crossing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think the main reason that a lot of the mets are being conservative is concern over accumulations.  Slushier snow at first before transitioning to higher ratios later.

If we get moderate to heavy snow, I'm not worried about accumulations one bit.  And it won't take long for the roads to get messy either.  I think Brick hit it on the head earlier.  The playbook for SE snowstorms is to always go conservative up until it becomes crystal clear that it is going to snow and QPF becomes fairly well understood for the event.  This is usually not more than 8-12 hours before the event.  That's when they start beefing up totals in earnest, if it's going to happen.  This has happened since I was a child and I am 43.  Gasp.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Didn’t it just happen early December 2017?

No, I think you may be thinking about the report in December that said all 50 states had already received snowfall this winter. But I don't think there was snow on the ground in all 50 states at the same time. 

Feb 12th, 2010 was the last time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

HRRX has it snowing here 13-15 hrs... wish that was right.

I have noticed that all HRRRRRRR versions, HRRA - HRRZ, overstate the duration of precipitation by at least 25% at least 90% of the time.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

FYI, just form anecdotal evidence. I have noticed that in these type setups, precip usually over performs for the tiny warm bubble behind the mountains from lookouts house up to Oconee county. I contribute this over-performing do to the slight amount of lift created when the cold air from the northwest is lifted over this dome of warmer air. It usually doesn't help us at all though b/c it's typical raining in these set ups while everyone else is cold enough for snow. 

If we can manage to be cold enough for snow I expect there to be some qpf there for us in this "no man's land area".

this is excellent information that I can tell comes from experience. Typically, these clipper type systems has all their energy drained by the Apps. This one is different, in that there is some gulf moisture being tapped. So this that is going on in MS and AL is a tremendous teaser to those of us in GA and SC. If history is a good indicator....you are spot on.  Counties like Franklin, Hart, Oconee, Pickens, Upper GSP, Cherokee get hosed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

If we get moderate to heavy snow, I'm not worried about accumulations one bit.  And it won't take long for the roads to get messy either.  I think Brick hit it on the head earlier.  The playbook for SE snowstorms is to always go conservative up until it becomes crystal clear that it is going to snow and QPF becomes fairly well understood for the event.  This is usually not more than 8-12 hours before the event.  That's when they start beefing up totals in earnest, if it's going to happen.  This has happened since I was a child and I am 43.  Gasp.

In theory, the forecaster's number of busts on the high side should equal the number of busts on the low side....but the pain received by a forecaster is higher for busting on the high side

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, griteater said:

In theory, the forecaster's number of busts on the high side should equal the number of busts on the low side....but the pain received by a forecaster is higher for busting on the high side

Yep, very true.  What most people don't realize is that a couple tenths of precip makes a lot of difference in accums, not that they know how to measure it anyway.  Sticking a ruler deep into a mulch bed or thicket doesn't yield as much snow depth as you think!

And you never hear any complaints that it only rained .3" when we were promised .6" (unless Shetley is posting).

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brad Panovich posted another vlog about an hour ago and he hasn't budged.  Says not one thing has changed with the storm and he is still predicting 0-1 inch for most of the state with some 2 inch totals around raleigh and east

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep, very true.  What most people don't realize is that a couple tenths of precip makes a lot of difference in accums, not that they know how to measure it anyway.  Sticking a ruler deep into a mulch bed or thicket doesn't yield as much snow depth as you think!

And you never hear any complaints that it only rained .3" when we were promised .6".

Sounds as if you know some stuff sir.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

sort of overlooked this but need to watch out for areas around columbus and macon..nam and rgem are showing some good totals there. wondering if we couldn't actually see some type of band of heavier snow setup from columbus to athens into the upstate. 

also..rgem is showing that area of light snow/flurries for the upstate/upper savannah river valley too. behind the main behind tomorrow afternoon too. oconee county in sc the big winner with that one on the rgem. 

 

snku_acc.us_se.png

 

qpf_006h.us_se.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

Sounds as if you know some stuff sir.

I have learned over the years how NOT to measure snow.  Live in Wake Co.!

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

sort of overlooked this but need to watch out for areas around columbus and macon..nam and rgem are showing some good totals there. wondering if we couldn't actually see some type of band of heavier snow setup from columbus to athens into the upstate. 

 

snku_acc.us_se.png

qpf_acc.us_se.png

Yeah, here in Macon, I have friends to my north in Atlanta and friends to my south in Valdosta who have been kidding me about being skunked so, I need to score here.  Precip steadily being upped in the models for west-central Georgia, so we may get more than the 1/2 inch I promised my family this morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lookout - checkout how the RGEM keeps light precip going in the upstate after the band rolls through like you mentioned earlier - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

I made a post somewhat related to this last night - I believe that frontogenesis plays a roll there as the cold air approaches from the NW and runs into the relative warm bubble over the Upper Savannah River Valley...which packs the isotherms (frontogenesis aiding lift), and it can be slow to breakdown - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50810-potential-117-118-threat/?do=findComment&comment=4781339

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems depending on where/who you read the core axis of the most precip (accumulation) can vary from southern central Va to northeast NC piedmont to north of Charlotte up to Greensboro.  Odd this.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×