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Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Look at Frazdaddy jackpotting again.  Dude is a snow magnet!

Man I'm 2.5 days out. That's like betting on an inside straight. If it does come on out. Got new tires for the side by side today.

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3 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

Current Blacksburg snowfall map is laughable. They have dry slot Wilkesboro to winston stretching north-east of Mount Airy into southern VA. 

Not laughable at all. Lot of models showing something similar...

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Current Blacksburg snowfall map is laughable. They have dry slot Wilkesboro to winston stretching north-east of Mount Airy into southern VA. 
As southernskimmer said above, I too have seen similar setups like this blank the piedmont, and get back together further east. Hope the slot does not happen, since this is not the typical setup I have seen us blanked on before.

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Rgem is much better looking for Northeast GA and the upstate. It does waste a few hours of precip as rain in the upstate though, I'm sure it will be spot on in that regard.

I_nw_EST_2018011512_048.png

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Found the Feb 2013 event I was thinking of. This is what it looked like at 5h on the RAP just before the event vs. NAM. That one dropped around 3 - 4 inches in places in around 2 - 3 hours. We actually had heavy snow warnings during it. 

<img>tutWLra.gif

 

zebkUXc.png

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2 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

God I hate living in GA sometimes- because of the downslope we will get less than basically everybody from TX to VA- grrrrrrr

 

Yeah, but NW GA into ATL doesn't get nearly as much downslope compared to Gainesville/Athens and areas directly in the lee of the apps.

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I remember that one. It started snowing like crazy out of no where and lasted about 3 hours. Really cool.

10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Found the Feb 2013 event I was thinking of. This is what it looked like at 5h on the RAP just before the event vs. NAM. That one dropped around 3 - 4 inches in places in around 2 - 3 hours. We actually had heavy snow warnings during it. 

<img>tutWLra.gif

 

zebkUXc.png

 

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29 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Not laughable at all. Lot of models showing something similar...

It's not the way to go, I would err on the side of caution. The NWS is given the WPC probabilities as a aid. In fact, they have the highest odds of 4" or more for Yadkin/Surry/Forsyth where Blacksburg is going with nothing. Blacksburg is good, but bold. I'm sure their afternoon team will raise the totals because I know someone who is going in today.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

12z Nam and 12z ICON are both winter storm warnings triad. Canadian looks good as well. Have to wait and see accum maps. 

Interesting to watch from afar how dynamic this storm gets for you guys. If that vort stays strong could get forcing and again everything could just dump intensely for a few hours even get some thundersnow in it. 

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Latest WPC Probabilistic guidance has Wake in the 50% range of 1" or more.  I think that is fair for now.  I noticed Wilmoth over at WRAL just posted a graphic that looks pretty much the same on facebook.  Seems they are going with WPC.

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Just now, burgertime said:

Interesting to watch from afar how dynamic this storm gets for you guys. If that vort stays strong could get forcing and again everything could just dump intensely for a few hours even get some thundersnow in it. 

Fingers crossed. Good trends today with the digging and trough getting neutral enough to amp all the energy up. You ever moving back to this side of the pond?

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hopefully the icon has a warm bias with BL temps?

I think it's likely too amped? Remember with the coastal crusher it was throwing heavy precip well inland until game time. Maybe it doesn't handle coastal reinforcement well

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Fingers crossed. Good trends today with the digging and trough getting neutral enough to amp all the energy up. You ever moving back to this side of the pond?

Yea man, if I were back home I'd be liking this setup for a good surprise. No plans at the moment but am working on something that could put me back in the US. Still too early to know. 

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