Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

[wncsnow]

EPS looks pretty good and agrees with the OP. Northern NC and VA look best but a lot of NC in the 1 to 2 inch range

[snowlover91]

RGEM ensembles look good at hour 72. 

[BornAgain13]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

EPS looks pretty good and agrees with the OP. Northern NC and VA look best but a lot of NC in the 1 to 2 inch range

Kinda middle situation here... Hard to discount the Support with Euro and EPS, but also can't discount the GFS and CMC.

[tramadoc]

Just looking at the euro Ensembles, if anything this will be mainly a nuisance eveent for ENC if anything.

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Just looking at the euro Ensembles, if anything this will be mainly a nuisance eveent for ENC if anything.

That's just one models output. There are other models showing more than a nuisance event 

[tramadoc]

That's just one models output. There are other models showing more than a nuisance event 

Not a lot of moisture to work with.

[SnowGoose69]

NAM continues to look more like the Euro across AL GA and WRN SC with that snow band.  

[MillerA]

Gsp disco

 

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/... 
as of 250 PM EST sunday: model uncertainty rears its ugly head again 
for the 12z cycle. The GFS has gone much weaker with the upper 
system driving the weather system for the middle of the week. This 
results in a drier forecast. The European model (ecmwf) retains its stronger and 
wetter forecast. The Canadian favors the GFS although slightly 
stronger and wetter while the NAM favors the European model (ecmwf). The sref is a mix 
of weak and wet while the gefs mean favors the operational GFS. This 
keeps the forecast uncertainty relatively high. However, our 
forecast continues lean toward the European model (ecmwf)/NAM Camp given the better 
run to run consistency of the ecwmf. That said, upper lows are 
notoriously tricky to forecast correctly. In addition, snow 
forecasts when the cold air is not already in place with a strong 
damming high are also problematic. Therefore, have capped pops in 
the good chance range where precip chances are higher. 

The overall pattern weather pattern remains the same. An upper low 
over the Great Lakes opens up and moves east as a strong short wave 
rotates around the low and digs a deep trough and potentially closed 
low across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys which moves east over or near our 
forecast area. The associated cold front moves east into the 
mountains Tuesday. As the front moves out of the mountains, a wave 
of low pressure forms in the Lee with an inverted trough developing. 
Precip moves into the mountains Tuesday with cold air filtering in 
behind the front. This will keep the precip mostly snow but mixing 
with rain in the valleys. The precip spreads out of the mountains 
and across the area Tuesday night. The precip remains snow across 
the mountains with rain changing to snow elsewhere as the cold air 
continues to spread in. The precip moves east through the morning 
Wednesday. However, low level instability develops along and east of 
the I-77 corridor. This will allow convective snow showers to 
develop before the precip moves east of the area. The best precip 
chances will be over the NC mountains and I-77 corridor. The western 
upstate and NE Georgia will see some snow showers, but any accumulations 
look to be a dusting at best. Using a guidance blend for quantitative precipitation forecast and 
snow amounts yields up to 2 inches across the higher elevations of 
the NC mountains and up to an inch across the I-40 and I-77 
corridors. The timing of the snow showers has the potential to 
impact the morning commute on Wednesday. Again, this is a highly 
uncertain forecast and many things have to come together properly 
for this to develop. 

[DopplerWx]

nam much improved ad looks good for clt. an inch or so maybe? very euro like.

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

nam much improved ad looks good for clt. an inch or so maybe?

How about RDU area

[Solak]

RAH AFD - minor change from the AM disco..

Current best guess for snowfall amounts are an inch or 
two from the Triangle north and west into the Triad region, with 
less than an inch south and east of the Triangle. There may not be 
any snow accumulation in the sandhills. These amounts are low 
confidence at this time and will likely change as model guidance 
continues to evolve. 

[DopplerWx]

nam at 66. brief but decent snow showers.got to love having the euro and nam in our corner as opposed to the gfs on an island.

[mackerel_sky]

Awesome! Dusting at best for upstate, per GSP disco

[CaryWx]

Has this thing slowed down?  Looks like by 7am ET Weds morning still not to Raleigh.

[downeastnc]

No coastal low pops on the 18Z NAM that wont help snow totals in central and eastern NC....also never closes off.....

[tramadoc]

RAH AFD - minor change from the AM disco..

Current best guess for snowfall amounts are an inch or two from the Triangle north and west into the Triad region, with less than an inch south and east of the Triangle. There may not be any snow accumulation in the sandhills. These amounts are low confidence at this time and will likely change as model guidance continues to evolve. 

AKQ is more bullish WRT possibility of higher amounts, but mainly 2-3".

MHX is going with a mix with possible changeover on the backside.

[CaryWx]

The 12z gfs didn't have either or way too late right? 

[tarheelwx]

Hi Res NAM is super dry at 60 hours.  Not what I'd like to see.

TW

[downeastnc]

6 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

AKQ is more bullish WRT possibility of higher amounts, but mainly 2-3".

MHX is going with a mix with possible changeover on the backside.

Timing is slowing down so thats bad for us as well as it lets us get well into the day Wed before clouds and precip start ......we need it to speed up or slow down more....starting in late morning/earlyafternoon is no good.

[Solak]

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 14m14 minutes ago

 

 

Here's the latest: Potential for some snow mid-week over central NC, but it's far from certain. Lots of differences among models regarding amounts and how much cold air there will be. Check back with http://weather.gov/raleigh  over the next couple of days for updates. #ncwx

[Cold Rain]

One of the hardest things to do weather-wise, it seems, is to get a precip max over the Raleigh area when temperatures generally support snow.

[ragtop50]

Precip looks like it may have expanded just a bit further south at 72hrs in central and eastern NC on the 18Z GFS

[WakeCountyWX]

 

[NCSNOW]

12z Euro and 18z nam paint 2-3 inch deal in the ole Back yard. I'll take it. Annual average Jan thaw comes in on schedule next Sunday. After that we get one more shot at a window of opportunity if we're lucky. Heading down the back side now fellas (last 45 of met winter). I think all of us would agree we've been very fortunate to escape the la Nina pre season doom and gloom. This upcoming event isn't gonna turnout as a historical storm by no means. Hopefully it can get the upstate to RDU some releif in the snowfall dept. Then it's pattern recognition time, to try and see if we can maybe luck out and get a late winter, wet thumping paste bomb. My hunch is we get another repeat like we've been having, cold press and northern stream dominate opportunity.  Only this time the press works out better for interior sectons as opposed to the coastal areas. Time will tell. All depends on if the PV can avoid getting wound up tight over the poles. 

[FallsLake]

34 minutes ago, WakeCountyWX said:

 

I agree. It looks like the GFS is trying tp play catch up. But still looking at the 18z GFS, it is better that the previous run. It would have most precip fall from RDU north and eastward; with 1" at RDU to 2" at Roanoke Rapids.   

[Tony Sisk]

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

That's just one models output. There are other models showing more than a nuisance event 

There just isn't any moisture to work with. Unfortunately  

[ajr]

No real help from CIPS analogs unfortunately

[FallsLake]

18z GEFS is better, but it basically follows the operational  depiction. Has the highest QPF between RDU and Roanoke Rapids; .15 or higher. The .05 line runs from ~ E. Charlotte to Winston-Salem. Not good, but again better than the last run. We still have more runs coming up... 

[Cold Rain]

22 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z GEFS is better, but it basically follows the operational  depiction. Has the highest QPF between RDU and Roanoke Rapids; .15 or higher. The .05 line runs from ~ E. Charlotte to Winston-Salem. Not good, but again better than the last run. We still have more runs coming up... 

The runs.  You said it!

[Red1976Red]

WPC looks interesting and close to my thoughts so far, I do expect more changes closer to the event:

40-50% chance 1" snow or greater from Wilkesboro to Asheboro and points north-east. mountains included. (Winter Weather Advisory)

Cut off lines near Greenville, SC, Charlotte,NC and Raleigh,NC as usual with every storm. (Edge of advisory/special weather statement)

Less moisture central/southern foothills into south-west NC including Asheville. (special weather statement, advisory bordering northern foothills and in the higher elevations)

4" or more warning criteria reserved for the mountains, western Wilkes and just north of Surry into Virginia. (Winter Storm Warning Chances, Slim albeit possible), maybe some low odds near Greensboro too as criteria is lower for that NWS