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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

don't worry. the latest HRRR sets up the best band right over Wake for 5-6 hours of rates at 1 inch or greater per hour.  

Look at radar. Its crashing SE now

I know haha after the last snow hole debacle I’m conditioned to expect the worst!

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RAH increasing totals.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
923 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance and associated arctic cold front
will move through our region today. This will be followed bitter
cold arctic high pressure tonight into Friday morning. A warm-up
will begin Friday and extend into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 923 AM Wednesday...

...Winter Storm Warning for most of Central NC through 900 PM
tonight...
...Winter Weather Advisory for the SE Coastal Plain (Wayne and
Sampson through 900 PM...

Review of some of the latest 06z to 12z model guidance is coming
into collaboration(always a good thing as it increases confidence)
with what we are seeing in satellite data of cooling cloud tops east
of the mountains; a deeper more wrapped up mid/upper level system
along with additional supportive evidence in observational/boots on
the ground data of 2 inches already on the ground in the Triad and
impressive-slowing moving snow band over the Piedmont, in an axis
just east of the Triad and just west of the Triangle, extending from
Troy to Siler City to Hillsborough to Roxboro/Oxford, that will
likely produce snowfall rates locally up to 1 inch per hour.
And let`s not overlook the deep moist cold snow sounding at GSO. All
of which will supportive of wetter-snowier/slower/more robust
system, with great set-up for CSI mesoscale banding across central
NC Piedmont as suggestive by the 06z later this morning between 15
to 21z. This band will move slowly east throughout the remainder of
the morning and afternoon hours, eventually shifting east and out of
the area by the early evening. Given all the supporting evidence,
will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8
inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches
across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2
across the far SE counties.

Although slower than previous forecasts, due to the deeper more
wrapped system, once precip develops, temps will cool into the 20s.
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NWS to the rescue to calm your fears

 

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 923 AM Wednesday...

...Winter Storm Warning for most of Central NC through 900 PM
tonight...
...Winter Weather Advisory for the SE Coastal Plain (Wayne and
Sampson through 900 PM...

Review of some of the latest 06z to 12z model guidance is coming
into collaboration(always a good thing as it increases confidence)
with what we are seeing in satellite data of cooling cloud tops east
of the mountains; a deeper more wrapped up mid/upper level system
along with additional supportive evidence in observational/boots on
the ground data of 2 inches already on the ground in the Triad and
impressive-slowing moving snow band over the Piedmont, in an axis
just east of the Triad and just west of the Triangle, extending from
Troy to Siler City to Hillsborough to Roxboro/Oxford, that will
likely produce snowfall rates locally up to 1 inch per hour.
And let`s not overlook the deep moist cold snow sounding at GSO. All
of which will supportive of wetter-snowier/slower/more robust
system, with great set-up for CSI mesoscale banding across central
NC Piedmont as suggestive by the 06z later this morning between 15
to 21z. This band will move slowly east throughout the remainder of
the morning and afternoon hours, eventually shifting east and out of
the area by the early evening. Given all the supporting evidence,
will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8
inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches
across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2
across the far SE counties.

Although slower than previous forecasts, due to the deeper more
wrapped system, once precip develops, temps will cool into the 20s.
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
920 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018

NCZ010-025-026-040-041-076-171545-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Warren NC-
920 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018

..Accumulating Snow Will Spread East and Quickly Become Heavy across
EASTERN CHATHAM...DURHAM...WAKE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES Through 1100
AM EST...

At 920 AM EST, Doppler radar was indicating a band of accumulating
snow moving east into eastern Chatham, Durham and Wake Counties.
Steady accumulating snow has already begun in Durham and Pittsboro.
The leading edge of snow has reached the RDU Airport, Sanford and
Henderson. The snow will begin in downtown Raleigh by around 930 am
as well as Louisburg and Wendell by around 10 am.

The band will move very slowly resulting in a period of rapidly
accumulating snow by late morning with 1 inch per hour snow
accumulations likely. Snow is expected to continue to fall into the
late afternoon hours.

The heavy snow will result in rapid snow accumulations, poor
visibility and deteriorating travel conditions.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Pittsboro, Louisburg, Wake Forest, Garner,
Fuquay-Varina, Zebulon and Franklinton.

 

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2 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

Brad panovich just put out another video.  Said this is only just beginning for the charlotte area and showed a model where its supposed to snow until 5-6 PM.  Somehow hes still only calling for 2-4 inches with isolated areas of 5-6.

There’s already 2” in concord. Keeps up like this it’ll be more than 6” for sure

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7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

fat flakes ripping, hrrr shows redevelopment and a comma head look this aft in the upstate and has it snowing here thru 7pm. sweet mercy.

Yes, hrrr shows redevelopment in the upstate that keeps us going longer in the southern piedmont....and I dropped to 32!

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RAH update...

Given all the supporting evidence, 
will be increasing the snow amounts from 5 to 6 inch to 5 to 8 
inches across much of the NC Piedmont, tapering off to 2 to 4 inches 
across the central and northern Coastal Plain counties, to 1 to 2 
across the far SE counties. 
 
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Snow has begun just now in the far northeast Piedmont, and my surface temp quickly dropped back to 31. Will take to the obs thread, just wanted the system analysis folks to know that it has made it this far north and east. Good luck everybody! Interested to see how the enhanced area develops both for the central NC folk and for the coastal later today.

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