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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

What is "hitching"? Sorry for the novice question but I'm just trying to learn.

its not a technical term but what i mean by it is that the system will stall briefly, rotate to a more north to south orientation then continue pushing SE very very slowly.

 

Maybe stutter is a better word?

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1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

its not a technical term but what i mean by it is that the system will stall briefly, rotate to a more north to south orientation then continue pushing SE very very slowly

Ah, ok. So I guess it's the same thing when folks say the storm "pivots". That should mean a longer snowfall for certain areas. Cool, thanks!

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I think the models have underestimates the precip with this system... i was only forecasted 1-2 inches and the lates nam only put 1.93 inches in my backyard... and im currently sitting at 2 inches already with about 5-6 more hrs of snow left... I wouldnt be surprised if someone near the triangle didnt end up with close to a foot.

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1 minute ago, bess said:

I think the models have underestimates the precip with this system... i was only forecasted 1-2 inches and the lates nam only put 1.93 inches in my backyard... and im currently sitting at 2 inches already with about 5-6 more hrs of snow left... I wouldnt be surprised if someone near the triangle didnt end up with close to a foot.

yeah its a combination of things and one of those is the ratios. THe Kuchera system is good but flawed.  These systems love to over perform as well. the CHapel Hill area may be in that foot talk. They should be heavy for hours

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2 minutes ago, Snovary said:

To those in RDU Sref up again....deep breaths, things look good and the delay was forecasted

Yeah SREF looks like average of 6", low outlier at 3", high outliers at 8". But...it also says 1" should have fallen. We've got nothing so far hanging around.

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38 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

The west to east progression of the back edge of the system has appeared to slow somewhat.  This will allow totals to continue to pile up.  It would also be nice if it were to tilt more N-S rather than NE-SW, but I don't see any evidence of this at this time.

It should turn some as the upper low starts to cut off and turn more neutral

cQnGubR.png

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1 minute ago, oconeexman said:

1.5" of powder is hella better than the snow hole. Should be a good producer up the corridor. Hrrr continues to show redvelopment in the nw upstate in a couple hours. Will be interesting if it does then i prob can top 2".

Just don't see the redevelopment . The back edge is RACING east. About all out of NGa entirely. Don't see any pivoting or anything

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Rates are going to easily overcome sfc temps as this pivots east. The NAM is showing some intense banding on the SE side of this upper low. Someone in the Mebane/Hillsborough area up to the VA border is prob going to jackpot 10-12. Raleigh looks great to me for at least 5 to 6. The euro/NAM trended last min towards keeping this cutoff and even slightly strengthening as it heads east, which will spark a SLP offshore. This is a great setup for most of NC save the coastal plain.

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just don't see the redevelopment . The back edge is RACING east. About all out of NGa entirely. Don't see any pivoting or anything

Mack, I'm not so sure - I see the back edge slowing considerably in the Upstate on the Intellicast interactive radar - some pivot is also noted - but, I am an optimist! LOL

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14 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Yeah SREF looks like average of 6", low outlier at 3", high outliers at 8". But...it also says 1" should have fallen. We've got nothing so far hanging around.

I don't know where you are, but it's snowing decently here in south Durham and the cars and grass are coated.

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