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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening 

You havent read much of these posts?

Folks in Georgia were in mid 40's and in 45 minutes went to mid 30's and snow.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

If precip starts later in Wake I think we see a lot more mixing.  1-2” is a safe bet for wake.  

I thought the same thing yesterday afternoon but the models have increased .qpf a lot since then.  I really think we could be in the 3 to 6 range now. 

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10 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Currently at 44. Someone tell me how I can be at 44 but forecasted to get snow in 4 hours? HRRR has me down to 41 in an hour. Ain't happening 

What is your wet bulb... that's what u will drop too once the precip gets going. Also, the air mass behind the front is cold/dry and will aid in cooling. In other words don't seat the surface temps!

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24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

HRRR is definitely showing some enhancement along the escarpment w/ that meso low in NW SC(SE to NW sfc upslopping winds) and some frontogensis banding along that area due to the thermal boundary/temperature difference b/n the west/east sides of the mountains. Could definitely lead to some additional forcing/vertical motion in that area tonight.

Would that enhancement from the mesolow also extend into the southern piedmont? Perhaps into Charlotte? 

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That rap is valid at 4pm and wake barely has anything.   What in the world. 

Well, from the update that RAH put together at 7:40, I don't think they are paying to much attention to it, so I wouldn't put to much stock in it at this point. Not to say it can't and won't verify but I think the HRRR would be a better model to follow. Just my 2 cents.

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

But farther SW with the trough

I honestly hadn’t even looked at 5h. I do notice at 13 the precip does look a pretty good bit better for northern most NC and into the Danville VA area, knocking on my door. Nam imo a little improved at 0z.

MANY people will be extremely happy if the Nam’s depiction comes to fruition. Just a nice stream of moisture through the heart of the southeastern forum. It’s honestly even darn close up this way.

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