kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Winston salem Forsyth county pulled the trigger. No school tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Lookout said: normally that is the case but i don't think it will be so much of a problem this time as there is a very strong push in the low levels and the airmass is unusually cold. Seeing a 10 degree temp drop over the span of just 20 or 30 minutes behind the front in west/northwest ga. Yeah, they have finer resolution than the global models and if there are some meso effects from the mountains/topography they likely will pick up on it better than the coarser global models. Plus they are having input continuously put into them. I much rather have the HRRR on my side than not. Thanks Lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 22z HRRR makes you go hmmmmm from hour 2 through hour 10. Then the hour 11 frame hits and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 GSP is considering some upgrades. I've been HRRR'd many times though, so I'm not getting too excited yet. Quote As of 630 PM EST Tuesday: Still evaluating guidance in preparation for any upgrade decisions that may need to be made later this evening. Light snow or rain/snow mix has been slow to start across western zones, but hearing of reports of snow in the higher elevations of the NC mountains, with just recently a report from far NE GA, so it is coming, and snow is falling at temperatures in the mid 30s. 18z NAM/GFS both came in wetter/snowier, and each hour of the RAP/HRRR is following this trend, with the more concerning guidance peaking out at 5" even here in the Upstate. This seems a little excessive but CAMs are obviously picking up on some mesoscale banding that will be incredibly hard to narrow down. Would like to see the 21z SREF before making any final decisions, and this should be in by 8pm, so anticipate that any decisions on upgrades/expansions will be made by the 10pm evening news. In the meantime, have adjusted pops based on a slower onset as well, also lingering precip longer across eastern zones on Wednesday per latest CAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Snow, again in the DEEP South.. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: 22z HRRR makes you go hmmmmm from hour 2 through hour 10. Then the hour 11 frame hits and boom. those temps though.... usually the NAM is warmer, but not this case. I lean toward's the nam and pray i don't hit a wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: GSP is considering some upgrades. I've been HRRR'd many times though, so I'm not getting too excited yet. Good catch. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Someone let Widre know that the 23Z RAP is much quicker with the SNOW into the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 This vortex of energy carries with it an encasement of arctic air, to my eye, perhaps a lobe of the intense air mass we have experienced the last few weeks. Looks like a parting blow for now too as it moves through relatively quickly, but this thing is quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Light Snow in Lithia Springs. Would be nice to get 1-2”out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 23z HRRR faster and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CobbGaGirl Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: So does that mean NW Ga actually gets more snow then forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Here's a case where suppression is a good thing for the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Any changes concerns of the 925 mb temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, broken024 said: Any changes concerns of the 925 mb temps? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 At this point it is time to let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I will say latest short range models have cut back on QPF and are starting to show the leeside minimum more.. for what its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownS.EasternVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 So the 12km Nam just dropped another 5-6 inches in SEVA. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, DownS.EasternVa said: So the 12km Nam just dropped another 5-6 inches in SEVA. Should be interesting. That was 5 hours ago. Come back at 9:00 and see the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: No Meant to say any concerns. So this doesn't look bad? Will come down with precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 RDU down to 35 as of 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norwegian Cyclone Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 NWS RAH had a little update in their latest discussion: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 740 PM Tuesday... Upper trof edging east is right on track, with mid cloudiness reaching the Triad during the past hour. Timing of the precip is on track as well, with latest HRRR soundings in the Triad indicative of saturation in the -12 to -18 growth zone a little before midnight, with the Triangle area following suit a couple of hours later. Initial light precip will begin to blossom behind the front as it moves into the western Piedmont after midnight, but may not reach the ground for a couple of hours afterwards, with coverage continuing to spread east through morning. Any changes prior to arrival of 00Z guidance will be to update hourly grid trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Rap is giving Greenville, SC .39 liquid. Hrr is giving them .43 liquid. Both models show less than .05 falling with temps above freezing. Hard to imagine that area not getting at least 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RDU down to 35 as of 8pm 32 up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I will say latest short range models have cut back on QPF and are starting to show the leeside minimum more.. for what its worth Dont see where anything has cut back on qpf or totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Light snow in Boone on the king street webcam 36/23 cloudy here last check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 I think RDU will flirt w/ 32/33 for a few hours tomorrow morning, however if banding does develop like the GFS/NAM are indicating, w/ 850temps crashing to -5 to -10 after 12pm, the cold air aloft will be dragged down dynamically and temps should fall into the 20's. Not really overly concerned about temps. However, I do agree ratios in wake county will hard pressed to rise above 10:1 prior to 1 or 2 pm. If we can get some residual banding late into the afternoon, 15:1 could be possible for a couple hours w/ some light to moderate snow. However, per the GFS/NAM/RGEm, there will be a band setting up in the triad or triangle which will drop roughly .5 to .7 QPF. That area is likely to see some good rates/accumulations/ratios. Could totally see someone getting 6 - 8 inches out of that (maybe the hillsborough/roxboro area???). That said, most will likely fall in the 3 to 6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: RDU down to 35 as of 8pm Wet bulb is 30.5. I think we're looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Perhaps I've been reading things incorrectly, but I thought precip was arriving in Wake County around 6-7AM and lasting for 6-7 hours. That would have it ending around 1PM. Has the timing shifted? or amounts decreased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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