Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18Z RGEM continues the theme of a longer duration/higher qpf event. You have to love how we're trending going into kickoff. This is indeed a rarity for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Well general consensus on a quick glance at local mets 4 o'clock news, 1/2-1" at most! CJ just increased his snowfall total to 1-2 inches due to "new data" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Nice! Thank you sir!! Burrel, don't you dare say that to me right now! don't worry RGEM actually pushed cutoff east a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: I would cash out with that in Greensboro right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Flirting with 4" imby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The Canadian suite has filled in the precip in western areas all along....so, win for those if it ends up being correct without a relative minimum there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Looking at live radar and noticing a short line of storms forming in the gulf just south of the FLA/AL line. Is that a sign of more moisture? or is it of no consequence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 this may be a MackBomb Special for the Upstate - maybe 3+ inches? - CJ is more optomistic on totals - of course, will know in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: This one scares me a bit for SE Wake. Thats a sharp gradient right on the Wake JoCo line. Just as I was feeling this was a sure thing, the dreaded gradient creeps in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reedski Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Seems like CAE is always right on the line. Hoping for a good snow but looking like mostly a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 For you in the GSP forecast area....save this link shared by all. It's been creeping up for the past 2 hours. Not sure of update timings..HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 over in the Obs thread someone just posted light snow in Greenville SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Ive never seen a build up of air this sharp. Once it spills over mountains its game time. Perfect visual. Unfortunately, I think that is what is really going to be a limiting factor for the NEGA/Upstate area, cold always, ALWAYS takes longer than forecast to make it over the mtns, and with our limited precip problems, being a fast mover, and how worm we got today, it is going to be a struggle. Looks like a lot of our early precip will be rain and that will further hinder our situation. I really hope I'm wrong, and Lookout and Burrel and others are much better at this than me, but I just feel like I have seen this too many times and I think it will be a struggle anywhere west of Spartanburg in the upstate, and outside of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 That gradient on the wake/Joco line is the 3/2 gradient. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 For our Georgia friends... NWS AtlantaVerified account @NWSAtlanta 43m43 minutes ago Here is the projected timing of the rain/snow line into north/central GA this evening into the early morning hours. The precipitation intensity may be fairly light to start with a better surge in moisture overnight, especially from LaGrange northeast to Athens. #gawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: That gradient on the wake/Joco line is the 3/2 gradient. Relax. AND its mostly due to low ratios. Qpf still .4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow haven said: over in the Obs thread someone just posted light snow in Greenville SC I’m in highlands right now. Not Greenville. Sorry posted that in an earlier post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Perfect visual. Unfortunately, I think that is what is really going to be a limiting factor for the NEGA/Upstate area, cold always, ALWAYS takes longer than forecast to make it over the mtns, and with our limited precip problems, being a fast mover, and how worm we got today, it is going to be a struggle. Looks like a lot of our early precip will be rain and that will further hinder our situation. I really hope I'm wrong, and Lookout and Burrel and others are much better at this than me, but I just feel like I have seen this too many times and I think it will be a struggle anywhere west of Spartanburg in the upstate, and outside of elevation. Not your average cold behind the mountains though. And looks as if front comes through hours before precip! I'm hopeful on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow haven said: over in the Obs thread someone just posted light snow in Greenville SC that poster is in Highlands, NC at 4100feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 48 minutes ago, Lookout said: hrrr keeps looking better. now has a band of 0.20 to 0.30 amounts cutting right across the athens area. ...even some amounts near 0.40 now for parts of the northern upstate. Lookout I noticed as well the short term models seem to be picking up on this as well better then the operational models. In december's storm our area in northern pickens county was forecasted to get very little and we ended up with just over 4 inches. The mountains just above us in Cashiers & Toxaway got crushed with 12-18 inches. The short term models picked up on the quicker changeover and increase in precip amount where the operationals played catch up. Are they just calculated better to handle local terrain and lee side down sloping impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That gradient on the wake/Joco line is the 3/2 gradient. Relax. Looking at the 12z vs 18z, the 18z is definitely better for Wake. Totals continue to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Burrel, don't you dare say that to me right now! DONT YOU PUT THAT EVIL ON HIM, RICKY BOBBY. RGEM is showing 13:1 or better ratios for the duration for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 56 minutes ago, griteater said: I like your area and @Eric area for this one With all the time and effort you put into model analysis and PBP, I always root for you to cash in. It worked out very well for you last winter! Thank you for all you contribute to the board. Hopefully everyone cashes in this go-around. 14 minutes ago, griteater said: Don't shoot me for posting this, but you can get your old school 1980's weather channel local forecast here at this site. Just plug in your city - http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=raleigh%2C+nc To make it truly 1980's old school TWC, you need to have the Yellowjackets' "And You Know That" playing in the background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not your average cold behind the mountains though. And looks as if front comes through hours before precip! I'm hopeful on this one! Mack we know how this usually plays out but I am also hopeful. This front came all the way from Siberia. That has to mean something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Watch this area over the next few hours. By 7PM this area should be exploding with moisture and will be our moisture "train." we want to see great QPF in this area going into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not your average cold behind the mountains though. And looks as if front comes through hours before precip! I'm hopeful on this one! Dude...you will be GTG. Here is the WB Calc. Go to a WXUnderground station and run the #'s. You will wetbulb and the temps will crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 GFS just doubled QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 18Z GFS is going bonkers, too. .5 qpf for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: GFS just doubled QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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