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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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21 minutes ago, Norwegian Cyclone said:

Not sure about Wake County, but Chapel Hill started treating a few roads yesterday (I guess the last storm caught them a bit off guard, lol), and most of the major arteries (15-501, NC 54, etc.) look like they've been brined by now. Would be very surprised if Wake/Durham haven't followed suit.

Campus is brined as well. In fact, I crossed the street right after a brine truck passed. Kinda cool seeing it right after it’s come down

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR at the end of its run (take it for what it is) shows the same general area where lee-side enhancement often occurs such as in 2003 and 2013. If this occurs some places in Lincoln, Gaston, Mecklenburg, etc could see 3-6 inches in my opinion and could even be some thunder with elevated instability...

refcmp.us_ma (1).png

This would be huge for the CLT metro.

Storm has the feeling of a mountains robbing moisture situation to me, though. Relatively weak low, no gulf flow, and no Atlantic moisture makes it tough for me to get excited. Hopefully this is finally the one that overperforms.

 

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Another interesting KILM AFD..

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...virtually all 00z model guidance is
showing more precipitation on Wednesday than was being shown 24
hours ago. The culprit appears to be a sharper mid and upper
level trough now being depicted moving across the area. This
leads to winds in the 850-500 mb layer backing by maybe 20
degrees compared to yesterday's model runs, allowing the
northern Gulf of Mexico to be briefly tapped as a moisture
source and supplementing the meager Pacific moisture that is
being routed from the west. Where my quantitative precipitation forecast values were .02 to .04
yesterday, now a tenth of an inch or more is possible across
parts of the sandhills.

Of course the bigger issue is how much of that quantitative precipitation forecast falls as
snow. The GFS is a cooler than the NAM with its low-level
thermal profiles which would allow for a more rapid changeover
to snow, particularly west of I-95 during the morning hours. The
new 00z European model (ecmwf) is a compromise solution between the GFS and NAM,
and implies rain should change to snow across Hartsville and
Bennettsville by 9 am. Colder air aloft beneath the approaching
upper trough will continue to build eastward during the day,
offsetting any insolation trying to punch through the clouds and
allowing the changeover to occur in Lumberton by noon, and in
Elizabethtown and Whiteville by mid afternoon.

Given no warm nose aloft, this is likely to be a clean transition
from rain to snow without any sleet or freezing rain to deal
with. Forecast snowfall accumulations are up to 1 inch from
Bennettsville across northern Robeson and Bladen counties, with
less than half an inch from Darlington and Dillon to Lumberton
and Elizabethtown.

Precipitation is not likely to be as significant along the
coast as the Gulf of Mexico moisture connection is severed by
the time things get going here. Precip should end between 6-9 PM
along the coast, but even in Wilmington and Myrtle Beach there
could be a brief period of light snow at the tail end of the
event. Thinning moisture aloft should preclude any significant
snowfall totals here.
 

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Serious question: how reliable is the RAP at those longer leads? It has .3 qpf in the Triad by 10am with several more hours of snow to go. 

To my knowledge, they are not worthy honestly that far out. Take it with a grain of salt. Would love for that to verify.

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Excerpt from the Greenville-Spartanburg Area Weather Discussion at (as of 12:45pm today):

"Tonight, the main point of contention is the uptick in precipitation
amounts forecast across the far eastern zones, as the strong short
wave trough transition from positive to more of a neutral tilt,
resulting in an increase in deep layer forcing. This has always been
the primary concern with this event (and always is in these
situations): whether the increase in precip rates will occur across
our area, or more across the central/eastern Carolinas. With the
current trends in guidance, a warning will have to be considered for
areas roughly east of a Chester->Rock Hill->Concord->Salisbury line
(granted this may only include Union Co,
NC.)"

So it sounds like the NWS is considering upgrading the Winter Weather Advisory in Union County, NC and points east to a Winter Storm Warning.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

SREF Mean around 3.69" for MBY. Another big increase.

I think we are going to be just too far north for best precip, we should have nice ratios here but lighter rates. 2 to 3 inches would be my call, could be as low as 1.5 or as high as 4.5 (what NOAA would ay)

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