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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

Another word of caution, the RGEM has an amp bias at the end of its range, 48 hours out. That’s what we saw with 12z and 18z runs. The 00z RGEM run backed off quite a bit while the NAM/GFS were similar to their prior runs. I’m leaning towards the UK/NAM camp as it’s been pretty consistent with the overall idea, the NAM is likely a little low on qpf though. 

The GFS definitely had more moisture and trended better though with trough orientation. Whats UK look like?

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1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

Another word of caution, the RGEM has an amp bias at the end of its range, 48 hours out. That’s what we saw with 12z and 18z runs. The 00z RGEM run backed off quite a bit while the NAM/GFS were similar to their prior runs. I’m leaning towards the UK/NAM camp as it’s been pretty consistent with the overall idea, the NAM is likely a little low on qpf though. 

When do you remember the NAM being low on QPF. It is typically the model that has to have the precip totals cut in half to be realistic.

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5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Something tells me we should not measure over performance west of the Apps and translate that to what happens on the east side. 

I agree, I think foothills will probably get a dusting-inch at best. Most all models has that down slope skip to Greensboro on east. You may be in one of the best spots this time!!

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4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

When do you remember the NAM being low on QPF. It is typically the model that has to have the precip totals cut in half to be realistic.

Since the upgrade the NAM, especially 12km, can at times be too low. It’s not nearly as amped as it used to be before the upgrade and sometimes it’s underdone, all depending on the setup. Several pro Mets on here have indicated this as well. 

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10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The GFS definitely had more moisture and trended better though with trough orientation. Whats UK look like?

UK looks roughly the same at 5H, it has for quite a few runs now. UK is a blend of the CMC and NAM at 5H, the middle ground of them and the most likely solution imo. 

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2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Since the upgrade the NAM, especially 12km, can at times be too low. It’s not nearly as amped as it used to be before the upgrade and sometimes it’s underdone, all depending on the setup. Several pro Mets on here have indicated this as well. 

Found out that the NAM did not initialize the precip that was occurring in AR. Big mistake. That why it was so dry. Whew....

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9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

When do you remember the NAM being low on QPF. It is typically the model that has to have the precip totals cut in half to be realistic.

I agree...I do not remember, however, the KEY to this is the NAM had issues with initializing for the 0Z run tonight, per a # of different posts tonight. Just throwing that out there. We need to look at the 06Z run before we can ABSOLUTELY have a better read on where the NAM stands in relation to the other models. 

 

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To the Pro's out there...with the over abundance of snow being reported in Tenn and other areas, what implications can this have on our areas of the Carolinas. Is the system slowing down? Is it changing orientation to where it could hurt or help us? There has to be ramifications one way or the other. I have seen where persons have eluded to this translating to MORE totals, but we have to get this system past the APPS first. Just throwing those talking points out there. Hope everyone gets some snow. I know the CLT area has been screwed royally so far this winter, so I am rooting hard for my area, but hoping everyone gets some! 

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7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Found out that the NAM did not initialize the precip that was occurring in AR. Big mistake. That why it was so dry. Whew....

Yes, it seems to struggle at times with dry, cold air masses and generating qpf in them since the upgrade. The 00z run tonight is a good example of it not initializing well but also not handling qpf fields well given 5H setup. 

Also in my area for the last winter storm it had some runs showing 4-6” and quite a few closer to go time where it was showing a trace to 1”... I ended up with 3” here. 

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1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

Yes, it seems to struggle at times with dry, cold air masses and generating qpf in them since the upgrade. The 00z run tonight is a good example of it not initializing well but also not handling qpf fields well given 5H setup. 

Also in my area for the last winter storm it had some runs showing 4-6” and quite a few closer to go time where it was showing a trace to 1”... I ended up with 3” here. 

This is very informative. Thanks for sharing! 

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6 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I am certainly  not a  pro but  i wouldnt be too happy its snowing  more to the west. Might mean it snows less than forecast somewhere else.

I don't see how it would hurt. It's a totally different area. The model trends are more important than what's going on in W TN right now IMO 

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For upstate peeps, RGEM/ CMC  the best overall. All others are going to be very painful to watch from Pickens and Oconee counties. :(

With these leeward regeneration systems, the immediate lee is too close and and SE will do better, say Anderson to Fountain Inn and farther NE from there. Need a better low with over running for western areas.

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25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Although I don't have any evidence to back me up on this, I am expecting the change over to snow to take longer than forecast.  Just seems like that happens alot in these marginal temp situations.  If I see a dusting, I will consider myself lucky.

I am not to worried the warm air is shallow, a lot of people are too worried about that this time around IMO.....I bet it mixes with and changes to snow fairly fast actually probably 15-30 mins and flakes will be in it to start.....

Here is the sounding on the NAM for MBY right as it begins and you can see just how shallow the warm air is right around 1000 MB which is probably 300-400ft....

untitled.thumb.png.7b21f74f69412693b7100a9019f4882f.png

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14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

For upstate peeps, RGEM/ CMC  the best overall. All others are going to be very painful to watch from Pickens and Oconee counties. :(

With these leeward regeneration systems, the immediate lee is too close and and SE will do better, say Anderson to Fountain Inn and farther NE from there. Need a better low with over running for western areas.

It's ok, you won't have to watch any rain either! Highs in 50s tomorrow , full sun till about dark= snow fail in upstate.

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6 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I am not to worried the warm air is shallow, a lot of people are too worried about that this time around IMO.....I bet it mixes with and changes to snow fairly fast actually probably 15-30 mins and flakes will be in it to start.....

Here is the sounding on the NAM for MBY right as it begins and you can see just how shallow the warm air is right around 1000 MB which is probably 300-400ft....

untitled.thumb.png.7b21f74f69412693b7100a9019f4882f.png

I'm still trying to learn to read soundings.  Doesn't this show the temp above freezing all the way up to about 500 hPa?

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5 minutes ago, mryanwilkes said:

If that front drops another 75 miles or so, does that not bring in GOM potential? Asking for a friend.

A6224A8B-8812-42FB-8A63-6F5E55CE5433.jpeg

The band will slowly sag southeast and then east in front of the upper level trough that is moving SE, then east.  The tricky part is where it fades/reforms etc.  There is a southwesterly feed at mid and upper levels supplying moisture, but there won't be a surface low coming out of the gulf.

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