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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Lol @ GFS. Last one to get a clue. I've noticed when it's off and starts correcting it does in like baby steps. Happened over the past 4 cycles with this storm and several others preceeding. Has anyone else noticed this. Crazy, seems like it would just jump at once and correct.

Anyway the beat goes on. Like my 2-5 for Triad and shot for a 6 inch lollipop along 85 in NC which runs from Charlotte to VA line up above Durham. And it's up that way 0z models are show ing this.  Nam will be totally different by 6z if it starts off correctly. Biggest hurdle is gonna be Radar watching in the morning. We'll hear a lot of deep breaths being taking as radar goes through a down tick right before coming back to life tommorow night. So weenies be forewarned and don't panic/jump. 

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1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

Trending to Wake County....... again!

TW

Well, since the NAM was obviously a flawed run, and the GFS is on-board, that means we will have some snowfall across the region. Now we can focus on the amounts and who will get the higher totals. Right now the Raleigh area is favored, but I would venture to say that the jackpot may move around a bit in the next 24 hours.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Lol @ GFS. Last one to get a clue. I've noticed when it's off and starts correcting it does in like baby steps. Happened over the past 4 cycles with this storm and several others preceeding. Has anyone else noticed this. Crazy, seems like it would just jump at once and correct.

Anyway the beat goes on. Like my 2-5 for Triad and shot for a 6 inch lollipop along 85 in NC which runs from Charlotte to VA line up above Durham. And it's up that way 0z models are show ing this.  Nam will be totally different by 6z if it starts off correctly. Biggest hurdle is gonna be Radar watching in the morning. We'll hear a lot of deep breaths being taking as radar goes through a down tick right before coming back to life tommorow night. So weenies be forewarned and don't panic/jump. 

Warm air....

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6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Remember that's 10 to 1.  I'd add an inch to those totals , which is Winter Storm Warning for several folks in NC

We've definitely seen well over 10 to 1 ratios in these areas before but from my experience it isn't easy to forecast. I'm not sure I'd just assume 13:1 2 days out when we're still talking about potential for temperature issues and issues with dry area in the dendritic growth zone.

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Just now, Dunkman said:

We've definitely seen well over 10 to 1 ratios in these areas before but from my experience it isn't easy to forecast. I'm not sure I'd just assume 13:1 2 days out when we're still talking about potential for temperature issues and issues with dry area in the dendritic growth zone.

http://nickelblock.com/?p=1061
good explanation for dendritic growth zone.

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Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Still playing catch-up I see. The 0z RGEM and the 0z CMC close it off.

Yes but NAM doesn’t close it off and keeps it oriented like the GFS. The RGEM also trended to closing off slower as did the CMC so it appears the NAM/GFS have the 5H setup nailed. The 12z Euro was also similar to the NAM/GFS and UK too. 

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1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

Yes but NAM doesn’t close it off and keeps it oriented like the GFS. The RGEM also trended to closing off slower as did the CMC so it appears the NAM/GFS have the 5H setup nailed. The 12z Euro was also similar to the NAM/GFS and UK too. 

0z Nam was a flawed run. Didn't you hear? It was discounted.

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11 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

0z Nam was a flawed run. Didn't you hear? It was discounted.

The 18z and 12z showed the same. It’s hard to bet against NAM/Euro/UK at this range... and my point was that the RGEM/CMC trended WORSE with the vort taking longer to close off. That adds validity to the NAM/Euro/UK idea. 

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Another word of caution, the RGEM has an amp bias at the end of its range, 48 hours out. That’s what we saw with 12z and 18z runs. The 00z RGEM run backed off quite a bit while the NAM/GFS were similar to their prior runs. I’m leaning towards the UK/NAM camp as it’s been pretty consistent with the overall idea, the NAM is likely a little low on qpf though. 

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