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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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8 minutes ago, Wow said:

Eastern areas probably don't want a storm as amped as RGEM given how far west the upper low cuts off.  Western Piedmont and mtns will definitely want this as precip will back build as gulf moisture is drawn in.

Yeah surface temps are iffy but I will take that chance its cold aloft so if we get that coastal to go I think we do ok....at least 2-4" 

This isnt a bad look for us, the frame before is wet too but we are mixing though again I would rather take my chances we can overcome the shallow warm air with rates versus not having the cut off and SLP off the coast...

P6_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif.254849903e8c7dc33d7bed296af877e1.gif

 

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11 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

18z RGEM +54hrs at 500, 700 and 850mb, granted, this is in the 10% right now and ideally most in NC would like these centers to be to our south.

That look imo with the vort is an absolute perfect pass for over performing if people are viewing this in southern VA. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

That look imo with the vort is an absolute perfect pass for over performing if people are viewing this in southern VA. 

Amen. I would love to see it happen but it is the big outlier atm. I think tonights NAM run will trend a little better for our areas. We shall see.

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59 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

18z RGEM +54hrs at 500, 700 and 850mb, granted, this is in the 10% right now and ideally most in NC would like these centers to be to our south.

That looks very nice. 500mb vort max is pretty far south and it looks like the 700mb omega tracks thru the core of our forum for those who are expecting some snow. Certainly seems on the upper end of the model guidance, but we'll see how it trends. I have to say, the Euro has been ahead of the curve with this one when you go back a few days

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Just now, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Oh...just hoping someone would explain that process to me. How can dry air cause mixing issues?

I think drying in the dendrite growth zones can result in something other than snow.  In the past, I think this was primarily associated with lighter precip - as in freezing drizzle or snow grains.  I don't remember it being something that would really impact rain vs. snow.

TW

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5 minutes ago, Solak said:

Current point forecast for my part of JoCo:

Tuesday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. Light and variable wind.
Wednesday
A chance of rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow.

Yeah...this is why the comparisons to 2003 need to stop. That was a brutal arctic front. This is mediocre.

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