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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The destruction of the precip band as it crosses  north ga only to reform quickly as it moves past has been maddening to see on the models. To see virtually *everyone* except north ga see at least some light snow in every direction is just too much. The good news is the models in general have been trending wetter and the eastern/southeastern upstate will be fine but it sure looks like there could be an area of super screwjobbing over north central ga/far western upstate...between the edge of downslope flow and the refiring of precip. The latest runs have me in the snow (except gfs) but it wouldn't take much for me not to be. Considering history here at ga's leeside screwzone, i wouldn't bet against it. 

 

Yea I feel ya Lookout. The snow hole has pretty much all of Oconee getting the shaft while every one else gets at least a dusting. It truely is disheartening! 

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20 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

ICON and new RGEM looks way better for the Atlanta area...wide spread 1-3 inches. I could see continue trends upward...finally models might be catching on to an earlier gulf moisture tap due to a sharper trough.

I would be wary as the last 2 events the RGEM has not done too well.  The 12km NAM has been hot and virtually shuts Atlanta out.  

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1 minute ago, oconeexman said:

Yea I feel ya Lookout. The snow hole has pretty much all of Oconee getting the shaft while every one else gets at least a dusting. It truely is disheartening! 

It's one thing to not get snow but it's quite another when you can point in every direction and say they got some. I know we aren't talking big amounts or anything but it's quite ridiculous. I sure am thankful i got to see that big snow back in december but it's frustrating that despite all this cold that we can't get anything worthwhile here at home. 

Just now, Poimen said:

That's the end of the run. Will have to come back at 0Z to see if it's the same. 

Probably more past that for upstate/nc foothills. rgem has 850mb low at the foot of the mountains and likely upslope  flow/enhancement 48 hours and beyond. 

850wh.us_ma.png

850rh.us_ma.png

 

850hvv.us_ma.png

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The rgem and I believe the nam both show a mesolow in the upstate, as well as the icon now.  The nam just petered everything out strangely per e Webb. It seems there is a very good chance that more moisture will be available for the piedmont. Well see. I'm surprised with the trends there is not a bit more caution from local Mets. They all seem to be poo pooing it. Trends today have been really good. If we can get the nam to show up I think local Mets will start to pay attention.

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23 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The destruction of the precip band as it crosses  north ga only to reform quickly as it moves past has been maddening to see on the models. To see virtually *everyone* except north ga see at least some light snow in every direction is just too much. The good news is the models in general have been trending wetter and the eastern/southeastern upstate will be fine but it sure looks like there could be an area of super screwjobbing over north central ga/far western upstate...between the edge of downslope flow and the refiring of precip. The latest runs have me in the snow (except gfs) but it wouldn't take much for me not to be. Considering history here at ga's leeside screwzone, i wouldn't bet against it. 

 

Is this front coming in a SW-NE orientation or almost a due W/E orientation? It makes a difference as to how much downslope we get. Gainesville always gets the downsloping more than me, and Athens, well; they're just screwed in this situation I hate to say it.

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5 hours ago, Brick Tamland said:

Love seeing that green on top of me!

Damn it, Brick.  If you are going to hang out somewhere else 90% of the time, don't run back here when an event shows and post crap in the storm threads. Look at your first post..

It looks like it might not be your typical clipper coming over the mountains, though, if it taps into the Gulf. 

Let me translate that for you.

"It might not be typical if it does non-typical things"

  in other words nonsense.  If you want to post here as a storm only guest, you need to pick up your game.

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3 minutes ago, knowledgeispwr said:

NWS in Raleigh's current thinking. They believe they will issue advisories tonight.
 


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here&#39;s the latest winter weather briefing for Central NC. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ncwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ncwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/snow?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#snow</a> <a href="https://t.co/CIdQEpEWku">pic.twitter.com/CIdQEpEWku</a></p>&mdash; NWS Raleigh (@NWSRaleigh) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSRaleigh/status/953025871656472586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

post didn't show up

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32 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Probably more past that for upstate/nc foothills. rgem has 850mb low at the foot of the mountains and likely upslope  flow/enhancement 48 hours and beyond. 

850wh.us_ma.png

850rh.us_ma.png

 

850hvv.us_ma.png

Ha, we get that kind of look at 850mb and it's game on in the upstate, S Foothills, and S Piedmont

The frantic tension with the posts in here is a trip. Love it 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

that RGEM/ICON does not look good for Wake.  Must be what RAH is looking at.  

Well, GSP is doing the opposite.  They are ignoring the RGEM/ICON/NAM and going with the globals.  It seems each forecast office is going with the model(s) that give(s) the least amount of snow for their particular forecast area.  I might do the same thing, if I had their jobs.  :D

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Just now, calculus1 said:

Well, GSP is doing the opposite.  They are ignoring the RGEM/ICON/NAM and going with the globals.  It seems each forecast office is going with the model(s) that give(s) the least amount of snow for their particular forecast area.  I might do the same thing, if I had their jobs.  :D

And that’s what people don’t understand. Most of our forecasts, if we’re not correct, nobody cares.

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