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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I remember . It was 03. I was forecast the afternoon of the storm for 1-3" was bumped up to 3-5" by 10. Temp was 49 in the evening, started about 1 AM, temps crashed, got about 4-5", Spartanburg had som 10-12" total

I got 0 inches from that one... which is typical climo for my locale.

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

That looks like more precip in western areas than it has been showing on the UKMet though 

Grit,  Have you noticed depending on the model the focus areas of highest precip seem to be in several different places for NC?  Ranging from just east of Charlotte, to north of Charlotte to northeast of Raleigh?  No real consensus on where the top amounts will occur that i can see.  All over the board in NC sort of.

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Grit,  Have noticed depending on the model the focus areas of highest precip seem to be in several different places for NC?  Ranging from just east of Charlotte, to north of Charlotte to northeast of Raleigh?  No real consensus on where the top mounts will occur that i can see.  All over the board in NC sort of.

That's why I'm hoping they meet in the middle. Even better, just spread from Charlotte to Roanoke Rapids. The UK was a good look for almost all of NC. 

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4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Grit,  Have you noticed depending on the model the focus areas of highest precip seem to be in several different places for NC?  Ranging from just east of Charlotte, to north of Charlotte to northeast of Raleigh?  No real consensus on where the top amounts will occur that i can see.  All over the board in NC sort of.

I like the idea of a decent precip band rolling off the mountains for all areas to the coast, with enhanced pockets

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20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Is it possible the GFS is going with more of an energy transfer similar to a Miller B?     While the other models are simply showing a frontal passage with no transfer?

I think the GFS is indicating a more progressive frontal passage sweeping through the eastern U.S. that allows one wave to ride up the coast.  Other global models are presenting a slower frontal passage that allows two waves to ride up the coast before sweeping through the area. 

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2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

all the temp concerns are silly. this is a arctic front. worry about how much moisture can be tapped from the gulf. 

And what if the cold air gets held up by the mountains and delayed a few hours and the precip is mostly gone before the cold air is deep enough for snow? We've seen that happen before and the upstate warm bubble are both worth keeping an eye on.

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Well, here in East Georgia I’m definitely rooting hard against the GFS and NAM... Have yet to see as much as a flake in Athens this year. Snowed to our north and west and to our southeast. Would be hard to watch decent snows fall to the west, only to go poof and reorganize to our east. 

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8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

all the temp concerns are silly. this is a arctic front. worry about how much moisture can be tapped from the gulf. 

NEVER discount mixing issues in central NC. Several models are showing BL concerns. That's not to say that it won't change over to all snow but a lot of times a whole lot of precip is lost to rain before the changeover.

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