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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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29 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Maybe I'm getting the models confused but I thought the NAM had more than .5" for Wake?   That seems a little anemic to me.  But could definitely end up verifying.  
Can someone post a 2-run comparison?

Going off the 10:1 ratio there is a little more. Problem is we will need higher precip rates to drive the temp down.

So basically if precip is light, we get rain mixed snow showers. If rates are higher we get all snow (after a start of rain) with the potential of higher than 10:1 rates.

 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

You might be just a little too far east. 

:lmao: for real though, this sort of reminds me of Feb 2013. Vort was so strong passing overhead you had heavy convective snow. Slightly different setup (that was closer to a ULL) but looking at 7h and the setup I think there's some potential for surprises especially with such cold air involved. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

:lmao: for real though, this sort of reminds me of Feb 2013. Vort was so strong passing overhead you had heavy convective snow. Slightly different setup (that was closer to a ULL) but looking at 7h and the setup I think there's some potential for surprises especially with such cold air involved. 

And whether it closes off or not is important. Should get a better handle today. 

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