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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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Means that the upper wave is stronger (deeper) and slowing down, with more upper dynamics to support rising motion and precip generation. Visually you see it as a closed contour on the charts

Thank you for a very understandable response. So when it closes off, that means better for those of us looking for higher precip totals?

 

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

EURO/NAM is a good look aloft (500mb) for your standard/stock moderate to significant winterstorm in NC. (3 to 5 inch type storm). 

Could be fairly widespread with that look too.....might not get all 100 counties with accumulating snow but its probably the best look for a event to do that in a while....

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7 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. 

and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. 

well, given that the kuchera maps show higher totals than the standard 10:1 tell you all you need to know on that one. 

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3 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

um just glancing at 2 meter temps on euro i would be worried about that raleigh to just east of charlotte. 

and i don't see where "high ratios" would be anywhere close to Piedmont Triad...correct me if I am wrong please. 

With this type of system, temps will drop once precip starts. Many of us will/may see a start as rain/mix, but it should quickly switch over as long as rates increase like the euro depicts. This would be true all the way to the coast, especially the NE. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

With this type of system, temps will drop once precip starts. Many of us will/may see a start as rain/mix, but it should quickly switch over as long as rates increase like the euro depicts. This would be true all the way to the coast, especially the NE. 

I understand the logic, but I went through the euro run and watched the temperatures as the 6 hour round of moisture exited. Just didn't show it to my eyes unless I overlooked something. Temps really only dropped mountains/foothills, they actually went UP near Raleigh, etc. If there was more moisture than modeled for a longer duration, I could see the potential there on the back side esp west. 

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It’s a snow sounding but I doubt those are dendrites given the lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone, probably plates.
I'm going to buy some collegiate meteorology texts. I'm going to learn how to read this stuff. I've already got a BS in Fire Science. The science shouldn't be too difficult for me. LOL
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